Member Info for Tornadotony

If we had struck oil the value to the stockwould have been around 4 to 5p. Prior to the drill result no benefit or at most 1p was given. The cost of the Marina well was under $30M or less than 1.7p of the share price value.

The company has to have a good story for the market to hear. They have good plant, they have necessary resources to deliver plant output. They need to give a better picture of how Hoschild will have plenty of silver and gold to process well above 10 years for now. They may have other companies trucking ore to them and sharing profits through processing. Whatever model they have needs to be more transparent. The weakness here is longer term mine life and they need a model to show they have enough strength for that not to be a concern. If they can do that serious investors will get on board and see the potential. Otherwise the company is not going anywhere despite higher silver and gold prices. So the annual report has to deliver a good story that people can believe in.

Hawkey,

Tullow have a track record of just financial/quarterly reporting and giving drill results on wells in which they lead.

The only work to continual in Kenya is an FID team in case the Government approves a commitment to exploit oil discovery. The team may interface with Kenya Government on issues. I would not assume any further trucking taking place. SDA stake building has replaced around 7% institutional investors who have pulled out and the FT has picked these up as movers. A number of holders have stayed put and small private investors appear to have doubled their stake, mainly average downs since 9 December. SDA is not considered hostile and the stake is below takeover considerations.

The gas flaring is to maintain safety in the two oil fields and pressure build of gas in the wells. This allows the fields to remain operational as before and I presume the annual target stays the same. Neither party wants to do flaring it was forced upon by the World Bank and traces bank to a Trump appointee which wants ENI favoured by Ghana Government. ENI incidentally have been damaged badly in Libya with all their production currently down in that country.

Marina 1 is lead by another company, Karoon and you can find all the Marina 1 findings on their site. The good news is that we get a result end of February. So far drilling above the target has found a few gas pockets. It gets interesting the deeper they go.

Tony

https://www.observer.ug/businessnews/63507-painful-business-tales-as-uganda-holds-up-first-oil

Not sure how many saw this article a few days back. Uganda has to decide soon what its doing.

For all those with partners remember they are the most intelligent in the world because they chose you.

Tony's valentine day reminder!!!

Groundhog day.

Jim,

I suspect we close again around 44.6 or somewhere near there. It has got buyer support but overhead resistance is not allowing Tullow to get a foot hold. It is yet another day where the production hedge is in reserve for H2. Tony

Well today's RNS on the going's on between the NMC Directors on company shares is just unbelievable. Who knows what will happen on that share. Cookie jar looks to have been raided.

Not an expert on corporate bonds and just wonder why they are stressed out and lower than 9 December on the 2025 bond. The perceived view is that the bond is repaid and a smaller longer dated bond replaces it. As long a Tullow sells some assets to bring debt in total down to say $1.2B, I would expect a remuneration would validate the existing earnings, the assets held and future prospects and their risks to identify its repayment and rollover the following 4 years.

The bond market has been dropping in the past few weeks and I do not have the answer for it.

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

Bond chart for ease of reference. If that does not mean anything, great, but explain why.

Look at the bond chart and that may be the reason why.

Great news if the drill results are known in two weeks or less. A reasonable hit takes the share well into the 50's.

27 days to target depth.

Tullow probably did not use the hedge today or yesterday so more available in Q3.

Last year there was a problem with one of the TEN wells. Instead of continuing to flog a dead horse it has been regarded as better to replace it with the Ntomme new well in a differet TEN reservoir. The improvement on TEN is likely to ensure that quoted targets are close or above predicted mean as they resolve more topside issues.

TDG

For the rest of us, its like swimming with a whale.

Dark night your comments on Coronavirus are misguided. The infection rate is probably 3 fold higher but the numbers with incredibly mild symptoms are equally huge. The real mortality rate is most likely to be around 0.8% which is still 10 fold higher than normal influenza outbreaks but not as bad as the 1918 Spanish flu that had 2.2% mortality. The problem with China transparency is exact opposite today as to broaden diagnosis beyond virus assays to CT scans brings in normal influenza cases plus TB and anything else that infects lungs. Any cover up was back in early December when no viral test was available.

4400M in previous

The answer for Tullow is swapping exploration blocks for a share of oil from producing oil fields elsewhere. If they find 15,000 barrels per year for 8 years to cover debt repayments which is around 44M barrels equates to a $440M trade to Tullow and they cede 4400 barrels of prospects in blocks which Guyana alone is half than the FCF earned per year returns to $350-400M for 8 years and they still have Kenya blocks to sell off as well. I am convinced Tullow will recover once we get a CEO and these kind of deals and swaps materialise and the company portfolio and identity is sensible again.

If the numbers added this morning were from earlier patients before the coronavirus test was available it would have been a steeper rise at the beginning of this disease and not a sharp rise today. Again those numbers are a worse case. WHO need to sort this all out today. The DNA test is specific to the code of the virus a CT scan is not.