Member Info for TrekMadone

Absolutely thrilled that we have had some news and the SP has held!

Next news it may even go up!

Trek

EST - well done guys! I would have thought that would be a good JV for CAML rather than that Scottish start up they have backed. At least there’s a JORC pending!

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Trek

AVCT - haven’t followed em for a while now.

Ouch!

“ The Board carefully considered the difficult balance between further dilution and the Group's cash resources to deliver key value adding milestones from the upcoming AVA6000 efficacy studies. On this occasion the Board has decided to settle the quarterly repayment in shares but will continue to review this on a quarterly basis and, if it considers that conditions allow, the repayment will be settled in cash.

After settlement of the quarterly repayment, the principal remaining under the Convertible Bonds will be reduced by £2.55 million to £35.70 million.”

I mean talk about telegramming and opportunity to the shorters!

They only sliced 2.55m from the 38m debt and the sp tanks 8%. If they carry on with the dilution the SP will be negative!

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Trek

In in time. Once it holds the 11p close that could be the signal new money has been waiting for.

With so many investments going below the placing price folk are rightly cautious and look for momentum before buying. Not saying that that is now but it could well be soon.

Those of us invested now knew the risks of a dip below the placing price. But we also appreciate with so many shares tightly held, and logically the newsflow, any pullback should recover relatively quickly.

I think it hasn’t dipped because the 100k trades have been orchestrated in an orderly market where the general consensus is that the current mcap offers the chance of plenty of upside.

Imo this will do 1 or 2p in a single day soon. Then it will get noticed and folk will get their slide rules out!

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Trek

Open 1074, low 1076, high 1099, source google finance.

You must have had a bet on hickster. Obviously as surprised as I am!

Good luck

Trek

I held rqih years back. Can’t believe the sp now!

Pxc - they are waiting for the bonds to be signed off. The thing is they don’t have much cash left. Running on a Riverfort loan atm.

Riverfort will need paying and they don’t have any production to pay the first bond payment.

I cant see the financiers allowing them to pay the first bond payment with the bond money. It don’t work like that.

The best they get is to roll up the debt. But then Riverfort need paying.

If they can use the bond money for that all well and good but I suspect the bond investors will hand over cash for capex investment. To build the mine. Not to pay off one credit card with another.

Expect an equity raise even if they land the bonds imo. So sell the news! You can always buy back in after a likely rise.

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Trek

Good Monday so far.

My buys from last week and today in MNG, PHNX, SEPL, DEC and HEX all now in the money. Just PAF having a down day following POG pullback. Next Ops update should be good there though.

Read through the smallcap RNS’s this morning. The news at BSE, MTEC and APTA just show how undervalued some stocks are. Even at GSE where the market is still not convinced atm I think they will pop soon.

I only added to HEX though. Always prioritise funded with cash in the bank. Should be some bigger moves there soon. I have been tracking the volume and in the absence of TR1’s I am inclined to think that the MM’s have been taking on stock to sell back. Probably in parallel with a T20.

They bat both ways, so the opposite to the run down at HE1. With the pending newsflow and relatively few shares they can spike it up quite easily imo! Hence I have gone overweight with a view to slicing some along the way.

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Trek

PAY - I knew the market had it wrong!

My previous posts testify to that. They are about to instigate a buy back. For transparency I don’t hold for no other reason than I chased higher yield elsewhere.

Don’t be surprised is a bid for them isn’t forthcoming. Look at the share register!

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Trek

Hi Jethro,

“ Future additional funding is, of course, inevitable,‘

On that I think there are options.

Whilst some working capital may be needed ahead of sales, if HEX get lucky on the first drill which is likely given the shows and geo then I think the Bod will go down a completely different route to HE1.

If HEX can flow helium to the surface then given the relatively cheap infrastructure I would not be surprised to see a customer step in or even the DOE or both to achieve security of supply.

What are we talking, 10m for offtake or even split it between two customers and they get exclusivity. It’s a lot for us but not for the majors.

