Member Info for TrekMadone

Well we will find out one way or another by early next week.

Down today on low volumes after a good run. Possibly PI’s softening the blow from HE1. Possibly that little tree shake we have expected. Who knows!

Copper price has moved up during October/November and so has the outlook. They needed until Friday to conclude the financing so theoretically we should know by Monday.

Usual caveats

Trek

well done mick,

me to, made cash on fist run following a zak mir tip.

my dec holdings show as over £1m ….lol! ii ****up! if only!

trek

Hi Jim,

I am not sure if you can mix a buyback with consolidation as the buyback is independently operated by Stifel based on criterion. No idea but it seems silly for 1 share!

My ii account is all over the place atm. They haven’t done the consolidation so my Dec holdings are now over £1m! lol!

Also they haven’t factored in recent buys yet.

I have emailed them. I guess others will be the same. I mean it’s surely not the first consolidation they have had to deal with!

Now up over the 1300 (65p) so obviously folk can’t sell anymore! lol!

Here’s hoping!..

Note article in FT today about US LNG exports…. Huge!

Just in time for US markets!

Usual caveats

Trek

I’d sell, if I held and could get 2p it’s likely to go lower imo.

Usual caveats

Trek

For sure nom,

The investors will have LB over a barrel! The leverage she has is knowing which insti’s still hold, so will be underwater and of course the assets. The PI’s will be a casualty again!

The only way she can return value to long suffering holders now is to strike the sweet spot and sell up. Going into production or a multi-drill campaign from here is just even more dilution.

Get the best deal she can, find helium and sell.

Hopefully then some folk get some cash back.

It’s a shocker this one and just goes to show how FoS many of the posters there are. The rampers are often worse for one’s cash. There weren’t many holders there that discussed possibilities other than eureka!

Usual caveats

Trek

Come on mick it’s not a surprise.

Forward rolling the drill costs and allowing for bigger teams + the delays one should have either realised they’d need cash for Itumbula or to raise during the drill to see them through after.

I had them raising during the next drill but the run of bad luck has made it earlier.

Question now is what price for the placing. The company will be held at ransom! I hope it doesn’t come with bucket loads of warrants as well! That is likely if the funders smell blood!

It could well be a Penny or even less as 28m mcap for sod all is pretty steep. Those funding would want cheap shares to flip and then warrants to keep as a baseline. So that way they get double success as they would only convert the warrants to shares if the drill hits the sweet spot.

LB is going to have to work hard to keep it to a straight equity placing but she has said ‘other finance’.

I don’t hold any anymore stock having now sold at a loss to move what was left. I think if I buy back it will be to trade the pivots and/or take a small position into the drill. But with all the confetti and a likely +60% drop today I wonder if it will be worth it!

So many investors there claiming to have big sums invested I hope it’s just the usual bravado and it comes good eventually. It’s just that, say if they raise at 1p, strike helium then the stock goes to 7p that's a 700% rise and would still leave many investors under water!

The market has been cruel getting PI’s to basically fund this!

Usual caveats

Trek

They have issued 1 new share so that 964,476,699 +1 divided by 20 = 48,223,835 a whole number!

Usual caveats

Trek

Gold, silver and copper all have supply challenges in common that suggest each has reached a peak level of mine production. For gold and silver, the mining industry is currently unable to mine enough to meet annual demand, without recycling.

As for copper, we are quickly approaching the lower limits of cut-off grades, meaning that we are almost at the point where reserves cannot be grown at all. In other words, peak copper.

The copper industry is in the grips of a structural supply deficit that, combined with inflationary cost pressures and resource nationalism in some of the world’s largest copper producers, is only expected to get worse.

Global shortages of the metal could reach 8 million tonnes by 2032, as soaring demand fails to be matched by new copper mines. The rate of supply increases required, is equivalent to building eight copper mines the size of Escondida, the largest in the world, per year, for the next eight years. That’s insane.

When you combine the expected deficits for these three metals with increasing industrial demand for copper and silver (due to the greening of the world economy) and higher investment demand for silver and gold, once the Federal Reserve realizes it can’t raise interest rates any more without breaking the Treasury, causing the US dollar to slide, the prices of gold, silver and copper are all but guaranteed to go up.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/positioning-in-metals-for-economic-recovery-richard-mills/

Trek

Gold, silver and copper all have supply challenges in common that suggest each has reached a peak level of mine production. For gold and silver, the mining industry is currently unable to mine enough to meet annual demand, without recycling.

