Member Info for Tornadotony

10% of all Covid-19 admissions are children under the age of 5 in SA, a group that is untested for Covid vaccinations and not vaccinated. The paediatric units are under stress and the conditions are not mild for this group. If it gets into other countries in the coming weeks it is likely to be a serious problem. No data yet on the fatality rate in the under 5yrs. Not a good time to hold airline stock.

DP

Virtually everything is shut in SA, Australia and UK after the 23rd. Lets cut the difference and call the deadline as 22nd December which for some is the end of year work wise. Sitting on it for a 31 December RNS just doesn't happen. I still feel they should get the PEA done as fast as possible before omicron causes delays.

Should have said all the other assets outside Egypt were valued at zero.

Centamin is utterly bombed out on zero monthly slow stochastics. Still trying to deliver a higher low above the last retreat. 16.5 p of the share price is actually cash they have in the bank minus net earnings in the current quarter. So another penny and half could be added. $50M solar farm does have a long term value. 12 years supply of gold above 400,000 ounces also has a value in the ground of $450M plus equalling 35p per share (To be added to next week). Trading at 40p per share as a producer (2.14 x in the ground value) which should be at least 3 times in the ground price which totals 121.5p with cash in bank.

PEA was due early December. Should arrive next week.

Sundrum

Some people on here do not know that technology has moved on in windfarms and that an EV market needing NdPr magnets exists. Instead they actually believe that China will come back and resupply the whole global market again with cheap prices and carry on making their country a horrible cesspit. China will even supply NATO the NdPr magnets they need to maintain a naval and armed force presence in the Pacific Ocean to boot apparently. They believe that the public everywhere will accept the unreliability and performance of iron magnets. They believe every rare earth that you may need can be derived from a local sandpit somewhere and again at dirt cheap prices and with its immaculate ESG apparently. They also follow Chinese propaganda sheets out of Singapore paraded as informative and stay loyal to the regime. At least Pensana has a programme that incidentally supports women instead having them silenced for reporting assault conducted by a Chinese political figure. The list goes on and on and the problem is that you can't help the stupid, you really can't there is no hope for them as they will carry on putting their own or copied other people's propaganda and illiterate drivel.

our instead of are in line 3
has instead of as in line 5 para 2.

Steve

Lost track of J Powell and his BS. One minute the FED is independent and the next its a lap dog to the politicians with no independence at all. One minute it is a service to the public and then we discover its a self serving cabal. The stock market feigns FED superiority when it suits and says we will do it are way regardless the next when they feel the FED is not listening to wall street over its main street rival.

It comes down to one point of view that we each hold and it may be different amongst us and that is whether you want to hold gold or a proxy such as gold miner equity stock, do you want to hold dollar bills or finally would you hold property, bitcoin or anything of value that is not FIAT and nor is it ultimately controlled by the FED and its masters. Of course many follow the piper drumming up the SP500 above mount Everest levels. Its an absolute joke if the FED thinks it as any kind of handle on inflation. Its like the Wizard of Oz and the phoney operator behind the curtain pulling different levers and no they can't get you back home just like they have a fat chance of stuffing inflation back into the bottle. All the best Tony

I bought at 92.78 and around 93.5p but it was usual top ups. God knows what they are doing but I am hoping today is the seasonal bottom.

Another issue to bear in mind is a conflict anywhere on the globe that requires USA intervention for any prolonged length of time Indeed the withdrawal from Afghanistan was essential in order for USA to have any hope of expending on its infrastructure. So any efforts around Taiwan, Ukraine that would enlist USA expenditure are probably not on the cards. In fact USA might be able to handle a Grenada like event with a quick conclusion ran more like a military exercise. The cost of any conflict would mean the default rate would be under 2% or serious cuts in other USA expenditure.

In theory, USA debt at $29 trillion dollars has an interest charge of $418B per annum. This equates to 58% of the entire Defence budget that maintains USA status. For a 1% interest hike $290B of added interest goes on the bill. At 3% interest charges are amongst the highest cost in the entire USA budget surpassing Social security and so forth at $1.28 trillion per year. At 5% the USA would probably be unable to service its debt and the value of the dollar defaults.

As inflation increases and if wages do not keep up to pay higher taxes the debt accelerates further as the revenue shrinks as public sector costs rise. So the model projections on interest rate hikes would need to be lower and a default event in these circumstances is probably at 3.5% interest. The dollar today is appreciating against gold when we have an economic risk event such as omicron generating a new wave of Covid. This could drive up future debt ratios even higher as more private sector income generating services take another hit. Consequently today's drop in gold price is utterly perverse. Additionally what is the time scale before inflation falls below 3.5% as only at that point gold has a positive interest rate working against it. I personally doubt if interest rates will fall to that level in 2022. In fact so many future costs are baked into the pie already.

