Member Info for Tornadotony

I find the attitude is that we get a big dividend so management can do whatever it wants. This approach has prevailed before. It eventually breeds arrogance, lack of transparency, complacency and that investors money held in the company can be taken for granted. Hence the sensitivity on poor communications, supplying vague data, low balling to meet targets that pay management well, poor decision making as scrutiny outside of the board is ignored. It is a cycle that long term holders and the in and out longer term investors are fully aware of. In the end this is a one show mine in one country that is in huge financial trouble. Having all the eggs in a Centamin basket does have risks. I would encourage more shareholders to be proactive with the board and keep asking questions. As for AISC it will go up because of inflation. $1250 x 16% Egyptian inflation rate is $1450 per ounce. The problem is will the inflation in Egypt get worse and can then go price go up to maintain margins. Tony

At least the Peruvian government have set a new deadline to resolve it. It does allow HOC to engage in local PR to demonstrate the positives of what they can deliver to local people, how the company operations to high environmental standards, is not engaging in bribery and will have a high degree of transparency and offer the values that Peru as a country is desperate to receive. I believe the company can get it passed the finishing line and get the permit. The concern is whether precious metal prices remain as a safe haven over the coming 18 months and the company can get through a growth phase which takes it back to where it was a few years ago. HoC is amongst my smallest holdings with a group of other companies.

(Good luck Sotolo, and the lesson for everyone is always hold back a lot of cash, which has value, and only use it to get you out of trouble so that you can exploit the opportunity when it arises. Try and build free carry on stocks through trading to support a later investment position as you learn more about the company and all the risks involved). Tony

https://www.reuters.com/world/azerbaijan-demands-karabakh-mine-access-condition-end-protests-blocking-road-2022-12-27/

Sp, In a similar position having dropped back from 7% to 4% in my portfolio with a build in free carry. What we need here is a sharing of expected information flow on an annual time line identifying what is in control of the company and what is not so we understand overrun on targets. Its the hook to attract new investors and allows chart traders to help build volume. Intending to keep a core RBW as like with so many rare earth miners someone will do takeover to get the rare earths. Tony

Thanks for posting Kingalf.

Polymetal has certainly held up since 21 November. I was expecting it to retreat back further and despite the odd retest it has stayed put and consolidated.

innovation not innovative in previous.

Its Aboolik from Armenia now wanting attention.

Everything I write on here is in the public domain. I read and research a great deal. You have no idea of what I know and do not know. However, AAZ do have a right to have access to a mine which is their legal property going back decades ago which they paid for. The rule of law and ownership has a value in any society unless you want to live in a cave. Without it there is no security and safety or freedom and a loss of innovative or to be productive. I am sure AAZ would have programmes to support the local community if they resumed mining at their property and they are not the kind of people who you think they are. I am sure they would ensure worker safety which certainly does not apply under illegal operations. If you run a society on theft it becomes chaos. If someone wants to argue about ownership there is an international court that can adjudicate on such matters. AAZ have chosen an international route to exchange views, but those ignoring the law choose not to. As a consequence access to other benefits get suspended. There is a sensible route to resolving such disputes and it involves negotiations.

SP
I presume you bought back some of your rainbow after selling it, so you mentioned on another forum.
Tony

A quick response.
The logic of presenting the feasibility study in a different way is possibly having a part 1 mine which finances part 2 phase perhaps in a similar way to the successful HZM capital raising. The approach is longer but more sustainable on mine life as they include more resources nearby for extraction in the mine plans. I therefore hope the feasibility plan delivers a longer mine life option. The fundamentals of 440,000 tonnes per year with the EBITDA proposed was entirely fundable if it were longer duration.

The second issue is that capital markets closed around May 2022 and did not re-open until around September. No mining projects have been getting support since they are labelled as light green for the remainder of the year. Rick Rule mentioned before Christmas that capital markets need to open up as trillions of dollars are just sitting on the side-lines as cash in portfolios doing nothing. They are awaiting what happens in February after another rate hike that may create a recession and pile up more cash awaiting projects to fund. Therefore have a small entry position on a project like Dunbas is a punt of something like a pivot arising from central banks that allows projects like it to aid energy transition receiving funds. The CEO not saying anything may also imply in the last presentation that he was advised by the bank not to disclose anything at all. Other companies in this situation are seeing the wisdom of doing this. In fact I thought the CEO was moving things in the direction that some of you were hoping for for ages. Tony

My estimates suggest that it is trading at in the ground prices and only taking into account nickel output from Disko. If all the other metals are included it should be higher than 5p. A good entry point and hopefully a huge amount of money sitting on the side-lines with financers is soon put to work. The company has delivered a huge amount of work to get it to this stage for submission to financial approval.

