Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

No early moves in the bond markets which have recovered all previous losses that arose during the week.

It has taken a breather as Saudi and Russia have the common sense to decide everything on 6th March. They will know if Libya is coming back on line or remains off as OPEC has effectively switched off 70% of the forecast growth already. My bet is they extend what they agreed on before to end of June. Supply and demand overall remains broadly equal.

The company is working on this right now. The assets for sale are 1/7 or 1/6 of the entire company. Discussions are on-going between Total and Uganda government. A go ahead escalates the value of Tullow by 230 2C towards 230 2P. That impact is massive on the company value. Its like having a new TEN field coming on line. It equates to around half the company debt being rolled over.

The tullow bond chart looks company specific and has behaved so since 9 December from what I can see.

As an aside the coronavirus is behaving more like seasonal flu yet the media are having a field day.
Oil went up 7 or 8 days in a row is having a break. Gee whizz it can easily go up next week.

I will see what they do today. Huge confidence yesterday. It suggests Tullow out performance and a lot of progress being quietly achieved.

Shares can be valued from many aspects but one method is to multiply resources by $30 an ounce and reserves by $100 and in some case $140 for those on low AISC and minus debts. If you do this for Shanta the figure is 12.5p which suggests this is a base case price. Any venture below this level suggests the share is under valued and strong buy on the basis of the gold it has available to mine now and in the future.

When gold rises as it does now, more attention is given to production and whether a company wants to extract difficult ounces to mine when gold is priced highly or do they high grade to take advantage of the higher gold price on offer. A well managed mining plan considers longevity and will extract higher cost AISC ounces and leave some good parts of the mine plan available if and when a future down turn happens. We can only know months from now what strategy Shanta chose to do as it would be revealed in the total ounces mined. I am hoping they will give a lot of insight on this view. I also hope they will discuss more on the type of gold they mine as oxide or sulphide content, whether its in quartz or other types of rock so that we get an idea of the cost and ease of processing. I hope the geologist in the team can put on a presentation later in the year that covers the Kenya acquisition after the government approvals have been finalised.

Thank goodness we have a tailwind. 1.28x handle with USD and finally going down to the euro.

Shanta will be around for a long time. They have plenty of resources and reserves. The earlier hedge has 40,000 ounces and debts of $20M. future finances are very strong. Its a well run company.

Just bought 25,000 shares in Shanta. Having a million Kenya ounces in the future is not a bad thing. I suspect additional exploration in that area may find more ounces.

Its great not having to read betrayed comments.

Finally they are moving back up and its a good omen here today.

Maybe the broker knows the wifey and wants to keep all his fingers.

What we do know is that coronavirus is behaving more like the usual influenza virus. The initial wave of infection from animal to human was far more toxic than human to human spread.

We also know the Kenya blocks are up for sale, and recently the bank managing this has seen its own stock value rise. Modelling a sale of this asset or part of it de-risks the company on many fronts. We also know the gas flaring of the Ghana field stabilises the oil reservoirs and ensures the 75,000 barrel targets and removes/lowers a risk of a negative surprise. We know a major equity holder is confident about what the company is doing. We also know the company is maintain profitability and cost cutting.

https://phys.org/news/2019-09-catalyst-outshines-platinum-hydrogen.html

Can they find the catalyst material mentioned above somewhere near their mines.

I am a buyer below 171p and probably not alone. Great if it stays up. Holding cash for companies that have smart people working for them.

The share is priced in sterling. Bad PMIs can lead to lower currency value and sometimes higher share prices in FTSE stocks.

God it better go up!

For quite awhile we have lost every battle in the campaign. Capara was like our Dunkirk. We now have in planning our major operation on 12 March. The troops are getting briefed on all their tasks. The SAD tanks have amassed in large numbers to give us support. The shorters are long way from their supply lines. It will not be long now we shall have our victory.

What is the probability that in the meeting with Total, ECO and Tullow, that Total says to Tullow 3 wells will be drilled and here is our offer to buy a higher stake in the entire block so you can now get on with it.

It will be the next RNS which says 20% of the larger owned Tullow Guyana block has been sold for x million on the understanding that it funds 3 wells being drilled in the next 18 months as Total takes a larger stake in the project. ECO is particularly happy about the arrangement.