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The biggest cause of the rise in homeless, enormous rise in food banks is universal credit as far as I can tell. Therefore if it is binned which JC says he will do then yes things will improve for the most vulnerable. The two trillion of national debt of which about 1.5 billions worth was borrowed by the Torys is a massive barrier though and the huge budget deficit that we still have despite George Osbourne stating it would be gone by 2015........is also a big problem.
Thre is a presentation on 12 th November, see the links on this BB. Mike Buck said that at end of year they will have 3 million and this is enough to get heron 1 on stream mid next year. So as long as they get exploitation licence income should begin. My take was that 300 Or 350 bopd covers there costs for 1 year and Heron 1 May archive that. Then with the extra small bit of funding they hope to get heron 2,3 and 4 producing. This extra income the funds the extra wells.My bet is a Petrochina farm in to achieve the extra funding
I would suggest that if people haven't yet, they watch/listen to the Mike Buck presentation on 12 th November to garner your own opinions. He said that if Petrochina was developing Heron they would probably put 60 wells on it. They have already offered to drill for PM but that was before the discovery so they are now discussing this properly. For me a very interesting bit was they need around 3.5 million dollars per year to run the business and by year end they will have around 3 million. This is enough to get Heron 1 on stream and producing. As peterlee said they are already permitting and MB suggest to the government that he would like the license by year end but would be happy to get it in Q1. The bit about funding he says that they are talking to Petrochina about drilling the wells as thy are probably the cheapest but also about them taking a farm in stake in Heron. Also mentioned the banks and also that a logistics company would like to take the oil to Russia if a long term contract was signed and they would pay some money up front but no suggestion of how much. Anyway it all helps. The plan is to get heron properly going using 10 to 15 million dollars to get heron 2,3 and 4 on stream. So my take is that if the is any dilution it will be a small part of the 10 to 15 million dollars needed if at all. Also spoke about the western blocks and trying to attract one of the big boys. Not sure where the bottom is or whether it has been hit but just seems like the 100 percent or so rise has been chewed on by traders that always take a big bit back after such a big quick rise so bottom formed for me. All the tosh about no news for winter is a larf......
Much - I'm sure your correct but I thought the big obstacle was PMO debt under 2 billion before the shackles are released by the banks. I' m more confident as we near that figure that the Zama sale and also oil being about I think it was 50 and those days are currently behind us. Cheers.
I think at rhodium says they cleared the convertibles in exchange for bonds yielding I think 7.5 percent. Also need to factor in that although Amer production lower we also have the wells and seismic that OXY owe us. Potentially quite a bit of bopd from that and also income from OBA so out the 2 Amer all the way as no debt. Although around a quid is good buy but would like to see debt lower which is there stated plan for 2020.
Mike. Your almost certainly correct with what you say. Perhaps when FID happens and with it the PMO farm out which I guess will need to be around 35 percent which will include 10 percent of RKH's 40 percent remaining stake. The new partner will want to get on with and there with it to drill through Rhea. Also, what a shame this board has become a shambles due to the neutralisers all appearing lately to add to the originals. Always worth a read and respect to the stamina of Nigoil/Mogger etc. Cheers. Oh last thought from me, the narrative currently Sea Lion which I think will very quickly move to Isobel which will be another driver for Sea Lion funds. Just my thoughts, have small holdings in FI shares to reflect the risk pro
Guesses for tomorrow....18 months extra to licence.
As always, great posts BBN and picked peck. Do you think there is a chance that OXY are currently not part of the process so in 2 weeks or whenever we get the offer if there is one, at a premium to the m & p. So let's say that is 25p. Then OXY come in and offer more as they are not part of the current process. Therefore any company not part of the process can still come in and offer more. Or am I way off the mark. From how I eat this the participants within the process are somewhat at a disadvantage ? I think there is an opinion that the likes of OXY, Geo, GTE etc are all already on board but maybe they are not yet and just waiting for this bit to play out. And it's for that reason in the RNS it said something like don't sell until the process complete or something and that was the give away.
Would tend to think that likely willec. Also like to add that the Amer BB whilst providing different views has a handful of quality posters of which for me both colonel drake and jointhedots are in that handful and appreciate the time they put in to compose their posts.
BBN - Always enjoy reading your posts. You appear to feel that the whole company would be sold. If a situation arose where Amer were offered a good deal for cpo 5 and for the blocks farmed out in other words not the whole business and the value of the bits to be sold was more than the market cap then would the shares need to be suspended. I seem to remember something like that happened to PMO prior to suspension at around 19p. Also, re the sp, it seems like the price is being held to create an average, is it VWAP or something so over month or so the average is 17p and any whole business bid would be VWAP plus whatever percentage above that.
Hi Phil. I have a few here and Argos. The Argos licence expires in November from at i see. If Argos can't get an extension I'm sure got a chance that a bigger player comes which could then makes things interesting here. If that happens makes sea lion FID more likely I fancy.
Margaret, I think the guidance of 5-6000 was based on no exploration success. Now that indico 2 or 3 have yet to be drilled the actual year end figure will be greater than 6000 as we have not got to throttle back on indico 1 as they did with Calao. I'm starting to think we would be better off not selling cpo-5 and keeping plat and the OBA and get best price for the rest. At least we will have a relatively good production and growth plus all the revenue from the OBA. Oh, and keep put 8....
Hi Bays, last week I suggested something similar. OXY take the remaining 50 percent of the initial 4 blocks from us and we use the funds plus change to take another 20 percent of cpo5 and become operator. We would still have OBA and plat with 50 percent of put8 plus the other blocks. The OBA would still develop significant income for Amer and our production would take a quick hike up.
Rhodi
I think the idea is GTE make an offer for AMER at somewhere around the stifle valuation of 37 p a share which gets us around 400 million so 1 for 1 share offer. I'd be happy with that for future upside.....
JTD
This is a wild one. If OXY want the initial 4 blocks that Amer farmed out but we keep plat and OBA for the cash flow. Get drilling on PUT 8 when we can. Then with the money we get from the sales make an offer to ONGC for an extra slice of CPO-5 and become operator. And then the fact Indy 2 not drilled keeps the price down. The Indian government then get the cash out that they want.....wild but do you think at all poss. Cheers and always great summary/thought posts from yourself.