Member Info for Toyin

Ox, Dermatonics and BTS were acquired on the proviso they would be accretive, initial forecasts from Cenkos where group revenues of £5.3 (£6.3m pro forma) later downgraded to £5.1m by Singers which actually turned out to be £4.5-£4.8m.

Put it this way, if it was wishful thinking and they raised on that basis, I would suggest that is tantamount to fraud.

shy, all good points, I honestly have no clue. What I do know is, if July was a strong month, on top of FY25 orders circa £500k, plus 200 new accounts, we should have had an upgrade.

Shy, when I saw this I dismissed it and then it got me thinking. How did they miss FY revenue by so much? Also, if these 200 new accounts had contributed anything wouldn't we have had upgraded guidance from the co, plus upgraded broker note?

The comms out of this co just baffle me.

Net, opti is a forced seller, I dont think its that he doesnt see the value, he needs the cash to prop up his own business.

If it was OPTI they would have issued a TR1, they haven't. IMO the share price has been held back so MD can fill his boots.

Small point, hopefully one day between them they can learn to fill out a TR1 correctly!

Aquae, make that six years!

MediBiotix

This channel is targeted as the use of technology for medical device applications and currently the Company is focussing on the application of its existing SkinBiotix technology for the indication eczema.

In recent months the Company has conducted further lab work to demonstrate the physical mode of action and is currently reviewing this data with its regulatory adviser before seeking to engage with the regulatory notified body on the matter. Additionally, the Company is in discussions with a number of global advanced woundcare companies to further explore the potential for the use of probiotic lysates in the treatment of various categories of wounds.

bazza, legally he cant, plus the auditors would be in the poop.

allegedly, we have been receiving royalties since 2024, just think about that as r55 alludes too. all this secrecy because it's a revolutionary product, that is a "swiss army knife” that has "created its own category” that is so off the charts amazing, its covered by an nda thats tighter than a ducks ar5e, does that sound material to you?

as shy points out, why did we need £4m? more questions by the day. if we dont get clarity in the fy results there will be fireworks.

you can only buy your head in the sand for so long, sooner or later you will get kicked in the ******!

Bazza, they will have to paint a clear picture at YE, its audited results. If not, my contact at FRC will be getting an email, the BOD know I will, because they know I already have.

Hi Bazzaman, yes that is certainly a possibility.

Jansy, 100% agree. Unless we get clarification on Croda the next IMC will be a train wreck. If you remember the Superdrug launch IMC, most of the questions were about Croda.

net, dustbin was a pump and dump merchant, nothing more. Who knows if he actually owned any shares, probably just a Walter Mitty.

Ox, one for you.

https://www.irishracing.com/galway-races/raceresults/Sat-25th-Sep-1999/Worcester/1445

It didn’t go unnoticed.😁

I never said he would.

Last years TU was more detailed and the BOD weren't under as much pressure, plus surely if you disclose you have paid it would it not be an idea to disclose if you haven't paid it?

Hi ox

Yes, he certainly did have a great return on Filtronics. He obviously has good luck!

Aquae.

In the TU we ended up with £700k more cash than expected, why, where did it come from? £700k after SD Capex is material, was the def con paid in April? If not, should that not be relayed to the market? Everyone assumes that it wasn’t paid in April because of poor FY revenue. If it was due to be paid in April, let's not forget SA told Elric Jan & Feb where exceptional.

"To meet the full-year revenue forecast of £5.3 million, SkinBioTherapeutics must generate £3.72 million in H2. According to Ashman, revenues for January and February—the first two months of H2—totalled £1.7 million. That equates to an average monthly revenue of £850,000. If that pace were sustained across all six months of H2, full second-half revenues would hit £5.1 million—well in excess of what’s required to meet guidance."

So was it paid? Did Andrell get a farewell present from his customers to chuck a load of orders in Jan/Feb so he got his def con?

Ox, the problem is there are a lot of products with the same ingredients as Zenakine, it's impossible to know. I certainly wouldn't be betting £4m on it being on the shelves.

