Member Info for TorquayFan

Thanks Bermuda - interesting possibilities for 'Glycans' and for all 4 of Scancell's platforms . . . . I wonder which of the four will cross the line first, the 'line' being some new commercial action ?

Thanks Johnny. That's good. Noting that Sath is the second of our 2 Executive Directors, he's obviously doing well at Scancell. I wonder what he's up to apart from the routine work ?

Hi Ruck - yes I missed it too despite a few looks. Morning Violin.

Ruck - just noticed a correction - 43 (patients) not 43% !

. . . on PoG, Ruck has been doing some sterling work tying down the baseline facts so far, from the SCOPE trial :-

Ruck 8322 - "So we can all agree on this statement : "Currently the ORR in melanoma using standard of care checkpoint inhibitors is 50%. Scancell are hoping to achieve in excess of a 70% ORR in their SCOPE trial using SCIB1. Initial results from 11 patients has achieved an ORR of 82% (9 out of 11).

Scancell are 90% confident that the 70% target will be reached in the expanded cohort of 43% Yes?"

Inanaco 8323 - "Yes . . . . " - (and confirmed in further chat - hopefully).

Helpful for newbies and lowtechs - much lively discussion over there and warming to see some agreement.

Lively disaffection here and thanks to EE, Ray, Keiny and Stakis for some balance.

Cleaner - https://www.biotechtv.com/ - yes me too ! Awaiting with great interest the Brad Loncar interview with CEO . . .

"She'll be coming 'round the mountain, when she comes" ATB

Nope ! Have a look at PoG if you are bored. ATB

Yes Cleaner thanks for that. I'm not checking now but I thought that segment at ASCO included BioNTech, Moderna and Scancell. Therefore, so nice to see that special mention. ATB

Yes Ruck and good for them ! What a fine result Burnley had, walloping Sheffield United the other day. Come on Burnley !

WTP - I think that Sath was a 'Panel member' rather than 'Presenting'. But hopefully he had some useful interactions anyway!

It feels like 'all hands on deck' and the 'quiet' is a bit strange. Who knows what's afoot, or not?

Hi jb. Again.

I don't see your response as a fair comment. Reconsider - one might wish to make a contribution, i.e. something other than understandable but never ending observation of the 'long' wait for news. That's it. Have fun. BFN

Jb - thanks for the explanation. I see you post only infrequently - we could really do with more of your brilliant stuff.

However, unabashedly, I'll post similar whenever I choose, if that's ok? GN.

Thanks jb. And your point is ?

With the strengthening and the widening of Team Scancell, the indications have suggested, until this recent dearth, that Scancell's IR was improving. I don't think the Team has suddenly got worse so it's a bit of a mystery, but then, 'twas ever thus.

Feeling thwarted as ever, myself that is, I think a better reference point for any despair, or panic, is this list from Bermuda over there. I think that No. 13 was added by Inan, but E.& O.E.

"Thanks to Bermuda, his 7909 over there:-

"Here are some items of potential news. Some are obviously much more important than others but in terms of building the flow of positive news could still contribute:-

1) Recruitment to SCIB1 cohort of current trial complete and last patient dosed

2) Confirmation that the 70% threshold has been met and therefore this arm of the trial is a success. If the ORR is maintained at 85% then that would be fantastic but I hope expectations won't be raised too high - the 70% is enough.

3) Presentation of these results at ASCO (would also be good to see participation at ESMO too)

4) Progress updates from the iSCIB1+ cohort

5) Recruitment complete for iSCIB1+

6) Top line results for iSCIB1+

7) Confirmation that pre IND meetings with the FDA have taken place and were successful thereby giving a clear development pathway forwards for SCIB1/iSCIB1

8) Clearance of IND and MHRA approval for the phase II/II SCIB1 trial

9) Details of the investigators for the phase II/III - particularly if Scancell have managed to secure any big US names

10) Confirmation that Genmab intend to take Scancell's mAb into the clinic and clearance of the IND. This should trigger a milestone but much more importantly it validates the Glymab platform for any others who may be evaluating other mAbs

11) Further Glymab deals

12) Addition of new mAbs

13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial

I'll stop there. As I said earlier, the big unknown is what happens re. the Redmile CLNs and whether they can get a decent funding away. Certainly it will be easier if they manage to deliver on the above."

And there you have it, as Freddie said . . . . . ?

Nil desperandum . . . . ATB

In 7914 : "I had left out Moditope and Avidimab. If we get any significant news from either then that's a bonus."

Plenty to wait for then . . . .

Thanks to Bermuda, his 7909 over there:-

"Here are some items of potential news. Some are obviously much more important than others but in terms of building the flow of positive news could still contribute:-

1) Recruitment to SCIB1 cohort of current trial complete and last patient dosed

2) Confirmation that the 70% threshold has been met and therefore this arm of the trial is a success. If the ORR is maintained at 85% then that would be fantastic but I hope expectations won't be raised too high - the 70% is enough.

3) Presentation of these results at ASCO (would also be good to see participation at ESMO too)

4) Progress updates from the iSCIB1+ cohort

5) Recruitment complete for iSCIB1+

6) Top line results for iSCIB1+

7) Confirmation that pre IND meetings with the FDA have taken place and were successful thereby giving a clear development pathway forwards for SCIB1/iSCIB1

8) Clearance of IND and MHRA approval for the phase II/II SCIB1 trial

9) Details of the investigators for the phase II/III - particularly if Scancell have managed to secure any big US names

10) Confirmation that Genmab intend to take Scancell's mAb into the clinic and clearance of the IND. This should trigger a milestone but much more importantly it validates the Glymab platform for any others who may be evaluating other mAbs

11) Further Glymab deals

12) Addition of new mAbs

13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial

I'll stop there. As I said earlier, the big unknown is what happens re. the Redmile CLNs and whether they can get a decent funding away. Certainly it will be easier if they manage to deliver on the above."

Good stuff ! Thanks again Bermuda . . . .

Hi Bazooka, thanks. I venture we've seen that before . . . then as now, it seemed odd to me that CFO is going, as it does seem to be a scientific conference. The "VP Head of Business Development, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca" is also sitting on that Panel?

Also just to note that Sath as CFO and Prof. Lindy as CEO are shown as the only Executive Directors for Scancell now that SA has moved on.

Good luck to Sath at the Chicago Waldorf ! And GLA.

Dragon - whilst Paul 23.01 is quite right about 'IMO', I agree very much with your 01.42 re. the motivation behind all his posts. As I've no time to waste on this I'll filter him.

I remain optimistic and am looking forward to news !

Enjoyed that Moonparty and yes your maths are wrong, (as you know).

But all good fun - and we finish for the weekend in blue !

It's the weekend - Andrew Bridgen was making some dramatic comment in Parliament yesterday re. mRNA vaccines. Worth a watch ? https://youtu.be/z4oSLajsHrY

I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !

""Why is everyone stressed ?

Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.

From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.

If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.

Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).

Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.

From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""

Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.

Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?

I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA