Member Info for Tornadotony

It will either hold or it won't, but it is the strongest support line.

It was looked into by several board members and no adverse impact was expected on HZM from the election result.

Something better to read for our readers out there.

https://www.adamasintel.com/ndpr-oxide-price-to-sail-higher/

Tony

Fox claims RMB yuan global trade is only 2%. The previous figures I gave were Chinese sources. The truth is probably in the middle.

In previous years the Chinese yuan accounted for 4% of all global transactions. During 2022 the volume of yuan global trade transactions has reached 7% despite many lockdowns. The gold demand in China is expected to increase in coming years which is partly increased jewellery demand but could also support backing yuan and increasing yuan use in global trade to a further extent. Gold miners such as Shangdong are being actively encouraged to acquire overseas gold mining assets. Some of this was discussed at mining conference on 26th September. It therefore appears Chinese gold miners have a green light to make acquisitions.

Error in the last sentence should be any Chinese bidders would be in the form of cash.....

Late in the evening mistake.

Chaarat is 45% owned by Martin Andersson who owns an offshore company Labro Instruments. Chaarat shares are currently suspended as they were in reverse takeover talks of acquiring Lydia Armenia that is TSX listed under a parent company owned mainly by Orion Mine Finance and Osisko Gold Royalties. The Lydian Armenia mine has experienced loads of problems mining their asset of 2,293,405 reserve ounces at lowish grades from local people for years. The Armenian economy is in difficulties, so the Government now support the mining to proceed. Lydian Armenia does not have the money to get started. The entire company has received around $400M expenditure so the proposed reverse takeover is unlikely to be cheap. In the past Andersson has worked with Russian organisations and it is probably fair to say he knows plenty of wealthy Russian contacts. Of course, a number of Russians have tried to move monies into the Chinese markets and that includes technology companies in particular. The problem they all have is that Covid-19 like lockdowns is recurring again in China and the Chinese market itself is not growing and generating much profit. Xi and his subordinates have a way of interfering on company boards which generally reduce profits on the whole.

It would not surprise me if monies that have migrated out of Russia that went into China stocks are getting fed up and looking for different homes. There is no way that I can see how Chaarat can do a reverse takeover itself with the likes of Orion and Osisko Gold on the other side of the table. So, a lot of money behind Chaarat might be coming from somewhere. Russia has close to links to Armenia and perhaps a low-grade mining company with likely high running costs may appeal to some investors. Shanta in comparison is a far better prospect and would cost less than the likely reverse takeover price of Lydia Armenia. It is like Shanta being offered 29p a share price minimum. The Chaarat literature has similar wording to what Shanta has used in that the deal to acquire Lydia Armenia mine asset may not go ahead of course. Labro Investments offshore accounts of course may have lots of money and that may be the real source behind the reverse takeover bid. The Chinese bidders have of course made cash offers and that may have complicated what Chaarat or its principal owners may do. Tony

Chart gap is 92.74 to 94.06. The gap is significant. At some point Centamin back fills the chart gap and has a near 100% record for doing so when not induced by an RNS. I therefore do not mind Centamin sliding down for awhile so that we can all add in lots of buy shares and await the gap to be back filled. I have written the gap event in the title. Tony

Space Gibbs it is always the case when hot money falls into a bear trap.
As for the price of a takeover, the only thing we have a handle is what we would accept ourselves as a bottom offer. It is difficult valuing the intangible elements of Shanta. What we also know is the company expended $35M on WK, its owed $23M in back taxes on VAT receipts, Singida has cost $39M to develop and of course all the drilling costs to remodel new Luika and repayment of a $20M loan. All those costs suggest $150M only gives the board expenditure back with no premium for all the work done. Hence why many of us suspect 20p as a minimum.

SP I believe that is the bigger raise, but they need a small one to get to that raise. Fortunately, the 3% I added I took off at 12.5p and so can go back up to 7% again later. I am relieved I made that move which was based on a general market concern than specifically with RBW. I can hardly believe the sell is down to 9.5p. Tony

In the H2 report it points out how extra ounces over the plan had been mined out with 83,000 at 8.4g/t becoming 102,000 g/t at 7.6 g/t. The issue of the ground stability has therefore returned the total gold extraction from the pillar to the original April summary. It appears all other major holders are doing nothing at this time except 1 that has attracted a lot of attention. The only comment that I would make is that a takeover can go on for 6 to 9 months. I would be concerned if other large investors were off loading and that is clearly not the case. Trader hot money is now mainly off the field.

https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/disclosure/disclosure-table

Publican

The guidance in the first RNS was very clear to do nothing, although many of us may have added slightly. It was made very clear that Shangdong were only having talks with the company which apparently took place months ago. It was emphasised that no bids may arise.

If there was to be bid, it is likely to emerge as part of a larger trade package between Tanzania and China. It also provides China with a trade discussion route with Kenya. Leslie or nobody else will know what Xi will do precisely in this matter. He can choose to give Shangdong a red finance card In January that buys Shanta outright. We all have to wait and see what happens.

Additionally, the gold price could stage a rally in the coming weeks back to 1850 to 1900.

It now makes sense to do it as part of commissioning and testing in 2024.

Shanta was following GDXJ very closely for months. GDXJ started to rise 4 days before the Shanta news which was flat at 9p. We of course had the drama and rose well above the GDXJ but also the GDXJ has been rising with GDX. The match up with the GDXJ chart as of last night would have been at 10.25p for Shanta (sell side). So hardly anything is on the price in relation to a future bid.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/liberum-capital-ltd/rns/form-8.5--ept-ri-/202210270853403225E/

I doubt Xi would put pressure on Shangdong to low ball Shanta. They want a good relationship to arise from the meeting. The Government owes $27M in VAT to Shanta. Shangdong took 18 days to submit a bid to Cardinal. With such a meeting taking place next week we could see an opening offer on the table the week after. It is a possibility at least.

1. Shanta have nothing to do with the Tanzania President visiting China next week.
2. Shanta did not instigate the press article in the Tanzania press on a potential bid. They had to RNS after it appeared.
3. Shangdong announced they wanted to invest in Tanzania in a spirit of inward investment in Tanzania and had a discussion with Shanta.

Shanta is not doing a pump and dump. They are just reacting to on-going events. What we have is day traders and downrampers playing on emotions of traders. This share will go back up again. Opportunities exist for new investors to take a position if they want to.

Euro may also rally against USD in coming weeks and gold rises in dollar terms.

Finds support.