Member Info for Tornadotony

Last message from me as I am getting bored. Market value wiped off since 5 November exceeds £1.2B (pounds). Whatever arguments are made the company balance sheet in the short term, the company is bringing on line the same output as the entire Fresnillo mine for next 11 years which is a huge asset. It is normal for the share price to be lower when a new mine gets built and then the SP rockets higher when it comes on line which happens one year from now.

Nickel we are looking at completely different things. Lets look at as written in July RNS to keep it simple. June 2018 net debt $90M. Net debt June 30, 2019 is at $438M with cash flow balance of $362M. Gold price average of sales was 1325 in H1 so H2 earning more money which is 55% of income. Capex spend H1 $248M. Remaining due $402M. The company would pay back all the capex on its H2 earnings its cash flow balance may reduce by what it paid in dividends. The drop is not a balance sheet argument, its not a PE argument either, the pull back is more likely a seasonal low cycle. Incidentally they will publish presentations on 2 December.

Nickel

You have not delivered anything. Yes the company is spending $655M Capex this year to build a capacity of 14M Ag production per year and a new pyrites plant improving productivity by 5%. The cash flow is over $900M. The company is reducing running costs in H2. Show me a balance sheet that says something different.

Nickel

You are just pushing your own book and putting false data on the website. We can all read the Bloomberg data on the stock. Fresnillo and HOC are forming their lows first. As they bottom everything else catches up. Fres in 2021 will be plus 900p. A case of buying low. RSI is well oversold.

Auson
Laidback is the name suggests. Debt scheduled to decline. https://www.marketscreener.com/TULLOW-OIL-9590152/financials/

Nickel forgive my cutting in with your comment to blue eyes. If you put up a weekly chart of Fresnillo and you compare it to HOC, Centamin and Polymetal you can see how they nose dived on Fresnillo. All the companies were treated the same Monday to Wednesday. This has all the hall marks on a big fund deciding where to off load before their mate dumps a lot of silver and then gold. PE rates are a poor indicator for high NAV companies with huge resources in the ground. Your forgetting it has a high takeover value or has tons of assets it could sell which may well exceed $6B. To extract those assets it is easy to get loans and exploit them. PE is better on value stock not growth stocks which is Fresnillo for the very reasons why your concerned about them. All the best. TT

6th biggest drop in a day all year. No RNS which gave 3 big drops. Gold price drops explain 2 others. This is on nothing.

For goodness sake do not rely on 1 hour slow stochastics. Use the daily slow stochastics as a buy or sell signal!

Ooops its worth buying delete the not

Nickel_Investor

You would have a strong point if the gold price was $250 lower and silver was on $14 an ounce. The stock has moved in advance of an upcoming drop on gold and silver. This is likely to be short lived as various things hit the proverbial fan in January 2020. The fact is that the company is generating cash and yes its spending on a lot of essential capex. What follows is significant growth in earnings. The company model over the intermediate term is quite correct. The share has dropped out of the range for day trading and scalping moves into a longer term investment play where this share goes all the way back up to £11 or more a share. Its not worth buying and putting in a draw for a year or two.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
Demotion is probably below 550p Closes 4th December so 8.5 sessions to go. Fresnillo has traded like this before on high capex and lower profits.

The share price has retreated while silver and gold prices were good. The company has a new mine in late 2020 that adds 20% to silver output and replaces 40,000 ounces of gold per year not being produced by other mines. The $155M spent on new tailings processing improves recoveries by around 5% at least on silver and from an environmental perspective as well as financial is the right thing to do and the payback on both measures is over 10 years at least. A really strong foundation is being built for the future and Fresnillo is an investment buy especially at the current price. If it goes lower I will buy more to what I got in the 580's this morning.

I am buying more as it slips back.

Another Fres buy triggered under 600p. Only UK gold miner offering 2020 entry value.

Started Buying Fresnillo to hold for 2020. Last buy at 603.7

Hi Auson

I have not heard of Airforce Amy. Tornado in my case goes back to childhood memories of my dodging real tornadoes in the prairies of USA Midwest. Imagine your playing baseball and clouds roll towards you, sirens go off and one of those things drops a few miles in front of you. A case of learning to run very fast.

This is just the washing phase. The blow dry and reset is in December. If China does a phase 1 deal with USA, Tullow is well above 155p.

BondSan

This will hit 175 plus somewhere between January and end of March. There is a limit how many days/weeks in a row a stock can be held on zero slow stochastics. The sellers eventually get exhausted and are left with nothing for buyers to mop up. The market has only the buyers and shorts to close positions remaining. A case of buyers deciding what is a comfortable level of risk to get say a 16% rate of return in say 4 months.

MRD Good luck with that strategy. I have made two buys and now have 150p average and will not go digging into a deeper hole. I am content to hold six months and just see what happens. If China and USA can do a part 1 deal that is likely to help both countries than oil prices edge up to $63 a barrel on Brent for 2020. If they don't it is bad news everywhere and having cash at hand is useful.

In two weeks from the 217p price $1.4B in value has been taken from the company. What has changed is a loss of $50M cash flow on the year which is to be repaired next year. A lot of oil is hedged for sale. Only one of the two wells was offering decent pay back before sulphur content was measured. They have another 20 prospects in the block and the seismology data on the model is more confident. A retreat was justified but I wonder how long and deep they want to discount the price.