Member Info for Tornadotony

Typo 21 March 2020

https://www.energymixreport.com/wapco-pipeline-shutdown-to-limit-nigerian-gas-supply-to-togo-benin-and-ghana/

Until 31 March 2020

I should mention all the bonds having a up day for now.

A near double bottom is what your proposing. It can also move upwards to 58p after Russia has made it quite clear it was staying well within OPEC production compliance.

With USA markets opening we are in very close to alignment with 53.36. After 14:30 we get to see if a low has formed or is still forming. I see the opposite of some others here of a possible bull flag forming from 49.8p close but time will tell us for sure.

MrD

If TOTAL wants the lion share of the Uganda project and persuades Tullow management to sell it, the recovery process would progress quite sharply into the 80-90p territory. If Ghana utility company completes its pipeline to take more gas then production heads back up near 90,000 barrels a day and that would deliver the 140p. A year is probably a reasonable time frame and takes Tullow into a good position to pay off its bond debts.

53.36 was the 17 January low. So either a new low was formed that day and we close near 54p or higher or it closes lower and the move to 58-59p happens over a week or so. The next retreat would be 54-55 ish area. This all takes us into February. I would like to the share around 62p-64p by the March update.

I hope so but we have to wait and see as I am looking at daily charts.

I like to name my big buys and that will be the name for my Tullow one if I have to drop it on the market. Just saying.

If I used big bertha and double up, I would be around the 62p mark. At present remaining patient as not get to overweight on the position.

Hope it helps deliver the higher low and we move up from here.

To noggers,

There is a huge difference between a TOTAL, Chevron, CNOOC and a company like Tullow with under 1000 employees. The really big companies have the additional resources to spend time actually working through all the interconnecting complexities of the project development. They have a greater contingency reserve so when a mistake happens it usually gets fixed quickly where as a smaller company may resolve one problem but then neglect elsewhere and fall into the next elephant trap. So what is likely to be far more risky for Tullow does not translate as an equal risk. Tony

I am firmly of the view to sell all 2C resources such as Guyana, Uganda and Kenya. It is an absolute pain in the backside building large infrastructure for an oil business in countries that do not have the infrastructure and experience to quickly develop competently on their side of the table. This leads to cost overruns and an array of additional risks including geopolitical. The number one priority is to halve the debt asap. The reduced long term oil price projections is a big red flag. They should then concentrate maximising the efficiency of existing production assets. Peru and Suriname drilling keeps certain staff occupied while the company decides how extensive an exploration team they need and it probably complies with on-going contract agreements. A lower debt profile de-risks the company substantially and that 7% interest on debt converts towards a future divi restoration instead.

The prospect of Centamin following Fresnillo and reducing its carbon foot print by replacing some diesel with renewable energy is an important priority. By proceeding ahead with that project they are genuinely making an effort unlike companies such as Ryanair and others that talk about it and try and fool people they are off setters or reducing but actually deliver next to nothing.

Dbno is looking at shorter time frame charts and the drawback of doing it that way is following every nuance. If you read 5 hourly or 4 hourly charts a lot of noise in movements is filtered out. The same is true of Tullow bonds, its own SP and oil. If you look out at longer time frames you get to eat a lunch in peace and fit other things in during the day.

Mrd

Bonds retreating a little today hence why the SP is slipping back a bit as well. Again a higher chart low might be forming. Tony

The charts look different of course on different time frames. Your looking at the shorter span and I am on the daily.

DBNO I see why you bought at that point. I am staying off to see what happens.

Bulent

The buying will be to heavy for you to see low 40's. A lot of people will back up the truck and load up. You have to be realistic.

If it goes there I want the new low above 49.9 established today so we have a strong run next week.