Member Info for Tornadotony

A CT scan will show all influenza viruses. Only an RNA antibody test can confirm it was coronavirus. They are assuming all CT scan infections translate over. Incidentally you can not CT scan 1000's of people on limited available equipment. Someone is getting protocols wrong. The original data in my opinion was correct.

I wonder if normal flu deaths are now muddled with coronavirus epidemic.

The pull back in the last half an hour has probably given the RSI a cool down. I sense its a good omen for tomorrow and the share can move higher tomorrow.

Total said that 2 wells will be drilled in Guyana when Tullow said before they are both not.

The clue here is whether Tullow is selling Guyana blocks for cash or do they trade them with Tullow to have a share from production from either Angola or Nigerian off shore fields that helps 75,000 barrels a year to say 90,000. Tullow may need to toss in Peru and Suriname blocks as well. If they do FCF earnings get restored as we go back to earlier 2P output. After all the exploration staff have been cut back.

TDG
I managed to get out of Asian Citrus Holdings with a profit a few years back. I sold as soon as a Director sold stock before a reporting RNS. I heard later it was the owners father who sold all his shares in the company after seeing the orange crop survey report. The report mentioned an infestation destroying quite a bit of it. Thankfully I followed his action. The response to analysts at the RNS call in was hilarious. Welcome to NMC as its dead similar to ACHL.

TDG
You are completely nuts going into NMC.

Tony

I have estimated the fair value share price on that model should be over 75p. It precludes the impacts of the gas issues in Ghana eventually being resolved, anything happening or not on Uganda, or new discoveries in future of remaining held assets.

Noggers you sold so hence the negativity.

100m 1P up on reserves thanks to Jubillee Ghana.

I went through the accounts and the 2C to 2P swap works. Dorothy et al has reduced revenue needs by $180M so far. The hedge this year gives time to exchange assets. Total want Guyana. Tullow wants 2P available now from existing field. The company has less value than Dec 2019 but its much higher than current SP

back up

This website !

The company swapped and sold some 2C assets for 10 years of life functional 2p assets and recover production targets ack u to 95,000. Mainly Guyana goes and Kenya fully goes but 2021 paid off and back to 350-400 FCF.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/uganda-to-borrow-118-mln-from-china-to-build-roads-key-to-oil-production

They are pressing ahead. Total is the big company on this project in helping Tullow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU

Come on baby next stop 48p.

Explains a lot.

I am more confident that coronavirus will come under control. All the mild cases are exaggerating mortality data. This could prove to be just 2-3 times worse than a seasonal flu epidemic. We shall know in 7 days time.

As for Tullow I am holding and maintaining 125% cash reserve against the position. Not trying to play the bottom as Peru ad 12th March reports are what I look forward to.

Expects FID in Uganda as 2020+. They have made it clear what s to be sorted out beforehand with Uganda Government. They support Tullow farm down arrangement.

If the farm down happens plus Kenya block sales that would less than $200M debt against FCF income over 2.5 years. Tullow proven resources would be around 425 million barrels by 2023. (100 off Ghana as produced and 60 Ghana from resources to reserves). Enough to reschedule for years debt more smoothly.

22 on the hourly. 5 hourly on the floor as well.

The liquidity will build up as more buys come in for Tullow. Oil is above 54.1as I write.