With Bo’s contacts expect the unexpected imo.

Anyway getting ahead of oneself.

Let’s finish the scoping and get a good rig deal, there’s plenty of rigs parked up!

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Trek

Article on delistings from London

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/22/sharp-rise-in-aim-delistings-casts-doubt-over-city-of-london-future?utm_term=66260b958490ae7cea52f9c5ced9723f&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

Watch GST, they have pumped their subsidiary revs. Prob pumping sp to fill coffers for another acquisition. Not a bad thing in itself. It’s just the how!

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Trek

Overweight in here now my last top up this morning.

Hoping to take some profits on the way up and leave my core position in for the journey.

Will follow the news timeline as opposed to charts because there are some obvious price pivots ahead.

13m mcap funded for 3 drills within a known helium geo in the US is way too cheap imo.

I really think Bo knows exactly what he is doing and with DM’s battle wounds you can already see from the restricted placement that they are in tune with investors.

I fully expect deals aplenty with these guys and maybe even a JV further on to spread the costs.

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Trek

‘ On Friday, RBC Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Phoenix Group Holdings PLC, a leading UK life insurance company. The firm increased the price target on the company's shares to GBP6.15, up from the previous target of GBP6.00, while reiterating an Outperform rating.

The revision came after Phoenix Group's stock exhibited a notable underperformance compared to its sector and the broader market. Year-to-date, the company's total share returns were down by 7%, while the UK life sector and the FTSE 100 index both saw gains of 11%. Despite this underperformance, RBC Capital noted that Phoenix Group now trades at a fiscal year 2025 dividend yield of 11.6%, which is not only near the lowest it has been in the past five years but also higher than the average yield of its peers, which stands at 9.6%.

The analyst from RBC Capital highlighted that the attractive dividend yield has led some investors to question the company's performance. Addressing these concerns, the analyst underscored Phoenix Group's positive attributes, including its improving cash generation, earnings, and leverage ratio. The firm emphasized that the company's dividend is sustainably covered, a fact that they believe is not currently reflected in the stock's valuation.

Phoenix Group's commitment to maintaining a solid dividend payout appears to be a key factor in RBC Capital's positive stance. The analyst's comments suggest confidence in the company's financial health and its capability to continue rewarding shareholders, despite the recent underperformance in its share price.’

https://au.investing.com/news/company-news/rbc-capital-raises-phoenix-group-stock-target-maintains-outperform-93CH-3209138

Australian link.

Trek

Ps thanks guys

Maxed at HEX now with last 50k buy this morning.

Just gotta switch off and wait now.

13m mcap fully funded for up to 3 drills, that means 2!

Top Bod and excellent helium proven geo in US.

Gone overweight to hopefully bank some on way up.

Gonna follow the news timeline on this one rather than charts. Lots of clearly defined price pivots.

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Trek

Well at least they are adding capex and expanding the facilities. All takes time though but we are much further along now.

Once that extra gas hookup is tested I think we could be near the £1 or hopefully closer to Malcy’s TP!

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Trek

And even if Europe had gunpowder we don’t follow our own rhetoric! Sleeping while Russia rearms.

https://www.politico.eu/article/without-eu-rearmament-nato-set-itself-failure-war-ukraine/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

Trek

“ While the billions of dollars in new aid is expected to sustain the Ukrainian war effort in the months ahead, if Republicans gain more power in Congress - or take back the White House - further US support seems increasingly unlikely.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68848277

Sounds like a fair warning that Europe really have to step up in time. Yea right! We will be asleep again when this lot runs out!

I also note tick tock has to be sold in us or face a ban. What about Europe, yep snoozing with all these apps that collect and offshore data!

I was plagued with 0848/0858 etc calls. Mostly ghost calls. Reported loads to regulator, waste of time! blocked the numbers but more were generated.

Then my 123 email account was withdraw as they were bought out and they just pulled the plug on the server! So I had to change my email address. What a nightmare! Everything from iplayer to bank etc and some you still had to keep the old one as an ID!

