Member Info for Tornadotony

81% down from the peak shareholder value just 10 months ago. How much more blood do they want?

Some quality chart data shared and comments where folks feel it might go.

Centamin, Polymetal and Fresnilo went up together. Gold and silver were fairly neutral. I think the best earnings data maybe 30 cents for the year or 23p. 736p share price is 32 PE which is on the expensive side but lets say forward earnings is 45 cents or 34p which is 612p on the current 18 PE rate. It then comes down to what is a reasonable PE rate to work on. Perhaps Centamin rate at 23 times earnings which gives a target of 781p applies to Fres is not unreasonable to work with. This however assumes gold stays above $1535 and silver near $18 for all of 2020.

I will wait for my 590 entry in the spring months and then go for the breakout in H2 to 780p. I will do this when oil and gold start going up together. (We have some hope of inflation).

I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL3P5R-B0Wo

A bull trap offers a low morning price goes up and then a lift shaft drop to a lower low. Can not be sure if this is the case but this is a favourite way to trap new entry positions.

If everyone played sell at 52 and buy at 48 and we did it 22 times we would all be out in a month.

I know a boat load of tourists added 10 cases but Japan is no up to 45 Coronavirus cases. Singapore needs to contain as well. The virus battleground to stop spread through Asia is truly on. I think its likely that OPEC may offer a cut. The real problem is that it may be completely ineffective.

A lot of oil companies are now selling assets. Selling the Kenya blocks may take time. They may get off loaded in 2021.

I agree with GS. However that may be an average price for all of 2020. The variation from the mean could be 20p to 30p depending which quarter of production and the prevailing sentiment in gold as pointed out by the Prof.

If Russia does not agree some deal with Saudi Arabia on delivering oil production cuts tomorrow, oil will go down in price and we now have a situation where oil, copper, gold and silver are all now moving in the same direction. This is a very recent and new pattern coming together and they are all linked to a major economic downturn happening right now in China.

I am surprised we got all this lift before the OPEC meting has ended. I wonder if some texting has been done under the table.

Just dropped 0.7p

Tindrumgambler

I have quite a lot of Tullow stock. I have been neutralising some excessive ramping. Perhaps I will feel better when my wine delivery arrives. Moliva bronze winner.

BT Faith

Unfortunately it does matter to the bond holders. Its that lot who then short the stock.

If OPEC disappoints it could be quite horrible here. A coin toss. OPEC will want USA to cut as well and stop building their stocks. If OPEC cut do USA pump more?

Redundancies will not improve the FCF as it was factored into the target and oil price has fell from $60 to $56.7 hedge = a risk of lower CF at year end. January average was $62.5 so we have some fire cover the other way.

Support is at 47.8p and we have resistance at 50.8p for the time being.

They are at 613p and 601p.

Romeike

I have to agree £1 is unlikely on a takeover at the current time. I am now looking at 80p as best case with a lower global GDP having to be factored into the works. A bidder will argue they have to keep something back with the current uncertainty in the markets.

Stand corrected thanks to those who responded.

Tullow has scheduled drilling at the back end of 2020 in Guyana. It is the third drilling campaign scheduled. The Peru drill had to go ahead first. You can find it on the 15 Jan presentation. Another issue is a lack of Guyana infrastructure that will slowly develop during the year and in 2021. Making the discovery is just the first stage and it can thenbe frustrated by not being able to go further afterwards.

The key here is to watch oil either WTI or Brent. The ratio on Monday hit 31.8 barrels of WTI oil to one ounce of gold. The highest ever going back to 1970 is around 33.5 and only for a short time. Oil is dragging a lot of things down. Fresnillo and other miners do well on a ratio between 25 and 28.

We got a break on gold support and now await follow through tomorrow.