Member Info for TrekMadone

200k sell in and some 50’s. Churning away!

Should get that letter by end of month at least!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Tiburn,

The market likes to see risks shared but the BoD have maintained the current stance.

Royalties/equity/JV are all forms of dilution. So is debt for that matter! Even bonds have to be financed.

It’s unavoidable. Just a case of which path eventually yields the best shareholder returns.

At the moment there are probably few here that are in the money. Especially those at +60p!

So it’s no point in taking years and then only getting back to the ATH. IF there was an earlier JV option which could have meant an earlier route to production.

As I have posted before the bond still has to be paid for and that’s being realistic but it is also very possible.

Should pxc land the finance, deliver the mine etc then indeed there could be no stopping this especially in an impending commo super cycle!

But unfortunately as with most of these stocks it’s the new money buying now that can get in with much less risk. Buying at the IPO or pretty much any share price since has been a waste of time unless one traded it successfully! Unlikely imo!

Nope new money is the likliest winner here. You get a sudden price rise or loss skipping all the wait time!

Timing is everything but even those trying to time it have ended up being misled there!

Just when one thinks one is getting the hang of this there’s more to learn!

Usual caveats

Trek

Trading statement due end of Jan should be good in terms of profit with HH hedge premium.

Then finales due end of March.

As mentioned M&A was top of Rusty’s mind on last interview.

Will we issue more shares to secure an acquisition? I doubt it. Will come out of debt imo.

Having reduced net borrowing by 12% could he be using that headroom for another takeover?

I think the Congress letter and HH prices (el Nino) may have shaken a few! Bargains out there!

If we secure more debt to recylce then that would be a pretty confident validation by the banks imo but no idea how market will react! Probably go up to catch us out!

Divi increase announced with finals in March. Then it will go back down again!

Bonkers here!

Usual caveats

Trek

I use ii am happy. Plus it’s £3.99 a trade so can trade regularly but 11.99pm for ISA & trading account flat. Good for regular traders.

This drop may be another short opening.

Usual caveats

Trek

Pretty obviuos short…. Boeing!

I expect many have!

Trek

The more the US buy the less stock on UK markets. The sooner the gap closes and the sooner they kiss goodbye to London!

Well that’s how I understand it. But that’s my view only.

Usual caveats

Trek

I just don’t understand why posters think it’s fine to ridicule fellow PI’s that have lost money. Don’t get me wrong I understand people having a bear case and that a rampy case can be just as bad!

I thought the idea of the BB was for PI’s to share ideas and a views with an aim of helping each other from a wider viewpoint. Whether that be data, trading knowledge or comments on news etc.

You’d think that given how loaded the markets are against us having some decorum and integrity would help!

It’s just another sad reflection of the world we live in and how BB’s are disintegrating into another social media abyss!

Perhaps I’ve lost the plot!

Trek

Congressional leaders reach $1.59 trillion deal on top line spending, pave the way for deal to fund the government

PUBLISHED SUN, JAN 7 20243:52 PM EST

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Trek

It still amazes me that it’s not insider dealing if you trade with knowledge of a placing. Even taking shorts out in advance!

They should be party to the same terms as investors not actually profit from them!

Our FSC and MAR are a complete waste of space!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ Helium One Global (HLOGF HE1.L 9KE.F) announced the result of its placing and subscription offer. £6.1 million was raised at a price of 0.25p per share, a tiny fraction of the share price when the need for funding first became known. It appears the only way funds could be raised was by the “forward selling” of shares into the market, with the short position being covered by new shares issued in the placing, resulting in huge profits for those involved in the financing and massive losses for the existing shareholders. Returns are now down to the outcome of the Itumbula drill. Per the company, it should be due to spud imminently.”

Trek

Us 10years above 4 and inflation outlook being recalibrated following stronger us non farm payrolls.

So the reasons the sp rose have retreated a tad. So the sp has pulled back.

These levers make Phnx ‘easy’ to trade as it behaves predictably.

This time the pull back won’t be as severe as the last and actually represents a buying opportunity,

Because the overall narrative is for rates to come down. Just a bit later and not as quickly!

Usual caveats

Trek

I think with US listing it’s to be expected. I mean it’s not meant to be easy bagging +20% yields

Usual caveats

Trek

Seems market has taken news well. Neutral is well!

Let’s get the nav creek and ATS results out next week!

Usual caveats

Trek

We don’t know the terms of the bond other than the linkage to Fed discount rate or copper price. But those rates may change at the last minute. Completely normal as US 10year is back above 4% and SOFR is also back up and the Fed discount rate may be higher for longer. That’s what’s spooked the markets today.

It is also normal for obvious reasons for the company to have to keep an amount of interest on account at all times as a condition of the bond. That can be 6 or 12 months. Again for obvious reasons so a number of months coupons (ours is bi-annual) are always paid should the company head for a default.

