Member Info for Tornadotony

Its a big deal that MG put more cash in. They will know far more than any of us PIs.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PRE/us-4m-equity-placement-to-m-g-investment-management/15767048

Company suggests this is what will get them to financing. I recall a 23p uplift at the initial funding from MG. I certainly think it will get them to the LJ financing and hopefully Saltend shortly afterwards. Pensana may probably put on the board anyone the financers want to watch the money and project delivery for sure. A lot people want the projects to succeed. Tony

Error in the second line Armenia as do Russia instead of and Russia.

Visitor,

The USA Government within Azerbaijan has been helpful, but that message has not got through to the Democratic party in USA who side with Armenia and Russia. Both countries are siding with Armenia as they do not like the idea of Azerbaijan supplying Europe with oil and energy supplies. This is not lost on Turkey and the EU and can spill over into NATO and what is happening in Ukraine. Hence why this issue is all being made very public. The Russian peacekeeper commander has been summoned for talks by the Azerbaijan government as he was preventing AAZ staff visiting their mine to benefit an Armenian company operating illegally. USA has to get its foreign policy in better order and they now have an opportunity to do it as it looks like the USA Government supports illegal acts against its European commercial allies. Tony

Absolutely wasarunner. Peace in Ukraine would change things quite dramatically. Another major earthquake near nickel mines in Indonesia would have an impact and would at least keep HZM where it is. A takeover bid on HZM is another possibility. Without any black swans though we shall see what plays out. Volumes in the market are now falling as a wind down to Christmas unfolds. I wish all our readers a safe and happy Christmas and good health for now and the coming New Year.

Barry, the sells are actually buys this morning. Other gold juniors are starting to move up. However there is a tag team here thinking the support line is going to give way.

Buys going through at 9.09p area.

There is one fundamental issue and that is a macro recession risks hitting all of the equity market. The auto industry has taken a beating of late. China is slowing its demand for nickel along with many other commodities as they shut down some industries to conserve energy outputs in winter along with Covid-19 disruptions. This often happens in January and around the New Year holiday season. If a low was to happen it would be in the next six weeks and the tailwind recovery would happen afterwards. The inverse situation is in rare earths which tend to rally strongly in January and some shares in that stock area are heavily oversold as that part of the Chinese industry is shut down on the global markets.

This was made known a month ago in the news and confirms actions taken by the company as a result. The value of the assets have not been credited in the stock price to date as far as I can ascertain. It therefore should already be priced in.

Resistance line at 142.8 in play. Major support lines are at 131, 128 and 123p all FIB points. Breakaway move appears to show buyer exhaustion with a down trend possibility. Traders rather than investors may act on this. HZM was heavily overbought. Tony

I agree. Juniors getting roughed up and majors on the rise this morning. Juniors will get valued in the near future. In the meantime it is on discount for those looking for a port in a storm.

At least 5p on the share price.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SHANTA-GOLD-LIMITED-4005388/revisions/

I was using market screener which is 1.2p FCF to be precise for 2023. FCF is after taxes and Royalties and debt repayments.

Hoping it starts a Pensana move upwards. We just need a billionaire looking for an oven ready project. Last December we got a surprise investor hopefully we get another. Happy Christmas and new year to all our readers. Tony

A lot of evidence is building of a shortage in the copper market and the company has now found more gold. As we approach the end of the year, I remain hopeful for AAZ next year. It is a reliable source for divis. The strategy document is really important. I hope the company is doing an excellent job in putting it altogether. I certainly encourage them to have several external experts contribute as the evidence to the market would have greater value.

As the year ends I am keeping Rainbow Rare at a core holding which has matched my HZM holding. I have ear marked cash for rainbow rare later on in case of a recessionary pull back to re-establish an overweight. I am hoping George will follow what Eric Zurrin has done at Shanta Gold and gives an annual time line of outputs and can keep communications in line with it. It helps maintain investor interest.

I was impressed with the current recent developments and so keeping all my core holdings in HZM. In my case it is 4% of my portfolio that has an in built free carry of 18% from trading in 2020/2021 and a good average entry price. All the data that I have read indicates nickel is in very short supply in the coming future years. I have kept some cash back for any recessionary equity price dip.

Value will arise when the company generates some free cash flow and pays off any funds it has borrowed. In the current year, the company has invested on growth. The conversion of inferred resources to measured and indicated resource has increased the in ground higher valuation. So 400,000 MI resource arose against 70,000 Proven mined out.

70,000 x $140 = $9.8M as a debit 400,000 x $30 = $12M The net increase in enterprise value is around $2.2M. The importance here is that mined out value was all replaced.

The company believes an additional 500,000 on inferred exists at $10 per ounce= $5M additional enterprise value.
The company borrowed around $10M and more drilling results from Luika are due. The net effect is probably no real change at this time in net value.

However, in the coming year Capex expenditure will fall as Singida is fully built after Q1. The company returns to earning free cash flow. This is likely to be around 1p FCF per share. This will add around 4p to the share price and where 13p arises at the current gold price. Factors that elevate FCF further are higher gold prices, VAT repayments and eventually higher production volumes. In 2024 The FCF should take Shanta to 17-18p. In addition WK may begin to deliver reserves instead of just resources. The reserves without a mine offer 2.5x increase for in the ground value. So a maiden reserve of 700,000 ounces for WK would increase enterprise value by $75M or so or 5.5p per share and give a valuation around 23-24p. Higher valuations arise when gold is above $2,000 an ounce. As I have said previously, current Shanta buyers have a chance of increasing the return on their investment by 100% in 18 months. This assumption assumes gold is broadly around the $1800 per ounce area. Tony

PS I added with a top up buy this morning.

Steve absolutely right and its different to the 1970's as well. We have Governments that have borrowed at astronomical high levels, high inflation, low productivity and growth, a move away from globalisation, a vastly older work force and population demography in many developed economies with all the uncertainties of climate changes and energy transition. All these things together make the current situation different. Still higher interest rates may likely tank the housing market other than rental.