Member Info for Tornadotony

Newlands sold 275,000 1.8% of the holding and bought back 45% of it yesterday. I wonder if Jonathan Leslie fancies a buyback of sorts.

I see HZM being like Fresnillo in 2008 and 2010. The deflation will end up be followed with reflation as governments will go bust with debt if they don't and drown in their interest payments. 40 years from now everything will have another zero after it until they come out with the new FIAT and like HZM do a 1/20 to hide some inflation and confuse the stupid or mathematically challenged. For those of us that have HZM as 4% in the portfolio it will be kept away for 5 years as we do a Warren Buffet style long term hold. The world will need another nickel miner in two years' time as any recession stops exploration and investment elsewhere. All the best Tony

In the RNS we have this statement.
The data for XarXar and Garadagh have been received from Azergold, following the acquisition of these new contract areas. Data validation in relation to both deposits is ongoing. I look forward to reporting on these new contract areas later in the year.

Once they know what the targets are and can see a logical plan of exploitation, they can deliver their strategy to us. They describe Zafar as a bridge in the interim period. So let assume they need 4 years as worse case to be a mid-tier copper producer. Zafar will deliver say 12,000 ounces of gold a year as worse case. They are also likely to deliver double the copper out mainly from Zafa per annum . This equates to 18,000 GEOs per annum and delivering 30,000 GEOs a year for 4 years.

Gilar will deliver its new resources by end of year and we only have sample test results from Vejnaly. If we take a worse case spread over 4 years of having both these assets delivering 5,000 GEOs per annum it takes us to Gedebek contributing its final 4 years of production. Gedabek is currently operating at 14,000 GEOs ounces per quarter and declining. It is possible that they can hit 40,000 GEOs per annum over the following 4 years so the GEO totals may approach 75,000.

The next issue is how much are they spending in the America's and how much on the new copper targets at home base. I suspect they will need $250M and say half is a loan and the remainder is partly funded each year from profits and a year before a huge Capex they raise some shares or institutional buyers for the remainder of the money. Once the new copper mines come online say in 2026 the company earnings will be 100% higher than today and the mine Capex is paid off by 2030. Of course, management have not confirmed anything I have said and leave it all to our guesswork. Tony

Islandgirl

We do not know for sure if he made other trades over the past 8 years but we do know he acquired around 6M. In my previous I took an average of just 3p for all those shares and if you average it against 17p placing, 17.75 buys and i believe the notes were bought back between 10.5p to 11p for a total over 22M you come up with an average say between 12-12.5p around where he sold them. Ketan shares which total 44M average price is between 20-21p. I cannot see Ketan Patel accepting a loss on his stake. I therefore am staying with my 20-22p offer price if Shangdong really want the asset. The divis have only been going for the last two years.

Shanta was listed 11th Jul 2005 with just 17M shares at 25p.
Ketan Patel held 10,406,256 shares at 20p. Mahesh Patel had similar, and they both bought another 5M each at 30p on 8th August 2006.

The share registry was 333,838,611 on 16 October 2012. Jonathan Leslie was appointed 17 October 2012. A massive placing took place for 17p and the share registry 461,827,467. Ketan took just under 11m shares at 17p and his total became similar to what he holds today. (Makesh I presume had passed away between 2006 and 2012 and there was huge gap in activity in that time frame.) Luke Leslie joined the company on 5 November 2012 shortly after his father.

It appears Jonathan Leslie held huge volumes of loan notes early on and we know after the placing he was holding 13,144,088 shares after acquiring 560,000 shares at 17.75p. There is no record of him being given shares or paying for them, but I think it can be assumed they were all around 17p. On 19th September 2013 a lot of loan notes held by J Leslie get exercised as shares and he acquires 900,000 shares on 13th December for 11.10p. On 24 February 2014 we have his last known transaction of loan notes giving him the 22M or so he holds today. I suspect all the loan notes were exchanged for shares around 10.8p average. If J Leslie bought 6M share say at 3p his average overall would have been 12p. I therefore believe Jonathan Leslie made very little profit in his disposal. The vast majority of his holding has been inactive for 8 years. Tony

Manage to add more at 10.09 this morning.

ProphetWarning,

I think most of us knew from the off this is all about Shangdong buying Shanta or not. Shanta does not have to sell out. For all we know Shangdong may say they want to partner with Shanta on WK instead. Shangdong have been thinking about acquiring Shanta for months. The other two jumped on board late in the game and so Shanta put the message out there. Today Xi meets Hassan and mining is on the agenda along with port development and so forth. I would not be surprised if we hear something from Shangdong next week. Tony

The shipping news confirms the truth. Shipping volumes and rates are falling sharply (Maersk). The global recession has arrived whatever USA stats on growth are. If the FED stays aggressive, what is now an ordinary recession that is certainly arriving becomes far deeper and longer. We shall see what they FED have to say later on.

