Member Info for Tornadotony

45,000 bopd is hedged around the $56-57 a barrel mark. As the oil price hits $56 or goes lower can Tullow supply all its 75,000 barrels per day under the hedge puts until they exhaust the contract or is 45,000 barrels a day no matter what the price all year round. Grateful for someone in the know on this point.

Just to add that the Ghana production figure is at 60,000 barrels average yearly target at $50,000 per flowing barrel.
the alternative is 2p reserve at $10= £2.45B plus 2p resources mainly from Jubillee giving $550M.

1. Entire Kenya disposal $600M after taxes and making a few people redundant, sellers cost, taxes etc.
2. Farm in Uganda $50M cash and financed route to market for 170 mmboe (=$805M) or sale of all asset at same price.
3. Existing Non Ghana production value = $200M
4. Ghana production not fire sale = $3B
5. Other licence areas other than Guyana equals all decommissioning and other redundancy measures.
6. Guyana blocks = $200M

$4,850M - $2,800M = $2050 allow another $150M on disposals costs and other taxes. $1900= £1461M which is roughly £1 a share.

No your not greedy is the short answer for an 80p target. On December 19th this share was trading above 66p.

A vaccine would be available by May 2020. Initial patients having it in April. Comparing to SARs underestimates technology improvements since 2003 to resolve this problem. Epidemiology monitoring has also improved.

The support line still intact thanks to a rally earlier in the week giving a buffer. If I double up here my average would be just over 58p. So far keeping it as back up.

It feels like hedge funds are running in front of a steam roller trying to make a few quid through buying gold. At some point this has to properly correct. Jumping into this sector now feels like buying very high.

Rebess your quite correct with your comments about Q1 and of course the arrangement is going to be 50/50 with EMRA. I still believe there is a retreat at some point on the SP and the real growth and good share prices will be in H2. Whenever companies invest in growth there is a temporary phase and dip in the SP. So far it has not happened. I just feel everyone is on one side of the boat and with no fear and lots of greed.

Good luck holders. I should have stayed with the original strategy. Staying in the cash and having a break from all this at leat for today.

The company is valued above £840M and it has $34M net debt. The reserves at best just give 2 years of mine life. Resources are mainly attributable to Volcan which is a future project. I can see Volcan being 55p of the share value of HOC at its current stage. Other projects may add another 10p. I am therefore down to just 3 functional mines with a resource at best of just 4 more years although exploration may add another year on. A company with a 7 year mine life earning 8 cents a year does not make up the pound I am left with.

HOC looks good value on its annual results and they present great metrics against other companies. The problem I have is what is left in the ground in future years. Am I missing something important? Tony

Rolling forward since 49p on Monday. 55.2-55.4p will be interesting area if this continues.

Not alone behind the wood sheds getting spanked.

550p needs a 1475 gold price.

I wish we had some financial info. These arrive 3 March. Await how the market reacts.

Had a feeling this might happen (because of silver and gold rather than Fres). Took off 2/3 rds at 640 and just holding a small amount for tomorrow.

A good end to the day on what was an awful day for the oil price.

A better epidemiology picture will emerge in the next 7 days on the coronavirus outbreak. Scenario 1 is that a huge increase in numbers infected appear, that 500 critical patients becomes 5500 in that for China, the recovery numbers leaving hospital are less than fatalities reported and a secondary breakout has happened say in Thailand. The opposite scenario is that the virus mutates into a milder form which often they do and serious critical ill is under a 1000, we have increasing recovery numbers well above fatalities reported and hardly no secondary breakout in other countries.

If things seriously tank, gold will eventually crash with it along with the gold miners. However gold and gold miners may be the first to recover. What may sky rocket are suppliers of high quality surgical masks. Most sites are now completely sold out. The only ones you can get are useless.

I could not find anything on Tullow at all?

https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypt-cancels-chinese-flights-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/