Member Info for Tornadotony

Hopefully now settling down for the next rally.

They will be all of it along with Odey and others.

Hot money leaving and shangdong laughing there heads off.

Jonathan Leslie bought 560,000 shares at 17.75p on 15th April 2013. He acquired some 13,144,088 shares when the average market price was 22p in preceding years. It is quite likely that Jonathan Leslie holdings in Shanta was broadly around 12.5p or not that far away from it if he averaged down when the share price was quite low. I therefore think it is likely that recent sells were not generating significant profits for him but releasing cash tied up in the company for the past 9 or 10 years.

Another factor is that we have some fairly significant shareholders in the company and would not put up with insider mis-behaviour without serious complaint bringing investigations. Everything is transparent and open to us. It is not like Hummingbird Resources gold miner who were subject to a Panorama investigations concerning in laws share dealings in the stock.

The meeting of analysts with Eric would also not be one way traffic. Those representing other major shareholders which they act as a broker for would also expect assurances that this bidding process was by the book. Eric himself is also a shareholder of the company and he is probably sitting on his hands with his own investment, and he advised many others to do the same through the first RNS on the bid process.
Overall, the risks are the gold price, whatever Tanzania and Kenya governments do in future and all the mining risks that the company endures. We also know any bidder as a buyer has the right to walk away. I therefore give the Leslie family the benefit of any doubts especially if I was in a similar position to Jonathan Leslie myself. For all we know, he may have plans to fund some activity that is really important to him at this time and needed to release his resources. He does not appear to be a person to do harm to others and that includes his son's reputation. Tony

Stanley you were on the adult beverage juice this morning. Some of us would be over the moon to see 95p.

Inevitable as so many escaping Russians have bought the most expensive car they could find and then drove to Finland, Latvia, or any other country where they could get across the border and then sell it. Once that market dries up there is nobody left in Russia to buy them. Riga was full of expensive cars when I was last over there.

Dogstar and other readers,

I was looking at Luke Leslie picture and those of Jonathan Leslie and I would say he is probable the father living in a £12.6M pad in Chelsea (he bought it for 2.39M in 1997). Let us see if he sells any more shares now that he has a hedge. I still believe the company is worth more much more than 12.5p a share. The concern some people have is the gold price in 2023.
The question I ask myself is how all the governments with over 100% debt to GDP ratios like devaluation of assets and no growth and find the means to deliver balanced budgets with severe cuts. They need fusion energy or something similar to make a massive scientific breakthrough and make some giant leap of productivity. Sovereign debt crisis is not fun with a string of rolling defaults. I feel a pivot coming on with the same old formulae being used and gold to correct to its proper value again. In the UK gold is starting to look cheap again unless they collapse the price of everything else. Tony

Tell us more dogstar. How is it a big red flag. If I had 26M Shanta shares at a huge profit already, I may well take 20% off the table myself. I then have cash to rebuy back if a deal did not go through. The fact is J Leslie still has over 20M.

I suppose the smell is every fart will be called a shangdong if they walk away or a shangdong bottom secret (instead of top secret).

Jonathan Leslie has quite a long career and is 72 yrs ex Rio Tinto, Sibanye and many other companies. Probably bought the stock at 4p so for all we know he may have wanted the funds for personal reasons, and they off set an earlier big buyer.

The whole process with Cardinal with two companies bidding took 7 months to resolve. The situation here is probably one bidder trying to satisfy the 48% mega holders of the stock. Those holders will know what Shanta is worth far more than anyone of us can work out. The best we can do is leave it in the bottom draw and be patient. The divi benefit is that we get something for doing nothing but hold the stock.

For Cardinal it was 18 days for a bid to go in from Shangdong. I added around 75,000 at 12.20 area. At least there is a good chance of selling it a bit higher next year.

MoF2 no in that a minister would probably not sign off applications.

An alternative is that Pensana were told an Environmental Permit was not necessary after all the information in the planning approval and they have not told us.

I cannot see Eric recommending any bids that are sent over. Hence the pullback in price. Nothing has happened after one week and I suspect a lot of time wasters will clear off on 15 November. At least the new mine is 78% constructed. We have a few punting the sky on what bid prices could be received. If you think gold goes to $5000 an ounce, they may be correct, but the production cost would be nothing near what was quoted in today's RNS. Unless the maths goes with the valuation it is a wasted guess.

The only Environmental permits issued this year was for Saltend Cogeneration Plant on 18 March and Vivergo Fuels Ltd at Saltend on 24 April this year. No evidence of Pensana having Environmental approval to construct at Saltend although data entries stop on 30 September 2022 on the Government website.

Rareearther

I still have all of my core holding Pensana that I have held all year. I do not have to do anything. The overweight at 44p bought was sold at 69p so I do have it as a backup on a retreat for a rebuy. I also may need the cash if there is a placing as the company got approval to do it. Tony

Not all companies hit their production targets.

I will be pleased when finance arrives and what the terms look like, and they are reasonable. This is the reverse way of commencing a project to spend what cash you have and waiting for the funds to continue.

They appear more confident it will come through in the next 9 weeks after discussions and communications with environmental ESG staff. They need a higher gold and silver price for sure. The pullback in precious metal prices cost them $10M. The permit is worth 800,000 ounces of gold in future years production and adds 3 years mine life.

False markets must not be created in the securities of the target company, of the bidder or of any other company concerned by the bid in such a way that the rise or fall of the prices of the securities becomes artificial and the normal functioning of the markets is distorted.

The above is probably going to be discussed in quite some detail so that analysts on both buy and sell sides do not break the rules. Eric will probably remind them of the code and what the above all means.

Chinese response

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277916.shtml