Member Info for Toukankahmoon

“We are all hoping for a buyout “

I for one certainly am not hoping for a buyout not until the SP is at least 10x what it is now.

The best outcome is that early P1b results are good enough to secure a lucrative licensing deal and then with that out the way Avacta can concentrate on progressing AVA6103 etc. I’ve said thi all along.

Good old Douglas Bader. I flew from RAF White Waltham over the same period as him in the late 60s. He’d retired by then but was in the civvy flying club there. Great character but talked over everybody on the radio. 😄

I think that Avacta will be more focused on market capitalisation than SP. I expect there to be a couple of significant share dilution events before and if the SP gets above £10

Cold water

Good to hear another rational view on here. Welcome to the mad house

Can’t be as bad as EML in Morocco😮

Icecool

Finally you’ve actually read and understood what I’m trying to tell you.

Of course there’s no rebuttal. What would I base it on? At the moment your calculations are likely to be as good as anyone’s.

But what does it matter other than amusing you while we wait.

What does it matter anyway? The margin for error in these calculations is huge.

It is hilarious that IceCool, who has no relevant experience with such things, sets so much store in the AI he is using. Language model AIs suffer the same weakness as the old information systems: garbage in, garbage out. And Icecool’s abuse of AI to somehow legitimise his analysis is just the sort of thing that world leaders are concerned about.

Let’s assume that Icecool’s estimates are correct. They could be for all I know or care. What can we do with them other than moan about the low SP and exalt in the fact that Icecool is so much more experienced and better informed than AIM, IIs, BP and the FDA.

I’m happy to wait until P1b results start emerging, at which point we will be in a much better position to take a view on Avacta’s future.

Yuyus

You really should have known, because all Timster ever does is Mickey take and stir the sh t

ChatGPT is a language model based AI it purely analyses texts from various sources and tries to reach a consensus. It is not a learning model or neural network as used in commerce.

Learning models need to be trained on vast amounts of data not something readily available when considering the possible outcomes of Avacta. Other learning neural networks function by changing inputs to a system and monitoring outcomes. In doing this the AI is able to analyse the impact of various changes to inputs and therefore work out inputs for different circumstances to achieve optimum outcomes:/results. Your modern car’s automatic gearbox is a good example of this. Obviously this cannot be carried out with Avacta.

P.S. I have been trained in AI development and built and trained commercial systems. Obviously the above is a very simplified view.

Icecool

“@Touk Not my words! That’s impartial AI tearing your posts apart and exposing the nonsense for what it is. Nothing personal, just facts.”

What have I posted that AI has torn apart. ?

Icecool

I haven’t made any comment about AIM and market sentiment.

“But you cannot argue that the current SP is not sentiment driven. If it isn’t sentiment driven then what is driving it? ”. Is what I said. Avacta SP is totally driven by sentiment at the moment.

And as to AI being impartial, that is rubbish. It is easy to get ChatGPT to give you the answer you want purely by the way you phrase the question.

Also you forget my post giving my AI (or expert systems as it was called) credentials dating back to the 1980s when my team developed and sold two custom built neural networks.

What does your CV look like. Where has your experience come from that makes you more clever than AIM, institutional investors, big pharma, FDA etc??

Where did you do your first degree and second degree? What relevant professional qualifications have you got. Which financial or biotech organisations have you worked for?

Anyway, how do I get it through to you that I am not arguing with you over your complex computations. I think the only thing I disagree with you over now (since we agree that licensing AVA6000 is how imminent is a substantial SP rise.

Icecool

FFS what is wrong with you I’m really worried now mate.

I am not arguing with you or your need to work out what Avacta should be worth. I cannot neither am I interested in these calculations trying to prove the SP is too low. You may well be right. In fact I hope you are.

But you cannot argue that the current SP is not sentiment driven. If it isn’t sentiment driven then what is driving it? Until P1b results start to be published we PIs are all in the dark.

Meanwhile I shall wait patiently like most on this board instead of feeling the need to second guess.

Watching

I agree

Hurst

Have you any view on timing and price for a NASDAQ dual listing What do you consider would be the total number of shares on offer?

Just asking

For a friend

Icecool

Sorry I missed your last point:

“If you’ve got a data driven reason why AVA6103 isn’t worth multiples of £175M based on industry precedent (Gold standard practice in biotech), I’m all ears. Oh wait, you don’t. ”

You are right I haven’t a clue what Avacta will be worth. Nor any idea how to do NPV on future sales profits. Neither do I want or need to. I can’t affect it and time will tell. In the meantime the SP is largely driven by sentiment and that is very dangerous.

Roll on P1b so we can end this continual bickering and vile personal attacks.

Buen

But nonetheless true. You must have other shares in your portfolio that have done better than Avacta over the past 5 years unless you are a trader and have been topslicing all the time and timed your trades very well.

Icecool

Perhaps “guesses “ was a bit harsh but there are two issues with your logic. The current SP and that none of us have a clue what the clinical trials will bring. We all hope that they will be stunning but the point of clinical trials is unequivocal proof in significant numbers.

We will know later this year. I cannot dispute your valuations and neither would I want to. I just don’t get the point of them.

You seem to think I enjoy arguing. I don’t. But this BB has to try to present a balanced view. By that I don’t mean each poster has to have a balanced point of view.

Buen

Sorry, that was sarcasm

I’ve been consistent in saying CC won’t sell and also that a takeover, especially right now, would be a disaster for shareholders. I’ve also been consistent in saying I believe and want AVA6000 to be licensed but not before decent P1b results push the value up.

And in any case I was originally replying to Hurst when you jumped in to have a go at me.

What is your problem? When have I upset you?

Icecool

What exactly is it that you are trying to achieve with these lengthy posts on all the good things that are going to happen and elaborate calculations of what the market cap (and therefore SP) should be?

1. A wind up -as you once posted

2. Comforting yourself that your investment is safe

3. An ego trip

4. An attempt to raise the SP

5. Something else

Has it dawned on you that if you stopped posting these guesses that the more cautious of us on here wouldn’t feel the need to balance things by posting a more cautious view of the immediate future?

No doubt all will become clearer later this year.

Bella

And while we wait there are lost investment opportunities that could be increasing our overall investments