Member Info for Tornadotony

They employ around 990 staff. The numbers getting redundancy, should give a steer on how much of the company is getting sold off. I suspect Kenya project staff might be scrambling around a bit and polishing CVs.

The enterprise value at the current price is $3,690/ 2P (reserves in millions of barrels of oil) 245 = 15.8.
A company such as Tullow should have a value around 18 as the production of oil is quite inexpensive.

So the share price is undervalued between $720M which equates to 39p. So if the share was doing the same as it peer group it would be 87p. Hence why some here feel the share price is cheap.

If anyone can find an EV/2P table for oil companies please share the link.

If the futures break at 1563 on gold its really bad here for Fres. 609-618 next area of support.

Okay now we want to get near 50.7p where it closed last Friday.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-tullow-premier-oil-ahead-075159442.html

Tullow own 50% of the block so you are correct that 25% of the entire block is probably worth about $400M which is half of what Tullow own.

Auson

The hedge I believe is on Brent price. Certainly the non-Ghana wells are all Brent oil from memory.

Incidentally there is a gap in the chart from this morning between 49-49.7p. I expect it to get back filled. Hopefully then a close above 50p.

Median value for the Tullow blocks is around $800M. The fire sale price is $600M, auction between multiple bidders could drive the price up to $950M. I would not be surprised if it went for $775M or somewhere around that level. The total cost of production is between $30-32 per barrel. 600M-800M barrels at 2C ish for $1.25$ per barrel is about right.

If 1563 breaks a trend change downwards could be starting to unfold.

The coronavirus numbers yesterday ae showing the widespread self isolation and enforced isolation measures are slowing down the spread of the disease. It also implies the incubation phase in most cases is under 10 days. another week and there is a chance of a sharp drop in new cases. If China switches off for another two weeks they may well have a handle on all this. What we need is OPEC to agree to cut a large amount of production for 5 weeks and review the situation again. This would plan a floor under oil and all the stock markets. Keeping praying Adam just maybe someone is listening.

Thank goodness we have 60% covered for 2019 at $57 a barrel. Just hoping they are using it from now on.

SARs happened at the same time as USA economic down turn under George Bush Jr. The SARS epidemic lasted 4 months. The fall in oil from $36 WTI to $24 WTI was less impacted by China as it had less annual use. The drop was dominated by a fall in USA demand.

China demand is higher and 20% pull back is 2.8M barrels a day. Quite a few other countries will increase their oil demand as they replace some Chinese manufacturing and service industries switch to less affected parts of the globe in other activities. So not all the 2.8M barrels is lost from demand. 800,000 is off line from USA that was expected in added production and not materialising. Another 750,000 is off line from Libya. OPEC are proposing another 500,000 to come off line and the current lower oil price could take another 800,000 off line in the coming weeks. Overall the oil picture could be near balance. We also have the added technical advantage of vaccines being available far more quickly.

The support line is at 649p. If it stays above Fres is okay. If it closes below and stays below it tomorrow close as well then the breakout has been invalidated. We then find out where the new support lines are.

Without a shadow of a doubt the block ha a sell value of $500M. Sell it Total and pay off debts. Focus on getting value in Suriname next year and then sell that off and reduce more debt off the company's back. The assets excluding Uganda cover over 70% of all debt due and FCF over 5 years wipes out the rest or sell Uganda as well and have next to no debt. The company is then a cash cow for a very long time afterwards.

All gift wrapped by ECO with a bow on it.

Move down by around 1% together. Similar to 2018 type of move. Probably it for today. The trend will be important to watch in coming days.

How on earth is Tullow having a down day. Another reason why the company gets taken over kindly advertised by ECO. Alternatively as they sell Kenya blocks a portion takes a shot at two Guyana targets and then cay sell half the result on a farm down and debt becomes less than 2B in 2021. If they sell the blocks completely it still may have $500M price target.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4320190-abrupt-reversal-of-shale-oils-fortunes-points-to-radical-reset-of-oil-prices?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

Apologies to those who have seen this already or it was posted on here before. Tony

ElProf

I do agree with the point you are making. It does have a much stronger association as you describe in H2 rallies where we have more physical gold buying. It could happen now but I remain lightly loaded and just on Centamin gold miner stock.
Bargain basement will start appearing in the oil sector as oil gets slammed. Watch out for 32 barrels of WTI to one gold ounce as that differential would be the highest ever and it can not last. As oil goes down some banks who provide hedges also get hit. I wonder what they have used to have a secondary hedge if they had to pay out. Regards Tony

The Acacia deal does include some proven ounces as I quoted those figures in pounds but not a lot.