It may be that if there are conditions that the bond capital can only be used for mine capex then that could explain needing a significant amount of cash on reserve to at least cover the first coupon. Again though that’s the way others have dealt with debt before but we may be different.

The main thing is it’s non dilutive so you shouldn’t get warrants attached or death spiral ‘sub prime’ funding like COPL!

When/if the deal lands the key question really is how quickly can they generate revenues to pay debt.

If Riverfort steps in then the capital pxc has + the small amount of NSR royalties will need to finance Riverfort whilst the Riverfort capital or a % of it is on account to at least cover the first coupon. It’s not an insignificant amount as it would likely be at the higher interest rate for the first 6 months of the 80m so the bondholders get paid.

Once this is signed it will literally be on your marks get set go! coz they have to generate cash quickly!

That would explain the activity. Licences need to land and the long lead equipment delivered.

That’s why I think it would make complete sense to have a parallel equity raise for working capital or another royalty deal to bump the cash up!

Shares can always be bought back at a future date. But then a raise could also be done pretty quickly in the event of any delays.

There are lots of similar permutations to the above and we should soon find out!

Usual caveats

Trek

US 10years back over 4, market recalibrating rate cut expectations. Non pay jobs pm. Gotta hope for good numbers. Probably already in price here now though.

RNS saying you have post will help.

Usual caveats

Trek

Eurozone inflation higher at 2.9%

US non farms due today

Biggy is us 10year treasuries gone above 4.

Oil up gold down.

Uk retail footfall in Dec was a nightmare exacerbated by wet weather!

Market is recalibrating hopes of a rate cut!

Gotta hope for favourable jobs this pm else could be big dip imo!

Usual caveats

Trek

Gosh such a coincidence that they open a short just before the letter and close it when the sp starts to recover!

Usual caveats

Trek

The cash position is going to be tight for now. I over looked that they had to pay $240k to Mackay by 31st Dec 23.

“ In April 2021, the Group entered into an agreement with Mackay LLC to acquire 1% of the 2.5% net smelter royalty payable on mining leases on the Empire Mine in Idaho, USA. Total consideration payable to Mackay LLC is $800,000, of which $560,000 has been paid. Deferred consideration comprises one further payment of $240,000 due on 31 December 2023.

The $2,000,000 short-term loan facility is unsecured, carries an effective interest rate of 12% per annum, and is repayable on or before 22 November 2023, unless extended at the Company's option to 22 March 2024.”

Here is the binds detail. There is not restriction on using the cash to pay for the bond coupon or indeed to pay off Riverfort unless it’s changed since sept 23….

‘ In September 2023 the board approved the creation of a class of corporate copper bonds to a total authorised amount of $300 million, as a prelude to the anticipated closing of an initial tranche to raise up to $80 million (before expenses) for the development and construction of the Empire open pit mine, plus operational working capital. The bonds will pay a floating rate coupon subject to a minimum of 8.5% per annum and a maximum of 20%. The floating rate coupon will be calculated as to the higher of a copper price coupon linked to the copper price on the London Metal Exchange, or an interest rate coupon linked to the US Federal Discount Rate. The bonds will be secured on the Group's patented open pit mining claims, will be listed on The International Stock Exchange in the Channel Islands, and will have a ten-year life with bondholder option to request redemption at nominal value after six years and the Company's option to offer redemption at a 10% premium to nominal value after five years. M&G Trustee Company are acting as Security Trustee and Escrow Agent, and The Bank of New York Mellon ("BNYM") as Custodian and Transfer, Paying and Settlement Agent.”

I actually think they should introduce a partner to share the risk. That would be more favourable.

The bond investor has to deposit $80m in exchange for tradeable paper. Incredible that they have got this far but imo a partner with cash would have got this over the line by now accepting we have to share the spoils.

All said the game is still well and truly on and I note they now say ‘appropriate’ which is more appropriate than saying next week!

Usual caveats

Trek

In other news, as I think the macros story is also key. Between the lines still and outlet for more US LNG via contract fulfilments….. from Reuters, via email so no link.

“ Shell PLC has joined BP PLC in its battle against Venture Global LNG, accusing the U.S. producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) of denying it and other customers access to supplies while exporting more than $18 billion of the super-chilled fuel, as Curtis Williams reports here.

Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass export facility has been producing and selling LNG for more than 20 months while telling Shell, BP and others it cannot provide them with term-contract cargoes while the plant is undergoing a commissioning phase. The customers have complained that this lack of access has cost them billions of dollars in lost sales.”

Usual caveats

Trek

TT international have closed else they could be loosing money if the SP returns to the sp of 13th Dec 2023. So they took profits.

Adage have stuck, as theirs was opened back in March 23 when the SP was = to 1800p they will be still in the money so no hurry I guess.

Usual caveats

Trek