Member Info for Tornadotony

CFO buy is probably a good sign. NdPr prices have been steadily rising back to $98,000 on SMM.

Not sure how the FED is modelling a 0.5% positive GDP in 2023. Q1 is looking to hit -2.5% GDP with another 0.25% or 0.5% rate hike. Inflation rate is also not going anywhere and if they do what they say they are going to do then GDP goes minus 5% into Q2. Equity prices would tank in that scenario. Crashing growth with inflation high is a stagflation last seen in the the 1970's. The key question today is whether the USA market believes in the FED or not. The initial reaction is not to fight the FED and let them make their huge mistake and destroy whatever fragments of confidence that remain. Hence why gold and CEY are down. We now await the degree of conviction State side. I

My opinion- I am not sure what to believe myself. The first domino to fall State side is the housing market like it did in 2007/08.

Another M2 picture
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2#:~:text=Money%20Supply%20M2%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged,of%20286.60%20USD%20Billion%20in%20January%20of%201959.

Courtesy of zero hedge. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-12-14/jpm-countries-see-cpi-exceed-5-it-takes-around-10-years-cpi-fall-back-2

Look at the the M2 graph.

Apparently shipping volumes of nickel have been far lower than expected. The market demand in China for nickel is on the low side of what they usually need, but the supply side has managed to fall lower than demand. The news came out this morning from import shipping data on rare earth metal website for NdPr prices. Tony

Is a Peruvian permit extension so that I can invest more in HOC which means investing more in Peru. Without it there is no future for the Peruvian workforce of this company.

Thanks for the summary sagacity.

Never a good idea to speculate on high future values. It calls the wolf to the door.

Junior gold miners have an average value of 3.8 times projected annual cash flow. This should imply Shanta Gold can reach 13p in 2023 as a new low area trading range and at least 18p in 2024. In addition the company is likely to pay 0.2p in dividends. Those buying the stock now have a probable 100% upside with 2.2% dividend on top. This assumes a gold price is an average annual $1790-$1800 per ounce sold. The cash flow is also based upon projected additional output production of gold ounces as the Singida mine commences operation from March 2023. Shanta gold also receives VAT back payments and these may increase cash flow to higher level where back dating includes what is historically owed.

The entire rare earth sector is tiny and being neglected of financial support. I suspect the architecture is deliberate to create future inflation waves in order to bail out central bankers and western governments that have engaged in QE practices and are in a mess. Rainbow rare earths is not a mining company. Everything it is processing is out of the ground,but it is not in the volumes that the future market will need. The market would require around 20 Rainbow rare earths. In fact just about every project that is running would need to succeed in order to keep NdPr and other REO prices being affordable.

What concerns me on the rare earth forums here on LSE is that folks ignore the value of attracting rare earth investors into this space. The constant negativity damages all rare earth stocks. Paul Atherley and George do the same thing in promoting the cause and both face similar hurdles of hedge funds and banks wanting a very greedy share of the pie that is well above any deal that is done in the oil sector. Our energies are far better utilised in pointing out that Western democracies need to get on supporting Rainbow Rare, Pensana, MKA and anything else not owned by the Chinese to deliver what we need to remain in a democratic society in future generations as well as potentially saving the planet from destroying itself with green house gases. So lets stop degrading these websites because someone is disappointed with a particular CEO or a company Chairman. We have to be clever ourselves in knowing when to go overweight on these stocks and when to top slice that overweight off and being really patient with core holdings. Tony

The company has more detail on the drilling data to support the economics of a new underground gold mine with some copper and zinc production at Gilar on its website The data gave us depth of drill holes and g/t characteristics. It is quite possible that the discovery is in excess of 100,000 ounces although we do not have rock density data and true width measurements to give a total tonnage volume. The company website does suggests an 80 metre or so width direction. So overall the find is greater than the gold content at Zafar. The company would probable find it economic to produce 20,000 ounces over 5 years as it is conveniently located after reducing ounces lost on mining recovery rates. $300 per ounce for a $30M mine investment with say $900 mining cost per ounce still gives a shared profit to the company of say $250 per ounce equating to $25M profit after tax and mine build. Lower grade ounces can be mined out with mine extension. Overall the find recovers mined out resources from Gedebek and helps the company progress with capital flows to get to higher copper production outputs from other resources.

The story here is quite complex as so many pockets of resources exist for the company to get to where it ultimately wants to achieve. The consistency of generating revenues above $100M a year look set to continue with an ability to continue paying some dividends. The company management need to get the strategy published. They have a great story to sell. In the meantime I believe the share price is undervalued and is a port in a recessionary storm about to hit deeply throughout Europe.

I suspect building large new copper mines would benefit from a bond on par with arrangements that Fresnillo undertake in its mine construction programmes. I am hoping to see the company recruit some new staff that support their growth ambitions. Tony

For those having a go at Publican you have a filter button. Otherwise the board is all about him and not Shanta Gold.

When searching through rare earth tweets on twitter I found myself ending up on this article.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-mulls-harder-line-on-china-new-deal-with-taiwan/

It is highly relevant to rare earths.

A top up this morning, will hopefully rerate soon.

In my case a 4p average down buy.

What we do know is that the company will increase the copper revenue from around $18M a year to around $33M so the flotation plant is easily recovered from future profits for that element alone, assuming Zafar online July 2023. Copper from the middle of next year will be 1/3 of all the company revenue if it can deliver $100M in total which. Zafar can deliver 6,000 ounce of gold in 2023 on a pro rata 12,000 ounce a year run-rate. Zafar therefore delivers a $10M revenue from Zafar alone and it is $20M the following year at 1700 gold price per ounce. The Gedabek gold target per annum is 30,000 ounces or 7,500 ounces per quarter for $100M total revenue. This is achievable at 0.3g / tonne for the open pit and 1 g/t for underground Gadir which is a 20% decline in mining rates for open pit and 40% for underground which is quite pessimistic. In this scenario GEOs remain constant at 58,000 but if the Gosha vein can add 6,000 ounces and if Gedabek holds without further declines in grade than the GEO production target in 2023 becomes 72,000 ounces. Gosha vein alone with declining grades elsewhere gives 66,000 GEOs again providing Zafar is producing in July 2023. If the new mine runs late and H2 is end of year than the company is in trouble and perhaps high-grade veins not used in the current year are a possible back stop to prevent any further drop in annual production. We do need the board to spell this all out and not have us guessing on what their annual targets are and operational target deadlines more focussed than sometime in H2. If they hit targets outlined the SP could be 140p and if they miss them, we could see 60p. This is a hopeless range to put on ordinary investors. Quite a few investors could live with 90-110p with divis maintained. We need the metrics to help elucidate the target tolerance ranges.

The problem I have is how much all of it will cost. We have no financial outlay about what the company is doing on this project. We need proper information not just piecemeal bits of what they are doing.

Interesting. Most other miners are flat.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/17055-peru-s-congress-accepts-corruption-charges-against-president-pedro-castillo

Hopefully he is not involved with HOC permit decision.