As for copper, we are quickly approaching the lower limits of cut-off grades, meaning that we are almost at the point where reserves cannot be grown at all. In other words, peak copper.

The copper industry is in the grips of a structural supply deficit that, combined with inflationary cost pressures and resource nationalism in some of the world’s largest copper producers, is only expected to get worse.

Global shortages of the metal could reach 8 million tonnes by 2032, as soaring demand fails to be matched by new copper mines. The rate of supply increases required, is equivalent to building eight copper mines the size of Escondida, the largest in the world, per year, for the next eight years. That’s insane.

When you combine the expected deficits for these three metals with increasing industrial demand for copper and silver (due to the greening of the world economy) and higher investment demand for silver and gold, once the Federal Reserve realizes it can’t raise interest rates any more without breaking the Treasury, causing the US dollar to slide, the prices of gold, silver and copper are all but guaranteed to go up.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/positioning-in-metals-for-economic-recovery-richard-mills/

Trek

Hi Gav,

Thanks. I was amused that having filtered through all those mining companies I looked in here and saw you held! A nice reassurance!

That’s some conviction in your holdings.

I will be adding as funds become available.

Good luck,

Trek

From Brave AI…..

“ A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.2 It is estimated that these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2. It's not fully clear whether it's purely psychological or there are some underlying financial reasons for the year-end rally, but history has shown that stocks tend to gain at the end of the year and into the first days of January.0 UK investors have come to expect the FTSE 100 to achieve a good return in December, and from 1985 to 2015, the FTSE made an average gain of 2.26% in the last month of the year, rising in value 83% of the time.”

Trek

Gold, silver and copper all have supply challenges in common that suggest each has reached a peak level of mine production. For gold and silver, the mining industry is currently unable to mine enough to meet annual demand, without recycling.

As for copper, we are quickly approaching the lower limits of cut-off grades, meaning that we are almost at the point where reserves cannot be grown at all. In other words, peak copper.

The copper industry is in the grips of a structural supply deficit that, combined with inflationary cost pressures and resource nationalism in some of the world’s largest copper producers, is only expected to get worse.

Global shortages of the metal could reach 8 million tonnes by 2032, as soaring demand fails to be matched by new copper mines. The rate of supply increases required, is equivalent to building eight copper mines the size of Escondida, the largest in the world, per year, for the next eight years. That’s insane.

When you combine the expected deficits for these three metals with increasing industrial demand for copper and silver (due to the greening of the world economy) and higher investment demand for silver and gold, once the Federal Reserve realizes it can’t raise interest rates any more without breaking the Treasury, causing the US dollar to slide, the prices of gold, silver and copper are all but guaranteed to go up.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/positioning-in-metals-for-economic-recovery-richard-mills/

Trek

Hi Patryk,

Completely understand where you are coming from. However, one can interpret metrics in a variety of ways. Take 3 takeovers for example.

One could say that the fundamentals and discount and outlook is so strong that approaches were made but batted away by great defensive work by the SHG shareholders and investors!

And regarding a low ball, Eric will not be short of changed when he leaves so watch out for another bid!

Similarly I could pair numbers for EDV against PAF and tell ya what even though I don’t hold EDV, they would beat PAF on many financials!

But I haven’t bought EDV, not saying anything wrong with EDV ergo not saying anything wrong with SHG. It’s just my individual view based on my interpretation and investment ‘needs’.

Hopefully, I made that clear when I said

“… nor necessarily would the others be better or worse, PAF definitely scratched my itch!”

But I did say I do not see some ‘startups’ as investible. However, for transparency, I have traded many successfully, or rather a more accurate descriptor is… ‘luckily!!!’

What I do respect though is someone like yourself that has rationalised several positions and reached their own conclusions!

That is worth more than the hundreds of ‘£10 a next week’ posts that ones sees on these BB’s which would be fine if those posts came with some qualification!!

Still I note you only sold half of your SHG and are therefore ostensibly purporting if you should flip the rest? Or you would have sold 100%?

If it helps, like you, I hold both and would add to PAF over SHG atm.

However, I would be cognisant of fx on both. I would not sell my SHG to buy more PAF.

I respect some investors may have one or the other in which case one has to watch spread, currency, divi outlook etc and sticking with either position may be best as we don’t know the future!

If you are looking in and want an opinion on whether to buy SHG or PAF for an instant upside gold play….

I’d say buy EDV!…lol!

If you wanna trade, I’d say use FRES, I mean I am so lucky there already!!

