Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi onlyoneshareme,

Great handle. Totally agree.

It often takes a death by a thousand cuts to find a gem like this!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Interesting article in FT on AAL’s results. Mentions impact of Russian Ukraine war on commodity and that AAL is a prime beneficiary.

https://www.ft.com/content/84376eb2-3191-4541-9575-9d77e97eb0e2

If you compare AAL sp with APF for 5 years on google finance. See how they follow each other and then a huge delta opens up!

Not saying APF will close it entirely as there is a different commodity mix but given that we sell a lot of the same especially Nickel that delta imo is overstated and I see it reducing.

Usual caveats

Trek

Come on Scott he is a politician.

We promised sanctions against Russia!

Apparently we have! Disgusting our leaders!

What hope is there for Mr Young until it suits his agenda!

A pretty ****ed off Trek… we’ll probably a bit harsh but you know what I mean!

With the usual caveats!

Trek

Why do posters mislead like that….?

Look at slide 6…

? Debt funding is at the level of the target and non-recourse to Seplat Energy plc

? Equity to be funded from existing cash resources ($274m as at Q3 2021) and through undrawn RCF ($350m available)

? No requirement to access equity capital from the market via a capital raise

? Final consideration will be net of lockbox. Working capital and other adjustments reflecting net revenues since effective date of 1 January 2021

? Dividend policy remains unchanged.

“https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/wojc2c5e/seplat-acquisition-of-mpnu-presentation.pdf

Here is a nice summary from LSE….

‘ Seplat Energy PLC - Lagos-based oil and gas company focused on Nigeria - Agrees to acquire 100% of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited from Exxon Mobil Corp for USD1.28 billion. The acquisition encompasses the entire offshore shallow water business of ExxonMobil in Nigeria. Seplat says the shallow water business has a skilled local operating team and a track record of safe operations, producing 95,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020. The acquisition will be funded through existing cash resources and credit facilities as well as a new USD550 million loan facility and USD275 million offtake facility’

Even with a potential 7+ TCF gross and macro tailwinds the market is ambivalent by not even pricing us at ATH’s!

SEPL know that. That is why imo the generous quarterly divi is here to stay as a move away would no help the SP.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Mickey,

“ Not interested in portfolio droppers, we can all do that .”

Ok point taken.

Peer comparison is one of my successful research techniques for understanding when to buy, when to sell or when to choose to hold.

I was explaining why I bought GCAT over others by showing differentiation from research.

I will keep it to self forthwith and perhaps not be as constructively critical.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Yep the 25m intersections are quite frankly outstanding! However, let’s have some balance here. The market has accepted that we are funded for this campaign.

The next results IMO dictate at what price the next raise will be at. The earn ins are substantial which clearly adds value but imo the market is waiting on the next results to gauge an anticipated discounted placing. That’s why imo even though we have added more resource the SP is lower.

My own view is buying now, given that we are drilling historically producing rocks the current SP will be below the next placing price or at an absolute worse equals.

I think 3p ish is a great entry price and expect a pop on JORC compliant results then hope we raise much higher.

So for now we are reasonably priced and the risk is to the upside. I don’t see good results and say a 2p placing given the postcode, macro tailwinds and quality of our BoD.

In terms of upside, well we have already seen 6p here. No reason why we don’t visit that again but imo it would be smart to take profits along the way. Selling half on a double is a real possibility here. Then one can switch off!

Usual caveats

Trek

Interesting that you mentioned Bitcoin. I bought ARB at 4.3p average that was after buying and then selling after the IPO! It suffered for an age. I held, traded a few but couldn’t understand how it was so overlooked. Didn’t make sense according to my math and then boom!

I sold some on the way up to 60p , then 200p and exited completely when it dropped back at 160p or thereabouts from memory.

It enabled me to have funds to build a pf. Had I held the lot and sold at the top I would have netted £1m profit!

It doesn’t work like that though as no one can time the lows and highs to perfection and I tend to sell on a double and exit. As it happened I only had a few left at the top cox]a my same math told me it was way overvalued beyond 80p. Interestingly my initial sells aligned with the director.

However, what it does do is give one confidence about one’s own DYOR, when to buy and as importantly when to sell. Look at the ARB sp now!

I have many other stories but I am Not saying IQAI will follow the same path as ARB. Just saying that I am backing my own convictions and not the current markets view. I get some wrong like SNG recently but that was a binary event. I also get some very right like TXP where I have built a position from the teens right up to 70p and it will imo get to £10 in a few years.

You really gotta have your own conviction in this game. Especially if like myself, you depend on your investments for your own retirement income and capital gain.

Furthermore, I am backing TB coz he knows what’s best for him and his family. Most of us have the same objectives, and then of course to help others as many fortunate investors have done when things come off.

I am backing the data and the alliances that IQAI are making.

