Member Info for Tornadotony

This reminds me of Acacia before its takeover by Randgold. Another company that got itself in a fine mess with the Government demanding an absurd tax bill. It had a big drop of 75%. Found a stable base, rallied up a bit and then was took out at 50% above that stable price point.

As night follows day. A company that does not want to go looking for oil to buy out the company.

Unfortunately I am not a subscriber. Grateful to know what exactly suggested to you that the company was being prepared for sale. My own observations are that it is really handy to have completed a 95% of your reserves and resources by an independent source. Its even more handy that you have no CEO and won't have one before early March. Its great that all the bad news is out in the open and highly transparent to facilitate a quick solicitation. The feather in the cap was downgrading to the most recent realistic oil price. Finally to have a juicy closing price this evening to start the offers rolling in. Please add more of your own observations which are most welcome as we console ourselves after a good hiding behind the wood sheds.

I have looked at a variety of forecasts with the World Bank giving $70 per barrel for Brent and IMF at the lowest with $55. The vast majority are around $65 per barrel. EIA current figures for 2020 and 2021 as posted yesterday were $64.83 and $67.53 for 2021. If those projections proved true regarding EIA, Tullow earn $80M more this year and $140M more next year. So nothing special to spook the fall this afternoon. Increase in oil demand matches additional oil pumped by USA over next two years. I suspect oil prices to be stable for H1 2020.

4% of the company stock traded with 75% in an hour and half.

This is crazy. There was no takeover hints in the RNS which was my only real disappointment. The drilling of a new Ghana well is likely to upgrade the 2021 production from 70,000 to 75,000 as projected this year. They are working on several measures to resolve the gas off take and top side issues so I thought there was a decent upside recovery if not taken over. Clearly some fund thought otherwise and followed Royal London who have more or less quit already.

Since 2 December
Skandinaviska AB Denmark bank 4.54M shares
Merrill Lynch 3.06M shares
Societe Generale 3.55M shares
Hargreaves Asset management 3.83M shares

We are in good company.

Another tranche and the lowest buy thus far. If I can not trade it off this afternoon it will be another 2.5p drop in the pool average. It was not a negative RNS overall and they are allowing an additional month to carry out all the strategic work which makes a lot of sense. I believe the stock is undervalued.

I guess they can handle it.

$1.3B net in write offs after tax deduction. $1B income loss declared over 4 years= $2.3B. Debt reduced by $100M in 2019. Negotiations back on Uganda say worth $100M.

Company value eroded is $2.6B. $500M additional hit applied or £384M gives a value above 86p.

The share dropped £2B in value at 59p. The write downs are in dollars and allowing for lost revenue is $2B or so. The company is undervalued by around £450M as they equated SP pound value as dollars. The SP should in fact be 88p.

We have a balance in the 2P and 2C reserves which is critical in the company valuation.
Uganda farm down talks are back on. $100M towards helping reduce debts. A route to delivering a valuation of 23,000 flowing barrels a day to replace any depleting resources elsewhere as those barrels deplete several years into the future.
Leaner management profile to trim costs to FCF targets.
A lot of other things were as expected.

I wonder if it was a tree shake only and the bottom was in. I have left my orders on the book all week. Maybe another time. Unlikely to see the 555p type of drop in January.

Based on what they earned in 2019, the trading range would be 107p-144p depending on the backward PE rate given. Forward PE would not be based on the current gold price but the likely annual average for 2020 the same analyst is using to assess the forecast earnings.

I agree putting a short on at 111p looks extremely dumb at this time.

Short positions taken at 111p on Centamin by Endeavour will get closed if it hits 111p price. All the takeover trades are then out of the way and the trend hopefully upwards.

The share price will be all over the place as Endeavour and other major holders moderate their positions. I am holding for a bargain basement buy in if it happens and holding onto what I had before in the portfolio. Sold my polymetal to have cash ready for both Centamin and Fresnillo top ups.

Sold out of Polymetal with profits so now in good position to add back into Fresnillo if this goes into the 500 handle again.

Just sold the remainder for same price. Good luck holders. I need to keep some cash back otherwise I would have stayed in.

Absolute pain in the backside having umpteen RNS publications a day. I will be so happy not having cowboys riding our ponies.

Taken some profits at 1236 mark. I have a nagging concern of the appreciation of the rouble. Maybe unfounded letting my original holding run. 31p banked and will rebuy if this retreats a little.