Member Info for Tornadotony

The share price is being contained. Eventually real price to be found.

If a takeover was pushed through the Egyptian government would probably react. They are not stupid. Thus far nothing to react to.

Endeavour are a bunch of Charlatans being found out. There is minimal chance of takeover. Focus is on Q4 report. CEY to retest 131p next week because of gold price. Ignore the noise. Lots of new gold becomes economic to mine at 1400.

After selling at 1199, I rebought double the amount of polymetal at 1203. I have decided this is the miner to go heavy into the reporting season. Polymetal to hit 1300.

The revaluation on Tullow production alone is $900M or £692M = 49p on the share price and takes us to 108p if POO takes off. I have increased my Tullow investment by 200% to average down 70p thus far as it is only a matter of time before it goes back up. Other holdings over Christmas have managed my Tullow risk.

The real success is now to sell the entire blocks to another buyer and get the best price for them.

https://offshore.nridigital.com/offshore_technology_focus_dec19/offshore_guyana_no_longer_frontier_country

There is a limit what Tullow can do and staying with Africa 2030 vision is what they may do.

Must allow for hedging.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/--973316.html

Another 3p off

Back test look as if it was to 620p. I agree it has 700p written all over it. In fact 720p is probably resistance and 770p.

The move in Oil price adds around $150M plus value at $70 add another $200M

Cause was Malaria.

https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Alex-Mould-loses-daughter-828106

Averaged down another 5p. Decided to manage out the drop on what was the fair value drop of Capara not being the biggie we all wanted. At some point this could end up in a bid situation. They still have 70,000 flowing barrels a day and that alone is covering 85-90% of the existing debt.

Total 2019 acquisitions -disposals = $4.2B If they spent the difference on Tullow = 77p Total profits are $1B a month. $4.6B buy is 100p.

It restarted after 3 or 4 days later so I am not sure who threw that dead cat on the table.
Assets exceed debt so another dead cat chucked in. The fall back of 4p on Capara is spot on. All they need is two good hits in that area and valuation is $400M higher.

That was a fire sale worse case scenario 90p and I am not saying that is what Tullow is worth. For those buying in now, its helpful to have a worse case in mind. Of course we all want it to be a lot more!

I have a takeover value of 90p on Tullow and so a 72p average is not a particularly bad place to be. The trick is not to be in so deep that you have nothing for a rights issue if the go down that road instead.

In case Carapa disappointed I can stay put. Takeover more likely.

Expecting a back test on silver and the silver miners over the next week. Removes overbought and allows higher run up the following two weeks. Note 25 Jan is Chinese New Year. The real fun and joy on Fresnillo will be H2 in my humble opinion.