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UK currency devalued 1% against USD. NGG unfortunately has taken out all support lines and has gapped down UK market open despite 1% hit. We shall see if UK market ignores gapping attempt tomorrow or quickly moves higher and stays above support lines.

When someone these days say they are European, it usually means they are Russian.

NG management made it clear to Milliband that the cost was far less if given more time, but he was not interested in underground cables and wanted vast number of pylons installed all over UK countryside including areas of outstanding beauty and having a small army to police delivery. Interesting to see what OFGEM and the government decide to do. Nobody has industry experience in the cabinet and they do not consult with anybody who is successful in business except a few outside consultancies that ask them what they want to read and they write it. One thing is for sure NG has a lot of publicity.

The market has just matched up with NGG close. The USA market has been leading this share downwards for some time. We shall soon see how they respond to the RNS. Rachel from accounts may be the bigger problem than just Milliband

Fair enough Reetech.

I suspect with Trump coming into office in late January as well, that a lot of CEOs will be waiting to see what he does and how it impacts on financing, energy markets, defence and technology. It probably allows George to continue his perfectionist approach awhile longer. Also interesting to see if EV car markets pick up again or not. The macro scenario is genuinely slowing things down a bit. Tony

Good signal that we are nearing the bottom/forming one for the next rally.

Further opportunities for operating and capital cost optimisation will be explored in H1 2025 alongside separation test work.

The above does not say Q1 2025. The work programme is going to be a few months longer.

Oops on charts gaps it was NG not NGG near the end of my last message.

Welcome aboard.

NGG in USA is taking the share back to 929p tonight thus far (yahoo NGG). London market broke out of the 4 hourly down channel, but USA market has pushed it back in. A breach of 922p would be the worse December performance in this stock since it was privatised in late December 1995. We have a major seasonal variation in play in seeing such an aggressive pullback from 994p. 926p is a major support line as a breach firmly places RSI levels into the 20's. Market screener website has chart data giving 918p as major support on the daily chart for NG. Slow stochastics are severely oversold 3/100 on daily and zero on weekly. Daily RSI has managed to crawl back to 33.7 in London, but has probably been returned back to oversold under 30. Putting a buy into play when stock is oversold is far better when it is hugely overbought and likely for a correction. We have little in the way of fundamentals to suggest the current pull back. Berenberg has NG on the lowest target price at 1070p which they recently provided. Finally there is a significant chart gap between 983-990p without any corresponding RNS for causation. Chart gaps in most FTSE 100 stocks get back filled eventually. Every chart gap created in the last year on NGG without an RNS release has been back filled in the last year if my memory serves as correct.

All the best Tony

Steve you will love this one. Today it has been shadowing Barrick Gold. At some point it has to bottom and start a rally. If you look on market screener, you can see how earnings go up next year.

TX session took out the last FIB support line. There is very little left as we enter rare territory. We may have a support line of some sort at 1325 as the RSI gets into extreme oversold. The vast majority of shares are held by institutional investors with PIs being quite a small minority. One very negative analyst in Canada was proven wrong as the prediction of precious little ounces being converted from resources to reserves in Cote de Ivorie delivered 4M ounces in reserves. They claimed a new employee in charge would fail to deliver and thus far they have delivered on results. The forecast earnings next year are sky high over 2024. This must be an institutional tree shake of some kind.

If Endeavour was 1480 the price pull back from late October peak would be the same as Barrick Gold.

In the last 10 weeks the share volume is less than 7.5% of all shares held and yet the share price is utterly smashed. Not all that volume are sells.

Theo,

The new manager could put in a bid to receive UK asylum seekers and they have a team of admin processing the applications as they live in tent land. In the meantime asylum applicants could do their own crop work and who knows decide that Angola is a better place than UK. Knowing this Government they may find $5000 per person plus food costs as a good deal as that compares well to say 50 days in a UK hotel especially if it is 4 star. Certainly would help Pensana keep going to someone decides they want non-Chinese sourced rare earths. It would also give the new National manager somebody to boss around. All the best Tony

GGG

Just to add this share is often dominated by the TX market over London on volume and direction. It can also behave like Fresnillo with 50-100p upward moves in one trading session and vice versa. Tony

Hi GGG,

What we do know is Endeavour was performing similar to Barrack Gold until the gold rally started mid November and Barrack Gold have held a 3% advantage since then. The subdued response to a higher gold price may have been a hedging effect. It should be said that all the gold miners are not responding as they normally would to higher gold prices at this time. This occurred in the 2011 gold rally as it was made known that hedge funds were long and shorted the miners as a hedge play. This time such clarity has been obscured as it has been the case elsewhere in the equity market.

If there is an impact on all West African mining it is around 7% and took place over a period of time in the summer. Hence why gold miners within ETFs that do not involve African miners are genuinely higher between 7-10%.

The AISC situation was mainly caused by grid energy supplies that arose in Q2 and have not been a problem in Q3 and Q4 to date. The miss is mainly attributed to higher gold prices that invoke higher royalty costs. For Burkino Faso mines it is around $47 an ounce. When the AISC targets were devised the breakout in gold was probably not anticipated. The AISC increase is well under the expected gold per ounce sold increases that are being delivered this year. ITY has been a good out performer and only 1 of 5 mines is missing their target production target at the lower end. Overall the share price has not performed anywhere near a high end production output throughout 2024. Next year the new mines will be delivering 150,000 more ounces and older ones say 30,000 ounces less.

Thus far real problems directly impacting has arisen in Mali and Endeavour has no functional mines present. Mana in BK is an underground mine. Anyone who consider an underground mine is an easy operation knows little about mining. A surface only mine is a lot less dangerous and the BK government would be unwise to try and nationalise it. Endeavour negotiated the nationalisation of two of its old mines and received $60M from BK government. The recognised value was probably 4 times that agreement, but it has kept good relationships with the government of BK. The one remaining mine at Hounde in BK does need significant investment to keep producing 250-260k per year. Endeavour are the best organisation to deliver continuity of income arising for that mine for BK. The remaining mines are in Senegal and Cote de Ivorie and currently account for a larger company output. However the growth is in those two countries next year is et to increase significantly.

Overall GGG, I just wonder how oversold this particular stock has to get. My portfolio has a chunk of cash still available but I am waiting to join a rally upwards as I have made some buys above 1500 of which some were last week.

If you drip field a few buys in here there is a chance of being pleased by the spring of 2025. regards Tony

I can not believe the share price is 1460's. The share price was barely above $2000 an ounce when we last down here. The company has recovered 4 M reserve ounces which is near 3 years and 9 months of production. That is equivalent of 8 to 9 years of the complete remainder mine life of the output from burkino faso.

Selling continues and the hint may have been previous overbought signals. Could be a rinse and repeat job. Also the equity market has volatility.

Got my wish for a report by Christmas. $326M build cost up $31M on inflation. Market response thus far is fairly neutral.

Poor hedging finally ends this month. 85% unhedged next year. Remainder hedge collar is up to $2400 an ounce.