RE: Xi think China’s lost it7 Nov 2022 11:49
Pensana is effectively run by a guy with a shocking track record. Everybody who has backed PA has been wiped out.
We have gone over the 3 previous incidents to death. Reminding folks on the last 2 before Pensana. A company could not survive the competitive onslaught of USA shale gas that collapsed the oil price in 2014. The competitors in USA also went bust later in huge numbers as they high graded the exploitation of gas fracking wells in various fields. The banks who supported them took huge losses. The actions of the gas Frackers selling below true cost destroyed many small oil producers that year as their cost were above $70 a barrel which was fine when the price over several years had been above $100 a barrel. Somehow you want to blame it all on PA who did get some money out for all the shareholders. The third company engaged in delivering a Uranium mine in Spain is still operational today and shareholders did not get wiped out. The project was delayed for years as a result of local people and local politicians not supporting the development and PA chose to go to Pensana that has much improved local support around a mine development in Angola. He left because Pensana was a better opportunity that was more likely to have wider stakeholder support.
We have had Great Wall,
The company decided to move away from China financing as it was clear that China was having difficulties with the West in the rare earth supply market. You forget to mention the threats Xi made in 2020.
The Norwegians, the Green Bond, the ATF farce,
The Norwegians may well have the workings of a bond in place which required all the FEED work and evidence for a green bond. The rules changed on what was climate protection qualified in September 2021 and the company had to respect those changes. The ATF awarded a research grant probably at £4M to undertake development work from NdPr oxides to magnet development which in turn required moving from Saltend 1 to Saltend 2 application and also, they anticipated in advance that China would maintain the price of magnets but undercut on ore prices in a similar manner to Frackers who went bust in 2014. In other words, Pensana developed a defensive strategy based upon market manipulation as seen by the Directors and Chairman in the past.
the stuffed up placements--- Hardly, they have enabled cash flow through a lot of work activity and it is not dissimilar to other companies working through a route to market.
the Feed debacle- The Chairman and a few others underestimated the huge amount of work involved, however it delivered cost savings that equated to inflationary pressures up to April 2022.
The current delays in financing- Pensana cannot control the banks when the entire bond financing market is shut. It is however being worked through as a pipeline project and the timing of when financing arises on projects that emerging is probably in a queue of sorts.
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