Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for the link AquaeSulis,
Let’s hope we all get rich together!
I completely understand why most of the current discussion concerns Axisbiotix and the pending consumer trial results.
But for me what’s happening with Skinbiotix and Croda/Sederma is even more compelling.
No company would surely produce 20,000 litres of an ingredient without complete confidence in its efficacy.
This being the case, progression to commercial launch with initially the ten to twelve premium customers much surely be a given unless I’m missing something.
Just imagine how many millions of products 20,000 litres of an ingredient will produce!
This is what makes me truly excited about the short term prospects here.
Long term, well anything is possible.
Slightly off topic but did anyone else listen to the proactive interview with SA this week? He mentioned that scale-up of Skinbiotix to 20,000 litres is already underway. This is also great news as it means the scale-up to 600 litres must have been successful. Presumably 20,000 litres is a production batch and will need to be blended into final formulations reasonably soon after. I’m not familiar with how long active ingredients like this can be stored but I’m assuming product launches of the skincare cosmetic lines may not be too far off either. May could be a great month. GLA
I think the answer here probably lies with production scale-up rather than physical logistics.
Remember, in the half year RNS it was described how production scale-up for Skinbiotix is to go from 2 litres to 20 litres to 600 litres and finally to 20,000 litres in preparation for commercial launch.
So it is highly likely that Axisbiotix will need to follow a similar scale-up process.
We also need to remember that the volume required for the consumer trial of 250 people was probably very small indeed so a large scale-up will be needed from where we are now. Just me guessing really but I have to say what a fantastic problem to have if it all turns out well!
If this reaches 300p I’ll be dancing down the street !
PrudentFox, gut health is certainly an emerging subject. To prove the point, I was placing an on-line grocery order earlier and was offered a new cereal branded “Gut Health” no less which I chose over my usual granola. Any evidence of increasing awareness I’m always delighted to see as I’m heavily invested here.
Clearly all investing requires the luck of the gods to some extent so good luck to everyone.
No need to apologise Basscadet. It’s one of my faults that I tend to delve into the detail !!! Good luck to all of us.
The precise wording used in the Chairman’s and Chief Executive’s Statement in the RNS was “Whilst too early in the study to draw any conclusions, the data thus far has been extremely encouraging.” I’m encouraged by this but keeping my feet firmly on the ground.
When I read the RNS today one number in particular struck me.
This was included in the sentence describing scale up of the Skinbiotix ingredient to the required 20,000 litres. 20,000 litres!
I’m just trying to imagine how many pots of skin cream this would produce bearing in mind as an ingredient Skinbiotix will surely constitute a small percentage of the product’s volume. Mind boggling.
I have been an investor in Opti for a few years. Having read their last trading RNS it seemed to me that more and more emphasis seemed to be placed on the future performance of SBTX.
It dawned on me (I’m a slow learner) that perhaps I was invested in the wrong company!
I have retained some investment there but the bulk of my investment has now come here.
Let’s hope I’ve got it right.
Here’s wishing everyone here all the good luck in the world! Including myself ??
And thanks to elrico and belgrano et al for providing such great insight. It’s appreciated.
Thanks for your comments.
I also seem to remember that elrico was planning to have fairly regular podcasts with SOH which I always found provided insight not really available elsewhere, therefore quite useful. But even these seem to have stopped. All quite strange!
Skid, Belgrano, Acqua, I’m interested to know why Opti has changed from a company announcing new deals frequently to one that now announces nothing apart from BOD appointments.
Is is possibly because;
1. There’s nothing to announce
2. New commercial agreements are no longer seen as material to the company’s trading results and therefore there’s no obligation to report.
3. A decision has been made to concentrate management effort on larger opportunities, e.g. the Nasdaq listing and Sweetbiotix deals which necessarily take longer to complete
4. AOB requiring what seems to be a news blackout!
Any thoughts?
Using the available information from previous company reports and updates I think we need full year revenues in the range of £3.2m to £3.4m to confidently break even taking into account all corporate costs.
Less than this they may claim individual divisions are profitable but that’s not the same thing and for me this would be disappointing even though it may still signal significant progress. I’m hoping for a good update maybe this week.
deafening.
Being invested here for a few years I used to love the regular commercial updates. True, they never did much for the share price but they made me feel part of the company and part of the journey.
Now I think I’m invested in an opaque box with no idea what’s going on inside.
No commercial update for the best part of seven and a half months! We sure are a patient lot!
The recently added staff and non-execs didn’t start their roles until 2021 so these costs will not be included in the trading update for the FY20.
The trading update for the half year results was issued in an RNS on 20th July, i.e. twenty days after the period end.
We are now waiting for the full year results. This trading update will not include audited figures, these will come later in the year around May, so I see no reason why the trading update for the full year cannot be released to the same timescale as the half year results. So in short, any time now.
For my part I do believe SOH has a plan for Opti and I trust that these recent appointments have a specific role to play in that plan.
Unfortunately, however, I am not overwhelmed by this particular appointment announced today. I wish I could say otherwise as I’m heavily invested here and like everyone else I’m waiting for the TU.
Continuing with Aquae’s comments regarding Sweetbiotix, take a look at the Opti website, in the Corporate section.
I hadn’t looked at it for a while.
Biographies are provided for all the board members. In the biography for Dr. Kolida, our R&D Director, it clearly states her work has led to two agreements with global corporates for Sweetbiotix, one a global leader in dairy products and the other a global leader in nutritional products.
It is these agreements I’m waiting for to turn into commercial traction.
If they do, and I have to say ‘if’ because I have my feet on the ground, then this would transform Opti overnight.
We can only hope and keep everything crossed.
Thanks for comments everyone.
If only Opti’s future revenues were as transparent as Sbtx’s seem to be.
It seems to be taking an age for Sweetbiotix to materialise but as this involves long development lead times for re-formulations involving product stability testing, packaging testing and all the other compliance requirements I suppose I shouldn’t be too surprised.
At today’s prices Opti is valued at £55m and Sbtx at £61m.
If we subtract from Opti’s valuation its 24.5% holding in Sbtx valued at £15m, the market is valuing Opti’s operations at £40m.
So Sbtx at £61m vs. Opti at £40m.
I would be really interested to know everyone’s thoughts as to whether this is a fair estimate of the relative future potential of each company. Thanks