Aquae, anyone can buy revenues, now I appreciate some are better than others at acquisitions and taking into consideration the way it was funded, the dilution and the net results, its not exactly awe inspiring. Regarding the Croda revenues, I agree, I believe they are substantial. I sent you a message this morning, if you didn’t receive it would you be kind enough to go to Substack and give me your thoughts on my post re def con.

Cheers

Bazza, your points hold water, but I dont have a problem with failed ambitions, you cant hit a target you dont have. My problem is, when you have a goal or a target and you miss it, or it doesnt turn out how you'd planned, own it, have a pair of balls, come out and communicate, it's not turned out as we hoped but we know the problems and we will sort them. For me, the worst statement ever made by the BOD was the following:

"Management expects to report unaudited revenues of between c.£4.5m-£4.8m1 (FY24: £1.2m), driven by a full year's trading by Dermatonics, eight months trading by Bio-Tech Solutions (BTS), as well as ongoing growth of organic sales of AxisBiotix. Revenues were slightly lower than market expectations due to timing of orders for Dermatonics and BTS, much of which occurred just after the year end.”

Revenues weren't “slightly” lower that was a monumental miss on an already downgraded forecast. There is only one thing worse than weak management, thats weak management that believes its strong, thats a very dangerous combination and it rarely ends well. Anyone with a braincell can see things haven’t gone to plan, there is no point going to ground and hoping it will blow over. I will back any management that comes out fighting and owns its mistakes, failure is an event, it's not a person. You cannot rectify a problem if you dont own the problem.

yes aquae, it's a bit slapdash to say the least. regarding the "exceptionally strong start" as you say this strong start was due to orders missing h2 25, so basically robbing peter to pay paul.

"post year end, july was a strong month with significant orders and good trading across the board, especially for the bts business.”

if it was a “strong month” (explicitly not including h2 25 orders), i think we would have been told, we haven't. on past bull****tery, along with this frs102 change, i have to conclude there is an attempt to pull the wool. i have lost all faith in the management, as we know comms has always been an issue, unfortunately it has got worse.

Aquae, no, simply because we know we received our first cash payment in Dec 24, so worst case we would have received another cash payment in March & June. Plus there would also be accrued payments for IP usage which we hadn't received cash for by the end of June.

Some of my notes below, my thoughts on revs.

29/3 Lemming H1 article stating.

To meet the full-year revenue forecast of £5.3 million. SkinBioTherapeutics must generate £3.72 million in H2. According to Ashman, revenues for January and February—the first two months of H2—totalled £1.7 million. That equates to an average monthly revenue of £850,000. If that pace were sustained across all six months of H2, full second-half revenues would hit £5.1 million—well in excess of what’s required to meet guidance.

There is a caveat regarding Dermatonics. Ashman explains that its busy period typically spans from March to May, making January and February seem out of sync with the usual cycle.

End

24/4 Manprit CFO leaves, Simon COO Joins.

16/6 Placing.

7/7 Downgraded broker note from £5.3m to £5.1m.

14/10 Simon COO leaves

HY revs of £1.58, FY revs of £4.5-£4.8m, we dont know if def con was paid, what we got from Croda or what we spent on SD to confirm how the YE cash position was achieved. Regarding revenues, for my calcs I will knock £500k for Croda, that leaves us with £4.0m-£4.3m from the rest of the business, I will go with £4.3m for this exercise. I also know that Axis has been growing slowly but steadily.

H1(1.58m) + First two months of H2 (£1.7m) = £3.28m.

So for the last four months of the FY (Derma's busy period typically spans from March to May) Derma/BTS must have only done a combined total of less than £1m.

I dont understand how there could have been such a catastrophic drop off in revenues in the last four months, as the BOD knew Jan/Feb contributed £1.7m that means they know on a month by month basis what revenue is achieved. I dont believe that Derma/BTS is that lumpy a business and would Greg Andrell sign up to such a def con agreement if he knew his business was so lumpy?