92.X is a higher low in the daily chart. The monthly slow stochastics is just above zero. This looks like another bombed out gold miner stock.

The first thing coming down the pipe is that it is far more transmissible than the delta variant. Hospitalisations in South Africa are starting to move up. Omicron is more problematic in children compared to previous Covid-19 variants.

Its starting to look really bad in South Africa. Omicron (the moronic covid) is spreading fast with a lot of hospitalisations. Good job I ordered in a crate of wine. It might be a good idea to celebrate Christmas this weekend rather than in 3 weeks time.

https://www.amvestcapital.com/webinar-directory/pensana111721

1. The FEED package has 121 equipment packages to sign off. 60 have been completed to date and over the coming weeks the remainder will be finished. As an approximate total cost of production the output from Angola as Cerium depleted sulphate mix with no thorium or other radionuclides is $30,000 per tonne approx and the Saltend cost will add $10,000 per tonne to deliver an NdPr oxide final product cost of $40,000 approx. (The cost to buy today is $130,000 so over a period of time there is a probably a margin to pay back debt and generate profits).
2. It was confirmed that a patent on the sulphate process was being processed with the purpose of protecting the interests of the company.
3. At least two other mines outside of Angola are looking to supply compatible feedstock that has no radionuclides in future years to Saltend.
4. The permanent tailings facility and separation of radionuclides was discussed and all takes place in Angola and it is suitable for 20 years of mine production.
5. It was confirmed that the only revenue tax on Angola mining was the 2% Royalties. The rate of corporation tax was 25%.
6. AWF was open to contribute to the remaining $250M debt outside of the $250M bond arrangement.
7. The UK Treasury has accepted all the responses given by the company on the ATF grant application. They await a final decision from the UK Government.
8. Bond funders have suggested that an ATF grant can ease the provision of $250M in bond financing.
9. The company has the benefits as a Freeport plus allowances for depreciation of assets and business rates thus far along with no import or export taxes at Saltend.
10. So far there are no off take arrangements, but these are to be worked on to satisfy likely future bond requirements.
11. The remaining $250M may be served by multiple means and the favoured approach is bank debt facilities.
12. JORC requirements for reserves and resources to support the funding package are being worked on. Ground is being broken in Angola with hydrology and foundation works at the present time. (We know Saltend has recently completed their hydrology geo-foundation works).
13. It was likely that Pensana will have an OCT market listing in the United States. This may progress further depending on USA investor demand. Two USA investment sources were currently heavily buying Pensana shares.

Overall good questions were asked of Pensana and it was clear that a raft of news was forthcoming with some arriving this month.

Hope the above is helpful, but you may want to listen to the webinar yourselves. It was an upbeat discussion.

Tony

Quietly adding. If it went down to 93p, I would be doing a whole hog and going super overweight on Centamin.

Probably sending message to Burundi Government and the antics going on there.

Chart gap at 13.25 to 13.5p which I hope will soon close.

The contrarian contradiction.

So a large company buying at 7p will want to de-risk their investment in HZM. How do they do this.

1. They pump the price higher is the easiest and gradually take some off the table and share risk with other entities.
2. They open a massive short on the share and crash the price of their own investment, buy it back cheaper and possibly average it down a bit and dump the stock as it moves above their average.

1 option is the natural curve of how stock prices move on stocks like HZM after a placing of this size. 2 option is possible, but the short position is highly visible and other entities could short squeeze that position. In fact all the other funding entities would need to join in as they would see one funder stealing their breakfast and lunch sort of speak. Furthermore some of the funding bodies are on the company board and shorting the price hardly goes down well as they sit and hear progress on build and bet that it gets messed up rather than advising on how to prevent adverse issues.

I therefore understand all the concerns raised, but investment sentiment does not always operate as suggested in the article. I do agree that HZM is in a trading range for the next 8 weeks or so as things settle down.

Tony

Another background issue that I have raised before is that ripping off private investors supporting climate change stocks attracts a lot of adverse publicity. It will be used to site institutional bias against the climate change agenda and that kick back can become quite aggressive and should not be underestimated. HZM has a tail wind of support out there.

1. Monthly chart has fallen six months in a row and has never occurred before in the history of AAZ.
2. Monthly chart is on long term support line.
3. Weekly chart has hit 2020 war time lows and is on the support line.
4. Weekly chart down channel is at the bottom of its range with 114p being the top of a downward channel.
5. 5 Hourly chart is currently trying to deliver a bottom chart formation for AAZ.

The stock is utterly bombed out on a low with weekly slow stochastics on zero. RSI is just reading above oversold levels slow stochastics across the board at low readings. If this was a horse it was taken out and shot. The company pays a divi near inflation rate and it has an on-going mine life forecast of 8.5 years with steady production performance.