Member Info for Tornadotony

If West Kenya were bought from Shanta at this moment time it would attract bids above $40M. If someone came along and bought the mine on its completion it would cost at least $60M (probably the cost if the mine had to be constructed from this point onwards). New Luika is likely to return to 400,000 reserve ounces which is another $40M and ignores all the resource ounces. Various sources have different book values for Shanta, but they range from 11.6p (gold price around 1700) to 14.8p which at this high end implies Shanta is trading 0.68 times to book value. It has a functional production complex which will soon be extended to give 45% growth. As far as I can see the company stock appears undervalued.

9.81p is going through on buys.

Thanks for the redomicile message.

Some theme music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntG50eXbBtc

I have discovered that the email contact on the company webpage does not work. As a consequence I will put a list of things together and telephone them directly. It will be interesting to see if that works. I once called HZM and ended up speaking to the CEO directly. It has resulted in my being an investor in that company for two years now. The first thing they can put right is the contact page.

I have banked 5/6th of my holding for 23% profit since March 2021. Matches with UK inflation. Letting the rest run and grateful for what I have got. RSI daily at 77 and stochastics running hot on 100. AAZ now catching a decent bid, but Shanta getting precious little for some reason. Assuming new mine comes on in time Shanta is on a 45% growth path. Whatever decisions others make I wish you the best of luck. I will be writing less on the CEY Board. Tony

The share price has been held back by 2p when compared with Centamin. The shares were on the same track throughout 2022 up until the end of November. Centamin gave resources and reserves based on a $2,000 gold price in December. Shanta reserves are priced at $1350 gold price. Centamin costs are approaching $1450 an ounce and their Q4 was not expected to be as good as Q3. I look forward to finding out why value is not respected for Shanta and who is selling the stock down.

reehunter

Still holding in PRE, what about yourself? Also holding in RBW. The largest position in my own portfolio is cash at present. The only position I have reduced significantly is Centamin with a 23% return on what I sold (was second highest holding in my portfolio). Also sold out of GDGB ETF a bit to early but caught the bottom at 22/23 but basically hit my targets. The position in BlueJay is tiny along with what I hold in Polymetal and HOC and they are all skin in the game observational plays basically seeing if anything happens with them in the future and learning a lot of what those companies are doing. I have engineered a high free carry in HZM. All the best Tony

Pleasantly surprised that someone finally remembered they mine gold and silver out there. Meyer did them a favour the other day by mentioning AAZ.

Q4 was to be a very productive with a target of 99,000 ounces of gold or 9 M ounces of silver. The gold to silver ratio was 80 in Q4 with gold average price of $1730 and silver $21.3. The company had some local issues end of October beginning of November. They emphasised it was business as usual. What is key is that silver and gold sold was hopefully geared to December when prices were higher. It will be a real test to see how good they are delivering under such pressure and how the retail performed on sold prices. If they kept a lot back for January, all the better and perhaps we should look through some of the results if unsold ounces is on the high side. Tony

I am staggered how many shares most of you folks have in one share. I once had 100,000 NG (National Grid) shares that I parked for a few weeks to collect their divi back in 2010 (650p each) to help with a house purchase. This was after the CFO confirmed publicly that NG was not going to do a rights issue. Around 20 days later NG did a rights issue and I was 100k down at 8@01 in the morning. A year later I got out of NG with a net profit of around 28k and never went back to them. The experience scared the daylights out of me. All I can say is that I hope HZM do well and that some of you who gain remember a few good causes to bless your luck. Currently have 10,000 shares in HZM but have kept cash to buy 10k on a pull back. My position has a 35% free carry. All the best Tony

This company has discovered some incredible resources. Mergers and acquisitions are likely to happen in the second half of this year and this company could easily get snapped up.

The down side risk on 4th quarter results is a loss of $1.7M as a result of production and a similar amount for sub 1800 prices and higher AISC could take the worse case at $5M.

The upside is 1 million ounce increased with inferred resources at Ramula with an Enterprise value increase of $10M.
If the measured resources at Isula and Bushiangala were just 50% of the March 2021 figure of 378,000 ounces the measured resource value of 190,000 ounces converted gives an additional enterprise value of around $4M. Luika is being assumed equivalent to what was mined out in 2021. Overall an increase of 0.75p if worse case production happened. If not we are up 1-1.25p. At some point WK will announce reserves and this is when a huge increase in enterprise value happens. 100,000 in reserves is like 250,000 resources ounce measured or 500,000 ounces of new inferred resources.

2 November Luika RNS --- Reserves and resources expected in January 2023.

Isula and Bushiangela resource update was expected end of 2022 and might be included in New Luika RNS reserves and resources.

West Kenya total inferred resources transferred to measured and indicated resources was expected in several months according to 9th November RNS.

I would not be surprised if Luika reserves recovered what was mined out in 2022.

Theo

We have loads of LSE Boards. Why on earth do you pick this one to come along and give contrarian views. We all know what your views are. As soon as a few 40k and 50k buy trades come in you guys appear like in Lord of the flies surrounding the pig to protect a short positions or the interests of the Chinese Government. Tony

Gold futures now at $1836 per ounce. Either gold is running with bull traps or a genuine breakout is being worked through. What favours a breakout as the Chinese New Year physical buying. The Year of the rabbit kicks off on 22 January. Gold sometimes rally before the lunar New Year or afterwards. Another feature is hot first day for the new year and we then get a sell off for the remainder of the week before stepping up again next week.

Centamin has around $160M plus cash. My comment related to Egypt. The company has reduced quite a bit of costs but they are still 8% higher than before and a lot of costs in 2021 overran into 2022. They also had a lot of additional operational costs by replacing subcontractors and doing their own mining. The overall figure still comes out to 16% although the Board did guide those costs for 2022.

Apologies March 2022 on previous.

Why anyone should write on here regularly who does not have a long or short position on the stock,
Why anyone should waste time down ramping a particular stock if they have no short position to gain from such activity,
Why anyone continually misrepresents the assets the company has unless it is their interest to do so,
Why anyone continually misrepresents what the company presents at AGM meetings,
Why anyone is so focussed on the activities of a Chairman who owns around 5% of the company when it is the outputs of other Board members which is probably far more important and finally ignores how the company shareholders are firmly behind the Pensana Board as they try and get the funding at more reasonably rates of interest.

The company, I believe was approached back in March 2021 by another source and turned down takeover bids and also offers of funding packages which they did not see as good value to shareholders. The issue is not about funding, it is the rates sponsors want as a return on their investment.

go should be gold in previous.