If ya wanna tuck away small cap ‘safe’ gold plays with risk and upside potential I’d say 60/40 PAF/SHG.

But if you are a new buyer for a one and ‘mid risk’ play I’d say PAF.

No idea if that helps!

Usual caveats

Trek

Mick!

Clever IPad!

Hi Mike,

‘Beware the ZAR’ - absolutely!

Fx headwinds can erode gains in a blink!

Last divi was at 18:83 USD/ZAR

Fx has been rather stable last year but over 5years up 36%!!

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR&view=1Y

Usual caveats

Trek

Why copper is critical. Good infographics…

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/sponsors/copper-development-association-spotlight/?utm_source=VC-email&utm_medium=Regular&utm_id=vce-cda&utm_source=VC+Elements&utm_campaign=28d9149e66-VCE_Email_December_01_2023&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f3fdb4328c-28d9149e66-46691849

Trek

Why copper is critical. Good infographics…

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/sponsors/copper-development-association-spotlight/?utm_source=VC-email&utm_medium=Regular&utm_id=vce-cda&utm_source=VC+Elements&utm_campaign=28d9149e66-VCE_Email_December_01_2023&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f3fdb4328c-28d9149e66-46691849

Trek

PAF - Posted some research there. I see it as a good gold play.

Usual caveats

Trek

I invested in here 2/3 before the xd 1/3 after just to hedge my average. Will add more later.

I hold SHG a producer, pretty well known and PXC a growth play, polymetallic, US copper & gold about to finance a mine. But I wanted another producer who would benefit quickly by a higher price of gold due to balance sheet mechanics.

I didn’t really want West Africa even though that’s were some of the lowest AISC’s are due to the political situation. I am aware of PAF’s ‘shed’ in South Sudan which I don’t view as core.

Anyway for those who use ii, on the research tab you can filter out natural resources, gold and UK listed companies. It then offers one a financial matrix comparing across peers. I was then taken in by the data underpinning PAF. As always one can never get everything one is looking for but is sure hit enough buttons!

A stand out was the divi, and that as a small cap they had paid one for the last 5 years! Even though it’s just a final it represented a nice lump in December which was a bonus for my income needs.

Indeed valuation and financials came out strong and from my limited charting knowledge whilst momentum was not a strength that looked set to improve on a breakthrough of 18p resistance.

So buying around the divi offered an opportunity to get the divi and be below resistance which should become next support. The 15-16p gap going back to June was also filled during November. That gives one confidence that it should not be revisited. Indeed I have a 5 wave up fractal (an Elliot wave hybrid) taking us to 25p. So I will be backing that as cash becomes available.

All the other boxes, management, ops, growth/outlook LoM (impressive, 12.8Moz reserves) were ticked at least as not being red flags! Indeed so much more to come!

Whilst AISC of 1350 @fx (always a risk) isn’t stellar it’s pretty good. Llikewise under 19m debt and its good to see directors holding and adding. The impact of 190k Oz top end guidance will translate into good profits for PAF that have, yes, a behaviour of re-investing, paying debt and returning money to shareholders!

You really don’t need to chase the ‘wideboy lifestyle’ resource companies for the chance of ‘riches’. Far better to look for a steady eddy that is doing the basics right and has sound financial acumen and a transparent balance sheet!

I went through 8 others on my matrix and like I said whilst PAF didn’t offer all, nor necessarily would the others be better or worse PAF definitely scratched my itch!

I was also pleased to see safety improvements and the transformational ESG program high on the agenda as that quite rightly widens the investment appeal.

So sound financials, growth, producing gold at good profit a good management team and a chance of technical momentum from charts.

I’m in!

Usual caveats

Trek

8th Dec is Friday. Next week should be fun. Hot money will arrive. The MM’s will have a field day finding stock!

It’s amazing how late folk leave things but then I trade stocks around news and have a divi calendar that I use to buy the weeks before and sell some before and some after the xd.

It’s surprising how it adds up. But I only trade stocks I don’t mind holding.

Any trading here the recent resistance is 34p so buys below that should do well before news. Hence I think we will see some money arrive for the last few days and sell out in advance of Friday.

There will also be last minute buys for those that are happy to invest and sell into news or wait for news.

Lots of permutations!

But if that bond comes through then whatever one does I would highly recommend leaving a chunk in for the journey.

As said before 800p is not out of impossibility especially as we are only priced on a chance of success with 1% of the resources proven!

This really could be a moonshot! Even a small position here could supercharge one’s pf!

Usual caveats

Trek