The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Pompey,
Thank you.
There is no established pattern yet and an Elliot wave let alone a correction pattern emerging would be some time in the future, if at all.
That takes at least 3 waves up for TA even with sub waves within each bigger step. You can see examples on Tesla and Gold.
This may help
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp
I think an ‘ascending channel’ is probably the embryonic chart pattern atm that looks likeliest to play out at least for this year.
Remember what I said earlier. Read the admission document and copy your price points over based on peers and news. That way you will have a better idea of what to expect or as important what not expect with the SP glidepath.
Good luck.
Usual caveats
Trek
Here is the chart pattern that I think is emerging. An ascending channel. You can read the definitions and see the pick here.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingchannel.asp
From Brave AI…
“ An ascending channel chart is a powerful pattern that can help traders identify an upward trend and potential trading opportunities. By understanding the key features and trading strategies, traders can use this pattern to make informed decisions and potentially profit from the market.”
The key features, technicals aside, are obviously news driven. Then the technicals come into play.
So far we have climbed to the first step.
That’s up from 10p and established an upper resistance of 20.8 and a support of 14.57. The length of the step is the gap between the last event, likely Hereford flipping & the IPO being oversubscribed and the next event.
The next event is conclusion of the scoping study. Obviously an unknown event can change this up or down.
Here you can see the flat step and the channel.
https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HELIX-EXPLORATION-PLC-168244881/graphics/
So in the meantime the stock should sit between the two bands until the next news. It may break up in anticipation or down on a delay. Atm it’s peak and consolidated and is probably slipping a little based on PI boredom. Afterall it’s been two weeks!
Let’s assume all is on track. Well in that event the next step should be up and the height of the rise will be dependent on the content of the news. So what’s in the scoping study.
That step will then establish an upper and lower band. A channel will then appear between the two steps as in the first link opening up future predictions around the next step and beyond.
Albeit one always has to factor in reality with forecasting.
That reality comes from the news content, peer analysis, financials and of course the Bod and other market dynamics.
So one can atm assume there is no reason why we shouldn’t establish a higher step on the next news and then a higher one again thereafter say on rig mobilisation and then drilling etc.
So we should follow the pattern until we get kicked off either up or down.
Hopefully that is a little more helpful than a wet finger saying 16p or 27p by next week!
The SP will very likely move north but how high is as yet unknown. But at least in theory that means higher highs are ahead of us putting buys in profit and building the next resistance levels.
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi Clued,
No I don’t have him filtered. Would miss the laughs!
The more he deramps the higher the stock goes and I am one of the lucky ones here now up significantly esp with divi’s!
The only posters I have on filtered are a load of rampers from the AVCT BB and that’s going back to the covid rise there. They were still going on when I started selling down from over 200p after a crazy run!
Anyways great data on seeking Alpha. I agree it’s the pay down of the ABS notes that will really turbo the SP here with the low declines.
I am overweight so can’t really add more although would if it pulled back. I am getting +10% on one account and +9% in the other after withholding taxes and the Bod have virtually guaranteed that yield for two years.
Goodness knows what the SP and divi will be when the debt runs off and rates turn!
Expecting more than £15 but £15 is my near term expectation here.
Usual caveats
Trek
£15! lol!
It’s another good development but against the recent backdrop people of sceptical that it’s paving the way for cash.
No numbers, no sales team in place. Look at how hard ONC have to work in US and Europe to sell diagnostics! That’s with 5 full time reps!
At the end of the day it’s an app that has loads of potential but is still in development.
TB has a choice to raise cash and go it alone or bring someone in to finance it or buy it outright.
They are doing amazingly well on a shoestring but soon choices have to be made and investors will sit until there is clarity.
Shame cos it needn’t have been like that. I for one would have backed him had he an ounce of integrity!
Still in purgatory TB. Proactive await your call!
Usual caveats
Trek
‘ I forgot how literally you morons read things.’
Like your posts?
£15! lol!
Trek
Couldn’t resist!
Terry,
Brave - you are welcome. I have been using it for years now, no issues.
Thanks for posting the Alpha link.
Trek,
£15! Lol!
True Pete,
But unfortunately our balance of payments is negative. So we import more than we export.
Therefore a weaker pound imports inflation as it has reduced spending power
Trek
It’s as simple as if they weren’t expecting the transaction to come to fruition then why bother to extend it.
Getting paid handsomely whilst we wait!
Trek
Things are seldom as they seem. You have to look at where the stock is traded for at least a clue.
This is on SETSqx, it uses a hybrid of MM and auto trading. There are several auctions so it can change through the day between MM and electronic trading. It’s much more liquid than SEAQ (non electronic) but much less than SETS (electronically matched)
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/equities-trading/asset-classes/shares-trading/setsqx-and-seaq
You have to expect the volatility with these type of stocks and realise price is often disconnected from the trajectory of the business. Obviously one always wants to buy low sell high albeit pretty much impossible to time the best prices but it does help if you have a basic understanding of how the system works.
