Member Info for Tornadotony

Usually these are short meetings, but I noticed they will do QA for those attending. Anybody going to it and will they raise the inevitable question on where things are on funding and how the company is sustaining anything. The AGM raises £318-319k for what are Director salaries and PA himself is up for re-election. Probably better that we have someone on the PI side that Directors would give a meaningful response that in part could be conveyed to the rest of us.

Https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/10/new-york-fed-report-27-percent-of-bank-capital-is-extend-and-pretend-commercial-real-estate-loans/

In the back drop of $36 trillion government debt and $18 trillion US household debt eventually hitting the point of no payable return.

After Captain Betts hit the iceberg at full speed they have allowed widows and orphans to leave (at 2p) on lifeboats in the freezing cold sea. The lower decks are filling up with water. God bless you all.

What is the relevance to on-going rare earth market price activity in China on a LSE company website board that is not in production, does not have a plant under construction, has not borrowed any finance for construction to date and has yet to acquire all the financing and is focused on a market from 2027 onwards. It has a meaning for those supporting existing Chinese producers who somehow think it would dissuade western investors supporting future non Chinese supply chains that will have used high grading on all their own resources or those they had access to.

Apparently USA banks expect USA Government debt to go up a further 35% under Trump as he brings in loads of tax cuts and that is after all the spending cuts being aired. Gold pullback is a future gift for those buying the metal and good quality miners. A case of dripping feeding in small buys on a decline.

A lot of miners going behind the wood sheds for a beating. Way overdone with RSI going as low as 19 on 5 hourly for some. Nothing specific wrong on Centamin.

Gold prices in July at 2400 matched the hedge rate for what is now all the production volume. The mean share price was 1680-1700 range for 21 July week. The pound was worth 2% more at that time against USD. The SP is now well below the hedged rate price of just a few months ago. A break of the 200 day moving average at 2471 is breached on the current price which is sub 2300 per ounce.

Sorry about typos

were to invest......

instead of back dates taxes ...........

The company were go to invest $20M in Mali and that may not happen. As a consequence the mine output drops, revenue drops AISC goes far higher and nobody makes more money. The simple solution was Mali wanting the same deal as other African countries which is about 50-55% inclusive of all royalties and having 1 April 2025 start date and the company agrees $20M in advance payment as a tax off set in 2025/26 by end of this year and goes ahead with $20M Mali mine investment and keep ounce production high. Such a measure is then sustainable over what they are trying to do in back date taxes to different rates. It sustains investment and best practice. Barrick is leading on that discussion.

PE trailing was 18.13 and then moved to 22.5 in September but the forward PE is 13.59. The median historical rate is around 16.9. PE is therefore average range for the stock. The analyst forecast of around 1125p is not far off where it should go in a normal market.

If you add in resolute mining you will see why it has support where it is at present.

Add comparison barrick gold in the attached and look at year to date.

Https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/endeavour-mining-plc-ord-usd0.01/share-charts

Dibs

Endeavour have already negotiated new terms in Burkino Faso eight weeks ago. The cost was around $240M for goodness sake and reported in the FT and was achieved by nationalisation of two old mines. It is not in the same situation as Resolute Mining that actually has cash in the bank of $145M and has not renegotiated terms with Mali Government unlike other mining companies. Endeavour is currently $940M in debt although expected to pay off end of 2025.

What is important is the reduction in gold open interest and how gold behaves as we hit major support lines.

2572 spot gold is 100 day SMA support on daily chart. 2561 is a weekly chart support line for spot gold and 2470 is the 200 day SMA that has really strong support. November is pulling back in price for jewellers to restock gold on physical side and the physical market retreated in October in the Chinese market. Hence nearly all the miners are getting whacked of late. Gold is also approaching a wave of oversold signals and we await to see how it goes.

Endeavour continues to behave similar to Barrick gold.

Possibly slightly higher high over the last time we got just pass 12p. Hopefully the low is at a higher level as well.

A fourth element in play is a negative motley fool article to dissuade investors to promote a different share. I have lost track on how many negative articles by the Motley Fool result in the exact opposite of what follows next.

Https://www.ft.com/content/da63f749-1ebe-42f7-b43e-b832962d5c49

In the article it mentions Hummingbird resources having yet to renegotiate the mining permit at Yanofila and back taxes. It may be wise to assume a zero valuation on this asset.

Three things do not make sense.

1. Dividend next week.

2. Most analysts confirm NG is around 16% lower than their target.

3. Short interest in USA has fallen significantly in the past month.

The direction of travel of late is lower instead of higher on what one may expect with the above.

Raises target by 400p to 2500. The outlook must be for late 2025 when all the debt has paid off returning 900M on Enterprise value.

Pound falls 1.35% in a week, dollar basket value up, 85% of Q4 production is hedged at 2400. So the gold price fall has minimal impact on earnings as unhedged ounces could have been sold higher already.

No dibs. Put endeavour in comparison to Barrick gold which went down 5.4% yesterday and Endeavour recovered a bit later on to end 5.14% in TX.

There was no change from what happened last Friday with Resolute mining on the comparison chart with Barrick and Endeavour. If they raise the Royalty by 5% when gold is at high prices it will probably resolve the argument and they will be best friends again.