It is amazing RNS considering the circumstances.

The advantage of say a half a tonne of material at 50 g/t of gold is that when mixed with lower grade ore at Gedabek it serves as feed for higher production grades. 25g/t at 1 tonne is 0.250g/t at 100 tonnes or 0.05 g/t added on quarterly production (+7%). If they have more outcrops of that kind of resource adding further tonnage, then Gedabek production could be stabilised.

It is all on the Shanta website if anyone wants to read and be informed. New Luika as we all know comes on stream in January. Eric has been depleting old mine stock for the last 15 months and using the pillar source to complete the run in. Luika and other nearby assets then deliver 5 years of gold ounces at a rate of 68,000 a year. Porcupine South is to be worked up and ounces into Luika as feed to underground stock. Singida already has around 7,000 plus ounces stripped out. Q1 is mainly commissioning the plant and finishing off stripping out ore for mine processing so that 21,000 ounces in stacked ore has been prepared. Singida has millions spent in advance with ore already dug out for the entire 2023 production year. Singida average production is around 32,000 ounces a year.

If I was to bet if the 56% shares held by institutions and insiders that is around 570M shares are being held and let us say 10M (mainly J Leslie) decided to hedge equates to 2% protection if things do not go right. If Publican chooses to make the 2% as a reason not to invest it is his choice. My choice is to hold a proportion of my portfolio in cash as my hedge already and stay invested with Shanta with the remaining 98% smart money. I think J Leslie will be one of the buyers that probably propels Shanta to 20p when that bid drops on the mat from Shangdong and he has the cash to get in front of Publican and others who will find it a struggle to buy anything as it unfolds.

The Henry Enfield character I remember was loads of money which reminded us that it does not buy intelligence or taste in anything for that matter.

Rich especially when they have just 22 posts and have an IQ to match. The reason we got a downwind on the SP on this day is because somebody decides to be sore loser after an election result and starts to disrupt normal transfer of power by not disowning the activity of road blockers and think its clever imitating Trump. The Brazilian Supreme Court are having none of it tonight and have authorised that the transfer of power by 1 January proceeds as normal to Lula. The Brazilian police are also very keen to uphold law and order and are not putting up with nonsense. Democracies are precious along with the freedoms that go with it, and I would bet many ordinary Russians wish they lived in Brazil at this time and a fair number of Chinese as well. Hopefully, things normalise in Brazil and HZM SP moves back up as well fairly soon. The return target short term is 90-91p. If the other side do not like Lula in a few years' time they can change the leader. The alternative is dictatorship and autocracy and when that arrives the people know what losing freedoms mean.

Contrarian,

The article was back in September and Lula has said the opposite since then of being supportive to the sector.

The entire nickel miner sector has fallen in share price by 24-25% in 2022. Anyone here can look at nickel ETFs and other nickel miners and the likes of their customer base such as Tesla and Ford and can see what is happening. Trying to stitch up this company specifically makes little sense. The gap in the chart you refer to was impacted by an RNS. It does not necessarily require back filling like you make out. If the nickel sector as a whole start to rally, so will HZM. If the sector continues downwards so does HZM. It is as simple as that but instead we have the pretence of you trying to be some guru to satisfy your ego on an LSE Board. I believe the definition of people who act like that is Charlatan.

Tony

For months Horizonte just followed nickel ETFs. On 3 October it shifted of course on the dilution. It then returned to its normal pattern of being linked in a similar pattern to the nickel ETF up to 25 October. It has now deviate and a correction back to 91 would realign it to the Barclays nickel ETF again. I noted the Bloomberg Nickel ETF dropped 8% last Friday and I believe it was heading back up again. The recent pull back is on quite low volumes and has been exaggerated with an absence of liquidity in the stock.

All I got was rain from the Shanta dance.

Time to do my new shangdong shanta dance.

Shanta is on the move with some volume.

Last chance for Publican.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3197985/tanzanias-hassan-makes-state-visit-china-projects-her-mind

Managed to get only 15,000 at 10.5p. Early orders not executed. Still a good average down in the ISA.

SP

This is a privately held company and is not listed on the market like Rainbow or Pensana. Hedge funds poured in $146M into British Volt back in May. Glencore is a minority shareholder. I therefore see the Government looking for others to step in although what they may do is apply Gateway procedures to decide if it is worth investing at this time. Looks like UK Government was getting pressurised and hence a quick rejection.