I think shareinvestment’s buy at 17:75 was very well timed. Indeed I would just be looking to add sub 20p ahead of news. That seems to be a minor resistance at the moment.
I would split over three trades and even then I doubt it would beat 17.75!
That looks a good shot to me!
Don’t think it will be in the teens in June and if it shoots up to 25p. Then what will happen. Probably buyers arrive! Crazy eh!
You can of course get an edge by reading through the company prospectus and putting price points on your own timeline.
https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Admission-document-final.pdf
If you think the stock is news driven then why not get ahead of the news. You can also look at peer mcaps and price points as well. All pretty much nuts and bolts investing.
It also stops you panicking when you buy at 20p and it goes to 17p and you sell. It then goes to 20p so you buy again! Coz you have a better grasp of the bigger picture!
Good luck!
Usual caveats
Trek
In the absence of news. If the MM needs stock they drop the price to encourage sells. If they want to offload stock they raise the price to encourage buys.
Retail investors tend to buy a rising share price and sell a falling share price and are often impetuous.
If there’s been news that’s different but these lull’s are the times when a stock can move disproportionately on low volumes to the advantage of ‘the house’ or those with a contrarian view.
That is based on my experience only.
It is also why I tend to trade some stock and hold some stock.
However, given the rapid timeline here and the chances of unexpected news I am happy to hold and follow the companies plan which has been well laid out and of course financed in advance.
It’s my opinion that these little windows present an opportunity for those that missed their entry price to average in.
And those that are in at a higher price to either average down or just hold and not worry as the companies timelines, which they signed up to when buying, are still on track.
Usual caveats
Trek
Referring to the RNS Roger sold some to cover taxes on the LTIP
Usual caveats
Trek
The bid has been same as the SP the couple times I looked today. That indicates the MM want stock so to encourage sellers.
It’s just flipped now with this small UT trade at 165p!
Probably trying to put folk off buying!
All indicates limited liquidity to me.
Selling is no problem but I don’t have any funds atm to get a dummy buy price.
Re. The director sell & news, I don’t think the options come into it. My read is Roger sold some to cover tax liabilities on a timebound transaction. They are out of a close period and one could argue that the divestment is no longer market sensitive as it’s been on the cusp for near 2 years!
Usual caveats
Trek
Get one well on line with an offtake agreement/ JV and daisy chain the rest = large scale pdq! That will offset the capex significantly which is already much lower in US than ROW. Getting drills, equipment and crew is much more straightforward. Also lots of land is already marked for expo licensing.
Could get v interesting next year as well!
Usual caveats
Trek
Sold some to cover Nigerian taxes on ones held
Usual caveats
Trek
Been on my watchlist for a while. Never bought, put off by charges 1.88%. But sp performance has made up for it!
Check out LLAP as well. Just done deal with Lockheed Martin. Coming off bottom. US sat builder.
Usual caveats
Trek
I think at this level 31.5p price seems to have settled. Bottom feeders and traders likely circle from here and give us a little lift. 35p easy money imo if there is such a thing as easy!
News of two wells on and we should go back to 40’s. Hopefully claw our way back from there!
Usual caveats
Trek
Thankfully we have GLG shorting this…useless! Look at KNOS and KWS today where they also increased. lol!
Trek
Read between the lines. The scoping study will be more than just infrastructure costs. It’ll price tag HEX for window shoppers.
Look at DME up 65% in 5 days coz the market likes deals. How is this for a finance option from Beam Earth..!
“ Under the terms of the new agreement, Beam Earth Ltd. will finance the following:
A payment of $225,000 USD to DME within 90 days from the signing date.
Covering all geophysical and associated drilling costs, including the completion of pilot wells.
Engineering for a combined "white" hydrogen/helium plant, leveraging DME's hydrogen separation unit currently located at the McCauley Field in Arizona.
The planning for a "green" hydrogen plant in Arizona.
The planning and engineering for ammonia and loading facilities in New Mexico and Arizona, as applicable.
Conducting geophysical work in Chaves County, New Mexico, focused on "white" hydrogen.
The planning and engineering work for "blue" hydrogen processing/reformation and power generation plants in New Mexico.”
https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DESERT-MOUNTAIN-ENERGY-CO-49478169/news/DESERT-MOUNTAIN-ENERGY-ANNOUNCES-STRATEGIC-PARTNERSHIP-WITH-BEAM-EARTH-LTD-FOR-HYDROGEN-IN-ARIZONA-46747703/
That’s an example of what the market is prepared to pay to get production of these gases. So folk think big raise on a find ain’t listening to the Bod. I really don’t necessarily see much dilution of shares here. Dilution of assets yes. But the market prepares funding and shared risks to endless placings. That’s the page Bo and battle scared DM are on!
Usual caveats
Trek
“ Upon new drug application ("NDA") approval by the FDA, a sponsor becomes eligible for a PRV.”
Still not through phase 1. So long long way to go. Will need lots of cash/deals/JV but TB has made it clear he doesn’t want to share!
Usual caveats
Trek