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Major support line at 958p. In 2010 it did not retreat like this in December and actually went up in value (last rights issue). If 958 falls and this drops to a deeper support line it will become the very worst preforming December for this utility stock in decades. In the summer NG can retreat more but not in the depths of winter. FTSE is quite stable. Morgan G has NG as its best utility stock to hold.

Now second worse performance in December since 2013. Weekly stochastics remain on zero. FTSE 100 is not crashing. NG continues with increasing numbers of oversold technicals.

Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-bull-china-shop-0

Near end of article

Due diligence would value the mine at zero as a worse case outcome.

Likely historical demand on tax around $28M using Resolute mining as a guide. Functional mine value $56M however new mining code probably results in being valued just above historical tax debt. Dugbe worth whatever someone would pay for it. Due diligence would focus on the new mine as it carries all the debt.

2013 +2.1%

2014 -1.3%

2015 + 1.4%

2016 +5.9%

2017 -1.2%

2018 -7.9%

2019 + 7.4%

2020 +2%

2021 +5.3%

2022 -2.7%

2023 +0.3%

7 gains 4 losses on the month.

2024 thus far -2.4% with 2018 and 2022 being worse.

The information that is unknown are the models used to deliver due diligence.

1. The assumption and range given on future gold prices. (1800, 2000, 2400, 2600 dollar per ounce models).

2. The additional Capex required to deliver stable production. (Incorporate second mill operation, additional fleet, additional drilling on holes and deeper depths on pre-planned mine ore removal for processing, additional waste stripping, annual conversion spends on resource to reserve conversions and so forth). Models also identify 5 year spend profiles.

3. Profit accounting allowing for debt interest and speed of debt recovery.

4. Risks taken into account and reserve mitigation costs along with environmental recovery on mine depletion.

5. Stable production profiles at 80,000 per annum, 100,000 and 120,000 ounces.

Without the details it is impossible to forecast on what the buyer may offer. The delay is to accommodate both desk work on the modelling, but also to identify if production has found stability criteria. I believe lawyers may have suggested that evidence from modelling offers transparency on the outcomes arrived at. Hence they allowed the team more time over Christmas to finalise all the data.

For those who vote base your decision on whether you see transparent data or not. Slightly good sign imop they are taking more time if it reveals what the situation is and the basis of their decision making.

Tony (holds no position, but trying to help where I can here).

Tony

Significant pull back makes no sense unless USA and UK have decided no need for climate change agenda and no future involvement in supporting AI data centres. Can see a pull back in a market wide crash impacting just about everything.

Added again. Gap in chart remains significant.

Tested the 38% FIB point at 974.6p for some reason and held. I topped up that allowed a small average down in position. We have a chart gap all the way to 992p. Chart gaps on UK side always get back filled when we have no RNS. Helpful buying opportunity imop thanks to whatever happened in USA or Asia. Resistance line is very strong at 1008 and we have very strong support around 958p. Expecting NG to remain in this range in Christmas run up.

Https://www.voanews.com/a/biden-to-spotlight-angola-s-lobito-corridor-his-legacy-to-counter-china-in-africa/7879407.html

I want to see that economic report from Rainbow and hopefully a flowsheet of 2025 news targets.

In the title. Endeavour is priced at 2450 gold price in relation to end of Q2 valuation data. UK Pound is heading below Q2 valuation levels. Endeavour should be around 1675p.

The Assafou PFS was aimed to be delivered this month. It was to proceed the reserves and resources updated report as the PFS contributes a large percentage of new reserve ounces. The discovery range was to be within 12-17M of resource ounces by end of 2025 with 10 million resource ounces delivered to date.

I am hoping the PFS outcome will deliver on reserves and add to new resources ounces.

Within quarterly reports ITY and Hounde had found new ounces of gold and hopefully both reserve and resources. Significant exploration activity was in Senegal and consumed nearly 40% of all exploration work on expenditure that will hopefully deliver a good result.

The reserve and resource analysis involves 7,056 holes drilled as identified on 7 November quarterly report. This is probably a huge task to work through and hence we may not get this report until late January 2025. It is far more important to deliver accurate data that will include future exploration drilling as well as contribute to the mine plans for existing mines.

As Q4 production around 390,000 ounces need to be delivered to hit targets of which 183,000 ounces is not hedged. The top end call collar for 133,000 ounces is $2400 and for 76,000 ounces the top end call was $2408. We know at least half the unhedged is above $2500 gold price if production is at low end of target range.

All hourly, daily and weekly overbought signals are gone and numerous indicators just above oversold. All set for news if we get any next week. (Want to be where it is not all overbought that follows by a sell on news response).

Things never go up or down in straight lines. If they get overbought, certain people top slice and explains why some start calling a wolf to the door on websites such as this. Have not done any trading here myself as I am gradually depleting all historical CGT and need to hold pensana as a CGT asset if I need it. UK Chancellor is leaving PIs with ISAs as they only vehicle for many to use. Pensana is a share to hold in non-ISA accounts imop. I therefore see PIs being pulled out of small company investments in general. Having nobody who has worked in business on the UK government side is leading to a loss in confidence. I recall the days of M&S involvement with Thatcher and Sainsbury with Blair. They need that kind of expertise desperately at this time in both those cases the business input was highly intelligent and led to joined up changes and efficiencies.

Punter64

It clearly implies in the RNS they can only guide production output until 31 December. They have clearly stopped all test drilling to identify mined out ore grades and any test drilling used for future mine planning which is typically under 10 metre intervals within pit shells hence they can not guarantee steady state production on the outputs. They have no idea what they are delivering into the gold circuit for Q1. If the grade has dropped to waste cut off levels then quarterly output is near 5,000 ounces. The mine would not have AISC below 1500 and would likely be losing money on 2400 gold price. The debt interest and administration costs would likely deliver a net loss. On top of that you will have a review team that are not going to find miracles to save existing shareholders.

Also in the RNS document......

Nothing in this announcement is or should be relied on as a promise or representation as to the future. This announcement includes certain statements, estimates and projections provided by the Company in relation to the Company's anticipated future performance. Such statements, estimates and projections are based on various assumptions made by the Company concerning anticipated results which may or may not prove to be correct. No representations or warranties are made by any person as to the accuracy of such statements, estimates or projections.

GI Hum,

The company is sending in a team to do a review. As night follows day, that team are likely to have a report 80% written already. It probably identifies inadequate stripping in earlier stages of the mine plan and subsequent limitations on known ore grade for milling. It may also include the need for two operational mills instead of one because of dilution variations in grade on feedstock ore and also on quickly one mill had to be re-lined and the advantage of having two working and having varying maintenance schedules between them. The cost per ounce is therefore higher on AISC and the economics of the project are less attractive. I see little that could support a repayment to existing shareholders in that future report. This all goes back to a rushed exercise in commencing this project so soon after acquisition without a very thorough feasibility studies and mine planning. Tony

pablo this will not go into administration. it will go private and pis are at grave risk of getting nothing if you read the rns published today.

1. they will get hammered by mali government probably for $14m that will come out of the pis $20m pay back at 2.67p. mali mine has also made another loss on top. 75% on the offer has gone somewhere else.

3. the production is not in steady state. they gave no forecast on q1 production as they do not have adequate data of the ore grade for processing and when they will get back into higher ore.

in essence buying more shares here is like a publican ******* money higher up on the wall.

Why- because the ask and bid spread was 11.0p to 11.5p. The sell side has been moving higher from 11.24p to 11.32p. This often proceeds a move higher in the buy price. The message is that if you want to buy sub 11.5p the market maker was looking for more shares to sell which suggests the buy price often goes up.