I am backing my judgement here to know when to buy and as importantly when to sell and have averaged down at this low price. 5p or 8p if we hit 50p is still good profit!

Finally if it all goes tits up it will hurt but will not kill and if it goes well I see a £50m mcap very quickly!

If this software is proven then why wouldn’t it be included off the shelf in MRI scanners. Why wouldn’t it be adopted as clinical best practice given it’s accuracy, efficacy and huge time savings over standard of care.

The potential is quite staggering compared to this lowly mcap.

Apologies as the post is a bit narcissistic and rampy and let’s face it completely against the grain of the SP so do DYOR.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Cane,

If you read my posts over there, I cover the debt. Note their intention to use cash from Brazil sale to return to shareholders or for acquisition. If debt was an issue they would use the funds to pay it down. It’s not an issue. Most is fixed rate; $2bn of $4.5bn is either Libor, Euribor, TJLP or US-LIBOR tied + a fixed %. So small variable rate. All well covered by predictable income. Divi is 1.9x covered. Don’t use Morningstar or HL, their metrics are wrong!

On APF, how long will it take for the market to wake up to the need to source metals outside of Russia. For sure it won’t happen over night and I very much doubt they, Russia, will be cut off from SWIFT, but there will be a push back against this horrendous bully!

Obviously APF can’t fill the void but it’s well placed. The subsequent increase in commodity prices will more than compensate for any FX headwinds.

I managed to buy on the recent market drop at sub 140 but fully intend to add as I can. I also like the divi’s that come out closely together around Christmas. Fills an income gap for me.

Usual caveats

Trek

Interesting first post. UBS? Lol

Usual caveats

Trek

I have covered the borrowings and pe in previous posts.

Question is define undervalued. It’s not just GLO. It applies to lots of UK stocks especially on a US peer basis.

We are what the market says we are and that unfortunately seems to be based on buys and sells rather than fundamentals.

If you plot GLO to the FTS250 index you will see bar a couple of disconnects we track it. That is a general indication of fair value.

I believe the SP is manipulated by the MM to keep it range bound, it’s their job else there would be huge extremes. I referenced MM schemes before which are MiFID2 compliant. IMO that accounts for the regular small number of share trades put through. You expect to see lots of single trades for a divi scrip but it’s bau hear and on other stocks.

I can regularly sell 30 or even 50k shares but often can’t buy 10k or even 2k without it going NT. Even during the last drop I was quoted 181 to buy when the SP was supposed to be 175.

This is now one of my biggest positions in my pf , that’s how I rate it for income but I have said before that I don’t expect this one to shoot up. Many in this sector trade at a discount to NAV.

I think 250p is a fair price and below 200p gives over 6% yield. The pe is skewed by them paying down debt. It’s a pretty low risk investment. We even now have an ESG B rating badge!

I expect the SP will track the divi. So when they next increase the divi by 10% the SP will lift to keep it in the 5.5-7% range.

Any upside surprises could come from energy price hikes. That is similar to APF in the commodities space. But what goes up usually comes back down.

It’s a really boring hold this one and I think now is bargain basement for income. I am not a fan of trusts, oeic’s, ETF’s etc as I would rather build my own income.

So undervalued or fair value you really have to decide based on what you are looking for and looking at peers.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Thanks AG,

You are spot on in your assessment. The market expects all the boxes to be ticked. Postcode, resource, production & expo upside, BoD, prudence, cash raised not on any terms, operational autonomy.

It maybe that you miss just one fundamental and the market is brutal….

Many are down +80% from highs….

Ecr, last raise knocked it for 6! Even before the tragic loss of ceo and it otherwise had very good fundamentals.

Cobr with 3 IOCG targets, their ceo moved on, then came Finance hurdles and ops constraints.

Even the likes of PUR a Canadian miner that’s producing and exploring with some bonanza grades on steroids the BoD managed to fk it up with poor ops and cost over runs.

LND will soon v likely have 2m ounces but the SP is well below even the CEO’s 60p because they aren’t moving quickly enough, lack of trust and the market smells a raise.

Each has a story but the same brutal market response…

Will be good if a few here call out the not so good as well as the good else it just becomes like Zac’s charts. Everything is going up or about to go up and yet when you look across the small caps it’s been pretty much the opposite for over a year now!

I will be adding here as funds become available. I intend to buy in gradually. Got my first mill though.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Simple comparison for me is looking at what you get with other goldies with a similar mcap.. 5-40m

On the plus for GCAT is it’s JORC and that it’s producing. It’s also in one of the best postcodes in the world. Downside is it’s Kenya/Tanzania although both are among the better African countries to do business it’s not premium.

Of the better copper gold picks from memory imo..

