Member Info for Tornadotony

Put orders on at 35.5 today when at 36p and it moves up. Hope that has not called wolfie from the forest.

I liked the questions fellow investors chose and Eric's reply to them. I had a note from Eric yesterday thanking me for supporting Shanta.

Gold has just got a small bounce, but all the other gold miners and ETFs are suggesting some kind of pull back as China goes into holiday mode this weekend and will be off most of next week. Shanta bounced off 12p resistance. It looks like support down at 10.5p is now very strong. If we can hold double digits it will be a case of 2 steps forward and hopefully just one step back and that becomes the new repetitive pattern for Shanta as things progress during the year.

It is all about gold assumptions made by Berenberg. I suspect they are using $1900 gold price average for the entire year with a peak at some point at $2100 and top end of AISC at $1375 an ounce on 460,000 ounces will hit the Berenberg ceiling price. At 112p the model assumes that ceiling is hit with gold t $1800 gold price average for the year and all other factors stay the same.

Henry,
Although your model is reasonable. The company would not get a payment in advance. What may happen is they repay for the past at $150M and negotiate a lower rate in the future as a one off payment. I am staying with my high end working model of $120M balance sheet total after all costs and the share price returns to 52p. I believe the share price is at $80M on the balance sheet at this time. £100M for the company is transformational and does mean 86% of enterprise value is cash in the bank. The company would need excellent execution of how they use that cash to deliver shareholder future value. I would prefer Samsung just bought the company outright and that might happen instead.

It is all about the reserves and resources. With the arrival of the solar farm, has it made reserves more economic to mine out. Can that $2,000 an ounce price tag be reduced to $1800. If it can then increase in resources can go into increasing the enterprise value.

I will go back into Centamin if it retreats during February. Although the 92% I sold is now in a savings account, I have cash in reserve in the portfolio to earn a new investment result. I just need them to get rid of that one red flag.

No uplift at the open but maybe later when the company presents.

Centamin should have an uplift at the open. Gold recovery held up. Solar plant delivering savings and keeping AISC lower. Guarantees 6% plus improvement plus 5% growth. Gives a price floor around 104p instead of 78p in 2022 in my opinion. Uncertain where the ceiling is but currently 125p.

The option for the Board to consider is doing a share split. So for every 100 shares held it becomes 1 share. The new share price is not 45p, but 16p after they have done a placing. Some shares will have gone to other financing parties as part of the dilution. Such a formulae delivers a 65% loss to holders. However, if the company succeeds in what it proposes then shareholders could in theory break even if they could deliver on the entirety of what they proposed. The directors 4% is also heavily reduced and the question is would they use some of their own money to limit the degree of dilution upon themselves to get back to near what they owned before. If they don't then the confidence is in their own plan has little confidence. If they do at least share holders know that everything they can call their own is invested in a successful outcome. I mention this in case nobody has considered this as something they might decide upon at an AGM.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-18/Davos-2023-Egypt-sees-high-demand-from-investors-after-currency-drop-minister.html

We shall see if there is high demand tomorrow.

Sotolo,

I have not rang them back as we now know they have changed the date to 31 Jan without relaying it to HL and LSE and many others. I sense we have a few busy people in the office who do not want to respond to PIs. In response to a letter I wrote about the permit awhile back, I got a frustrated reply back like how can they know what goes on in Peruvian Government Departments and how long they will take. I sense staff are being cut out of the loop in the London office as to whatever is going on out in Latin America. They were certainly not all geared up with briefing for an out-going production report. Tony

Avoids interaction with idiocy.

So the presentation is on-going. Thanks for explaining the issue deepjoy.

The presentation is 10.30am London time.

Hopefully they will have it recorded somewhere.

No call back. We wait for 31 Jan. I am glad to have just a small holding here. The company need to announce a permit on 31 Jan if they have a Q4 miss on production.

If the market reaction is this negative on a 4% miss will it mean a similar rise on a 48% increase. Take down a penny on that miss up 12 pennies later on the gain = 22p share price. Market may not operate like that, but if it does it will be lots of jam in the summer.

It was good news and images given that can be seen on London exchange website RNS show some of the work. However the RNS did not give a hint when the 135000 ounces will be mined out and for what time period. Hence little reaction.

Eric will explain what happened in production at 9:30 am. hopefully the market will be forward looking afterwards. What everyone is losing sight of is that AISC goes down once higher production kicks in.

The reserves increase adds $8M value where as the production shortfall lost $1.5M.

The reason for the underperformance of Shanta from 5 November is now explained. The production drop off was heavily priced into the stock. The report contains significant positives. Reserves increased by 80,000 ounce and replaced all what was mined with a 1 year LOM extension. A lot of new equipment has been added to the fleet as a de-risk in 2023 production and forward mining planning starts the year at 73% de-risk. Production costs were in the range and the forecast in 2023 is very promising with a 50% production uplift. This will transfer debt in the EV value to the share price as debt gets repaid. The divi looks like it can be maintained and more reserves and resources to be added from WK.