4.96 entry. Now 1% of my portfolio. John Meyer has tipped it for 2023. Another pre-financing miner with a lot of resources. If financing does come through this should take off. If projects like here do not get supported than meeting any defence needs or climate protection goals will be impossible. I will do a costing of what they have in the ground as a valuation although I suspect it is well above 5p a share.

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102050352/Prices-of-High-Grade-NPI-Stop-Falling-amid-the-Surging-NPI-Prices-and-the-Rebound-in-the-SS-Futures-Prices/

Possibly a temporary rise.

Requires gold at $3,000 an ounce. Costs at $1500 with production above 90,000 and a PE rate of 8 on earnings and WK proved up with 1M reserves and 1M resources at measured level.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Hi Mr Tibbs
Glad you are back as well and hopefully in good health. My recent concern on Centamin was having reserves and resources at $2,000 an ounce which adds to Dekker concerns. I have managed to de-risk on Centamin to a light weight holding. I am not that impressed with the quality of information flow from the company which is often late and sometimes vague. What is good is having a solar farm and hopefully to get energy from the grid. All the best for 2023 and a Merry Christmas to all our readers. Tony

All out. Not looking good.

Returned 14% profit.

20% holding off Shanta in the previous as I was running out of words. Jonathan Leslie still holds 80% of what he held before.

Numerous metrics are deployed to value gold mining stocks. However many are lumped into ETFs such as gdxj and others. When the ETFs decline as it has done so of late then all the junior miners linked by various means to it decline in stock price.

My own methods of valuing a company is first knowing how much gold they have in the ground which is economically to mine. A proven or probable reserve ounce in production is multiplied by $140. A proven or probable ounce reserve not in production is multiplied by $100. This metric is for African miners with an economic price to mine set at $1350 per ounce which I is used by Shanta. (This figure is well below other gold miners). Resources in production are correlated as 50% conversion to proven from measured and indicated so are $50 an ounce and not in production at high grade like in Kenya is $40 per ounce. Lower grade ounces in resources at M and I without a mine have an in the ground value of $30 per ounce. All inferred only ounces in resources are valued at $10 per ounce.

All of the above currently give after removing what was mined out this year as $61M for new Luika and $53M for Singida which totals $114M. West Kenya had 1.1M ounces only as inferred last year and that gives $125M and minus debt loans takes us back to $115M. However the up to date resources and inferred ounces is to be announced before 31 December. We already know the inferred category is up 1.5M ounces. We are also reliable informed that a significant amount of resource ounces will be identified. The current market price value is just $117M. If WK delivers 300,000 resource ounces the in ground valuation becomes. $127M and equate to 10.3p share price.

Of course miners trade above in the ground price. For Shanta this should be around 1.4 times and with a restored FCF this is 12.9p before WK RNS and afterwards should be 14.4p. The methodology on juniors using FCF metrics prior to its self financing most of Singida mine construction gave 13p. I therefore conclude Shanta is undervalued.

Finally I do not care if an ex Board member who is the father of the CFO took 20% off Shanta. We do not know his personal financial reasons at this time. He is well above pension age. It may have nothing to do with the company. Tony

To GreekLizard

Share volume is incredibly low, especially when we have a falling SP price. Sellers would be in a distressed position for other circumstances they may be facing. Weak hand speculators were probably farmed out ages ago in my opinion.

Theo- Not sure what you mean by absence of feedstock for Saltend. I was unaware of the Estonia or NEO plant being actually short of feedstock. The Estonia plant is being expanded to cope with demand. NEO of course liked the Pensana set up and now have a vertical link up with an Australian mine. I am fairly sure the AWF will want the full value from what is mined in Angola and will want both projects linked up. Once the company has LJ funding, a risk is removed from the Saltend project. I suspect the Saltend project may now involve some equity raise as a funder would insist on a contingency monies to guarantee completion of the project.

The 154p valuation I had on Pensana a long time ago is around 108p with the current share dilutions. Other costs arising probably have brought this down to 95p ceiling price. The metrics I have used compare reasonably with other valuations in the sector. The uncertainty of financing has depressed the stock price. It was not long ago the share price was 71p. HZM received a 100% rise as financing packages were put together and 600% from its lowest ever London listing price. Comparing with HZM also gives a 90-95p ceiling during early construction phases.

Eloro,
This is not a crypto Ponzi scheme and it is not an Elon Musk enterprise where somebody chose to waste profits generated in a commercial bubble on high tech in USA. The fact is LJ funding is near to hand and the mine could well go ahead in full construction in late Q1. It is likely, that other arrangements could be reworked in the coming weeks and the Saltend project starts a little later. Who is to say if a Japanese or USA bank steps in on Saltend and finances the project as they want a high percentage of NdPr supplies locked into their country for several years to fit with other domicile projects they are supporting as part of the deal instead of other types of conditions rejected a few weeks back. MG will have their due diligence procedures and I disagree with you. The decision to remain committed to the project by MG is significant. Tony