CMRS - Cyprus, 10m, in JV expo stage, VMS
CCZ - Oz, Zambia, 14m, expo stage, 2 poss IOCG also lithium
CHF, Cyprus, Canada, 7m, poly backed. Expo stage, VMS
COBR, Oz, 12m, expo stage 3 poss IOCG
CGNR, Ireland/Finland 9m expo stage
Cora, 24m west africa, Mali,MRE/ DFS
ECR - Oz, 16m has own drills premium postcode, has resource, expo stage…

I could go on EEE, GRL, PALM, LEX, LND, PAF, PXC, ROCK, RRR, WSBN, SGZ, THR etc etc I have looked through them at least those smallcap miners with better postcodes. Many I hold but I will be tipping them into here and PXC as they reach a price point.

Whilst I would say they are all significantly undervalued atm, but then that’s what the market is. I would however, say on a peer basis GCAT is significantly undervalued imo. A close second would be LND as it has 1.5m resource, MRE. But I have sold some of them to put in here. Likewise I have sold others to add here and to divi payers with the aim going forward of just focusing on a few small cap goldies and a few small cap Pharma’s. Those I believe will recover strongest when sentiment improves and ultimately have a chance of providing an income. GCAT really has that possibility as SHG has done.

Usual caveats

Trek

I grabbed a few today. Been on my watchlist for ages to get the quarterly divi. Was afraid it would pull right back after I bought but imo this acquisition is transformational for seplat and hopefully a new base at 100p.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi itsyou,

Results Monday. Will have some easier explanations.

What it says is ONC’s databank (SeroTag) can identify (then predict) the auto antibody (AA) response to cancers.

The body uses Checkpoint inhibitors (CPI’s) to defend itself from intrusion, fight cancer cells.

If you can detect the change in AA then you get a read across CPI’s. This can also lead to early cancer detection as in EarlyCDT lung.

When giving Chemotherapy you basically super charge the immune system. That enhances the CPI’s. But Chemo is a bit of a sledge hammer.

If you then monitor the patients autoantibodies you can refine the treatment to have a better target. So more specific help for the CPI’s.

If you have a more targeted therapeutic then you are less likely to get an adverse immune response.

So think of AA’s as a command and control centre.

In business terms that translates to saving lots of effort, drugs, recovery time, more chance of success.

For the patient it’s patient specific drugs, faster recovery, etc

This is where the AI platform comes in to target the treatment for each patient.

The Daner-Farber cancer institute is a world leader. I also hold, underwater, IQAI a tiny little biotech that is working with them on development of their AI platform to detect and treat brain tumours, phase 1 starts soon. Not a tip but just where I have read about them.

I hope, well strongly believe you will make money here. Just gonna take a bit longer by the looks of things. A swift takeout may come along though as ONC embarrass a lot of major Pharma’s by how much they know!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Article on Greencoat wind. It’s a good read across to GLO. As always though with those articles they never mention the associated costs with holding trust/funds. GLO yields more, has more diversity and you only pay dealing costs…..

Of note….

‘ Russian aggression against the Ukraine and the economic sanctions that are likely to follow have the potential to unnerve the markets, especially as higher power prices would add further inflationary pressure. It is possible that Greencoat and other similar beneficiaries would be one of the few ways to help protect the value of your portfolio.’

Mmmm prescient.

Is it just me that sees this as the market seems agnostic. Oh well. Buying more sub 180!

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/an-ill-wind-could-the-ukraine-crisis-be-good-for-greencoat-uk-wind/?mc_cid=f15ea841b9&mc_eid=418bda054f

Usual caveats

Trek

Bought in today. Been on my watchlist for ages.

Fx concerns kept me away but I think the horrific situation with Russia could push up commodities prices and constrain Russian supply.

APF’s geographical footprint is favourable.

More importantly though is it’s inflation beating divi, quarterly and improving ops pipeline.

Anyone seeking out a similar whopping yield covered 1.9x by earnings, 7% quarterly with chance of a special, 10% yoy divi growth and ESG rated check out GLO. Energy provider across 20 countries mostly Europe but non UK.

Usual caveats

Trek

Thanks JSP, I don’t use Twitter or Meta or Amazon for that matter! Personal campaign against child abuse, tax avoidance and destroying the high street…..

Anyways, not long now. I hope!

“ IQ-AI has been working with the clinical team at the Medical College of Wisconsin (MCW) to qualify a new supplier for encapsulating the drug candidate. The Company is pleased to announce that a supplier has been contracted and the production of the capsules is now underway. IQ-AI anticipates the trial will commence in February 2022.”

Trek

Lots of questions on takeovers. Rather than answer all have a read of this. It’s succinct and in plain English.

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#stakebuilding

Trek

Via email so no link.

“ The level of disclosed Short Interest in SNG has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 0.59% on the previous trading day to 0.00% today. That is a movement of -0.59 percentage points.”

Trek

Could well see 30p pdq now the overhang has gone. Nice in out 10% trade on the cards if anyone has the cash.

Usual caveats

Trek