Anyways even though I have the same mobile number all the ghost calls stopped! Weird! One for nom!

Trek

Ok this is additional lateral thinking along the lines I posted before about the US onshoring lithium, ergo helium. And the DOE + Ford buying into Thacker Pass (a huge lithium project) to tune of +$2.4bn to secure US lithium supplies. (I posted the links earlier)

So here you can see another parallel, this time ‘gunpowder and the associated cotton’ that comes from China. Ergo helium!

https://www.politico.eu/article/saab-ceo-warns-against-reliance-china-make-weapons-europe/

It seems unbelievable that Europe ‘could end up asking for a truce’ coz a potential adversary, China, won’t supply weapons propellants to Europe during a hypothetical future conflict! Crazy eh….

Well actually due to the Ukrainian war there is now a queue as China is prioritising selling propellant to Russia whilst Europe waits!

So we cant pass on shells to Ukraine coz we don’t produce our own propellants at any scale so we now have to wait for deliveries from China which will occur after the Russians have their orders filled !!

Well that’s the gist of this fking madness!

But still it’s cheaper for us!

Also if production is in ‘honest’, green’ China and it’s not in our back yard then that makes it greener as well!

So now extend the narrative and you will see that is the reason why the US will secure their own domestic helium supplies.

Weapons, space, chips and medical! That seems a pretty good incentive!

The US are serious about independent security of supply. Not like the UK under any govt or Europe for that matter. We think it’s fine not to develop gas in the North Sea, a key transition fuel that enables a move away from coal.

Instead we greenwash our own narrative and then import gas from Qatar, US or even Russia at premium prices and higher footprint and worse still use coal power as a backstop!

This country is bonkers!

When will we realise that as an island we have independent, fisheries, farming, energy + green energy, financial services, infrastructure, water and even mining! Etc!

We need to follow the US onshoring model of supply security!

Oops,

Usual caveats,

Trek

Don’t get the obsession GG. Obviuosly you are rattled by my performance on DEC! Pssd on your chips there too many times! Lol!

The stop was set here after the buy when the SP had gone up. To cover my position. Pretty obvious really!

I have been fortunate trading this as it was a ‘forced trade’ brought about by the xd, broker downgrades, Fed hawkishness and the ME conflict. All at once!. An axiomatic trading opportunity when you rationalise it, so nothing clever really.

Some investors act on that data and others stick it out which is fine. I just happen to be an active investor..

At times of high volatility I do hold some and trade some like at DEC which has obviously upset you. I did well here when Liz Trust had her budget and I posted my views to hopefully help folk consider selling and buying back cheaper. Which I did throwing off loads of cash over those few days.

Occasionally you get a winner like this. Makes up for the duffers and PHNX has been good to me just like DEC and HE1 has of late.

Now I am back in here as of Friday for hopefully another leg up next week and I may add to my position if I have any change after adding to MNG and HEX.

I won’t be jumping in here though as sub 450 is as likely as 500p on the chart. So I will average in and may again sell some spikes and recycle to try and get a good base to hold from so as to maximise the yield ahead of September.

Whilst this has more yield (50/50) MNG is still a play (2/3 1/3 divi) as it should have more capitol (lol) gain.

But then for you it’s easy just bashing from the sidelines with all your hindsight and not making any advance calls. And you note how I call what I execute in advance!

And as I say I only trade a stock or trade and hold a stock that I intend to hold. That takes the pressure off!

Oh by the way you missed out trailing orders from below.

Hope they are paying you overtime for the weekend mate or is it just your troll infatuation!

Buy some HEX with your overtime!

Now kindly let’s leave this BB alone!

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Trek

I wouldn’t worry about a rig. Look at the NG prices and rig count. Down 134 on this time last year!

https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/

We should be able to get a good deal. Many will be idle or nothing scheduled and glad to have some work.

Usual caveats

Trek