Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/chinas-dominance-of-rare-earth-metals-has-left-britain-strategically-vulnerable

Everyone is in different circumstances. Someone on a 30% free carry engineered by past trading with only 2% of their portfolio on HZM will feel differently to someone with 30% of the portfolio on HZM and holding very little spare cash. Today is a reflection of portfolio adjustments some people will be taking.

Well said Miss Dollar. Unfortunately we have just lost another support line, but it will come back up. Its amazing how inflation gets forgotten and the FED acting as a Cabal gets forgiven. All the problems that were there two weeks ago have not gone away. In fact they are getting worse.

On Facebook the report has been submitted to Pensana. So the Saltend report is done and this allows environmental applications to be submitted by end of year. Hopefully they can still hit the December deadline on submissions for approval. Its the first tick on my list done.

What now?

CD

If they just approved what the audited amount was for repayment and it was off set on tax take over future years it would have the same result. Getting some VAT back as the mine gets built would help. I am staying with Shanta for the long term as the entire asset base for a 100,000 ounce company looks really solid for a small company like this. I genuinely think this is the best UK listed junior gold miner on production profile.

Needs to hold 1335. This is a seasonal low for gold washing through. I suspect its not far from the bottom in UK currency it was £1335 an ounce and at £1300 and under there is high volume buying of physical gold. We retreated from £1400 in just a few sessions. I have not seen an RSI of 16 on gold for the 5 hourly chart in a long time. It will soon be heavily oversold.

Luke happy to be declared as being pessimistic.

I will hold what I have tomorrow and keep long term. For what its worth a team creating a company like this do get around 8%. Without them there is nothing and they have worked on this for years. We all have a percentage of something as an investor here. I also believe enough shares will be around as a few will sell to put money elsewhere and this will transfer shares to longer term holders PIs who want them. Tony

Tomorrow morning it may gap down to 7.5p as some principles acquires their shares. Hopefully they will then hold them. For us small investor who might have something like 10k in HZM, the best thing to do I guess is enjoy the ride to production and see if $3.5B cash flow becomes reality. If it does the exit return is at least 15p and so we could see a 100% raise in our investment providing they build the mine with limited issues with all other risks and dilution are taken into account. So anyone happy to leave for 3 to 4 years gets say a 25% average annual return when the company hits production. If I am reading this completely wrong please correct me.

On the Centamin board I put recent past seasonal lows on gold for November and December.

The company in October has $20M in the bank and the enterprise value now is $136M. This equates to a forward earnings at $1700 gold price of 3.75 PE. If the VAT refund audit was completed and the company got most of it, the forward PE rate is 3.0. Where on earth can you get a forward earnings PE rate of just 3. The peer group rate on current earnings are all bunched on 7 to 8 PE rates on current earnings with the average USA SP500 rate over 50 PE. Its more than an unloved sector.

If the VAT refund arrived and paid for the new mine in its entirety on the Capex, the company value should increase by $73M on the balance sheet. This equates to 5.2p. I disagree with what the Colonel wrote the other day although it makes sense if the gold price was in a bear market again. I find that hard to believe as cheap gold would pull in a lot of buyers for it and the gold paper ratio to physical gold stored against it is already above 200:1.

3 November 2008
11 November 2014
14 November 2018
23 November 2015
30 November 2020
12 December 2019
13 December 2017
13 December 2016
14 December 2007
29 December 2011
31 December 2013

We are just going through a seasonal low. This is when I think the jewellery trade buys it gold stocks, West markets for Christmas, China for its January/Feb New Year. Occasionally as in 2009 and 2010 there was none as the opportunity to buy was attractive in Sept/October.

Shanta now performing just 2% less than Polymetal over the past 12 months.

Those assay results were expected any day now.

Polymetal either holds and the share heads up (which I hope for) or it breaks. Fortunately I took a 1/3 off at 1490 on my never waste a rally just in case rule applied on precious metal miners.

China,

I was commenting on gaps below the chart. Thank you for correcting me on all the gaps above us and hopefully one day in the future they will get closed longer term. I am talking about any gaps left behind us that usually get dealt with quickly and are short term. So no denials about those breakaway down gaps on long term targets list and I assume they were not on RNS days. What was unique is it was the first one ever behind us without an RNS. Its the one's behind us that concern most of us. Tony

GaisKidney and China

What I wrote earlier was based on UT (uncrossing trade) end of day close and open prices. It was not based on bid or offer and the chart works on UT end of day trades and opening UT. They are meaningless if it was say the difference between 82.8 and 83.1p and that was reference to a past discussion with China I had as the charts do ignore small fractional gap percentages of that kind. (It doesn't happen on Pensana, but happens all the time on Fresnillo which is currency affected).

The gap today was the first without an RNS in the history of the Pensana London listing. If the gap remains after 2 more trading days, it may only get filled a long time in the future. Whatever one thinks about it, today was an unusual set up. If it goes up tomorrow it is a breakaway gap especially if it breaks through the down channel resistance which is in the 92-94p area from memory. If Pensana gets out of the down channel then all bets are off on a retreat and it has attracted support to do what it is doing. If it does not get through then all we have seen is a lower high in the current trend and it goes back to 83p area and the gap closes. I will share additional chart data evidence as and when I believe a bottom is in if that happens.

The fundamentalists are looking at the clues given on the AGM and a job advert. I have to admit this is typical of PA to provide the clues and leaving folks to work it all out. It is part of his character to do this and we have seen it several times before. Its a game of do you trust me or not and how bright are you from the clues given. For added fun we get the weekly update to see where different nominee groups have moved up or down in share holdings.

All the best to you two and all the other readers out there, The chartists will like my bits and fundamentalists will like your contributions and that is what makes it a good board to visit. As we look at different things and share them with each other.
regards
Tony

In the bowl of suffering of all precious gold miners, Shanta has outperformed Hummingbird resources and Greatland Gold. Shanta was level pegging with the likes of Centamin and Polymetal throughout 2021 up to 8 November close. Shanta has underperformed since then although CEY and Poly have done quite a job in pulling back closer today to be just a few percentage points behind. The best performer is AAZ and that is probably as it is to be more of a copper miner than gold miner at some future date and copper prices held up.

Various methods give Shanta a book value of 11.9p. It then becomes an issue whether it should as a proportion of book or 1.X times book value. I had the stock as a growth company in future years at 1.4 times book which gave the placing price around 16.5p. The short term issue is getting owed VAT repayments to enable on-going new mine build. As for being a fraction of book it would imply gold going down into a bear market.

A relatively small buy on a large holding. Suggests a message being sent to existing holders that we might get some good news soon.

China

I have gone through every day since listed on LSE
Two gaps were on the chart at 22 to 22.9 and was down two RNS releases on consecutive days. On 11 September to 14 September (Monday) 2020 was a 46.5 to 49p gap arising on the RNS on resources. Today is a first if the chart gap remains and we have no RNS release this afternoon. It can happen and all I am giving is a cautious fact. A handful of buyers have jumped in this morning and hopefully they do not end in a bull trap and Pensana does rally. If it doesn't and the gap ends up getting filled, give me some credit for alerting folks to the possibility. Tony