Member Info for Tornadotony

Averaged down a couple of pennies. Follow the big boys. They always average down and when they start to buy it goes up a lot.

Well at least something on another project has emerged.

Uggy I have chased them again this evening. It is not rocket science sorting it all out.

The last two tranches I will be buying will be quite an average down at this rate.

I would just add that in the last annual report it says:
We aim to have validated our materials and to have visibility of commercial production from
the customer around the end of H1 FY23. In addition it anticipates a second Asian source customer to double its order book volumes with the company and to proceed with an additional product sensor.

The company are pursuing leads with six other customers at different stages was in the Edison data. They need two to go into full production to deliver $30M income revenue. If we assume $12M profit is derived is £9.8M a year profit. Exclude all the cash a company with that profit profile alone is worth around £50M at 5 PE rate. 6 production customers would make Nanoco a £150M company = 43.7p. This excludes Samsung cash payments. Two customers in production would give 36-40p with Samsung monies ring fenced.

The fact is every document from Edison has the following;
This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Furthermore Peel and Turner were paid by the company and every analyst report I have read always over eggs the pudding as that is what they are paid to do. In fact realistic figures to take on analyst reports should be divided by at least half and sometimes a quarter especially when they have not given a bottom forecast estimate.

Nanoco communication material also has disclaimers. It is pointless writing to FCA imop. They will just point out the above.

A point I should make about committee meetings within a company. Outsiders would be asked to leave the room if any in-confidence material was to be discussed that could compromise an outsider. It is a standard operating procedure. In fact the outside company would insist on leaving the room and not knowing as not to compromise their company. it was always the practice in companies I worked in.

As for Lombard they have actively traded the share for years up and down. The original entry was around 35-36p. on 3 occasions they sold off 1/3 of the holding and bought back at lower prices. I estimate they reduced there pool average to around 27p gaining 3p on their holding each time. (I went through every TR1 they produced since April 2017). The question now is what do they do from this point onwards. In previous occasions they bought the shares back. When they did so Nanoco shares rallied. In fact anyone who followed the actions Lombard took would have been successful since 2017.

1. Let us see if we get a few TR1s this week. If previous institutional have sold down have they come out with a statement they are done selling and now support the company as a message through Edison or whoever and it is communicated to us. Do we have a new institutional investor getting involved with a new set of projects and product development lines. Does MG for example have an interest.

2. Let us see if a company puts up a new presentation that gives a vision and provides a timeline of when measurable targets will be achieved. When they plan to have a meeting with an organisation that will facilitate a QA session afterwards. Will they have an investors event we can follow on the internet and listen to pitches of where the company has an opportunity to be transformational.

3. They recruit a couple of members staff that add significant value. One who is good at bringing institutional funding and the second who can get doors open for a number of new projects with big business and who knows where companies have problems in which nanoco is ideally placed to deliver a solution both in UK and globally.

It is when we have this lay out we know if the investment here is worthwhile and not just a trading punt in Samsung litigation. The result was just £10M off my average net off my projections to be at 36-40p trading range. We can return to that area quickly if we see quality action emerging around the company and within it. I am quite happy to receive holding replies from the company if we have a date when they will do their reveal to investors. How many companies are trading 90% cash in the bank as enterprise value on the market is hardly any. Everyone is waiting to hear the story from the CEO and the Board on what they intend to do and what the targets of success are and the probabilities for their achievement and how they manage risks and deliver sustainability. Tony

From the company report January 2022.

Our sum-of-the-parts valuation of Bluejay is US$301m (£223m). Bluejay is currently trading
at a significantly discount to this valuation. As the company moves closer to production at
Dundas and advances of the Disko and Enonkoski projects we believe these ‘de-risking’
events will lead to a re-rating of the company.

So the company sees 22p valuation one day and it all starts with Dundas. Hopefully something of interest emerges in February.

3 November 2021

Chief Executive Officer’s statement

We have made a number of advances this year in building foundations for potential future value creation. This was achieved despite the continuing challenges of operating in a Covid-19 secure way with unpredictable impacts on staffing due to isolation requirements. The commitment of the team to service our customers and to step up and adopt new responsibilities cannot be faulted.

We grew our pipeline of customer opportunities throughout the year, particularly in infra-red sensing markets. We have also continued development work with customers in the display field using our CFQD® quantum dots which are also relevant for lighting and life sciences opportunities.

The litigation against Samsung for the alleged wilful infringement of our IP has taken significant effort on the part of a small number of team members. The Board is very pleased with progress in the last year and remains confident in the strength of our position and that transformative value can be generated for shareholders if the outcome is successful.
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The wording above places the CEO in a position to now demonstrate to share holders what he means by transformational development. If he transforms the company into a revenue generating business by having enough projects coming through so that statically they will get Runcorn 50% at revenue capacity and earns £20M a year instead of £2M then one could say a 10 fold effect is truly transformational. Tony

The clues on Centamin retreat from recent high.

1. Q4 report has Q1 2023 on lower production numbers as they reminded everyone of maintenance schedules and the like.
2. CEO say CEY 80's price was really cheap and we are finally at fair value.
3. The USD on RSI falls near to an oversold trigger that it has only done so 6 times in recent two decades. Implies gold has to retreat at some point and the trigger was pulled on Friday with USD up and gold USD down.
4. China returns to work after New Year holidays. Often get pullbacks as physical peak buying cools and paper trades have more sway.
5. GDX ETFs stall out with buying support exhausted.
6. More Gold eagle articles appear suggesting February pull back in gold, mainly sentiment indicators. (Large/Medium miners respond in advance).

The fastest way to get ill regarding investing is to behave the way you are doing so. I can tell you that every single company has risks, has difficult decisions to make and does not have the world in their control. If an investment or trade goes against what you want to do is one of the following;

1. Get out of Nanaco and look at other exciting companies that will deliver what you want and recover any loss here.
2. Buy more Nanaco and trade the pants off of it over time. Gets your average down and trade down to what you want to hold.
3. Hold your position and put in bottom draw and enjoy life and what makes you happy. Life is to short and you miss what is important and wonderful around you.
4. Take it as a learning exercise and some off table and leave some on.

What you do not do is whine into self destruction, regret. Instead build up research analysis skills, discount any pump noise, work out your own models be more resilient and maintain respect for yourself. Lecture over and out.

Tony

My wife and I have a combined total of 60,000 average 36p.
I have written to the company asking them to a number of simple things for us. Such as an updated listing of shareholders, a news/financial annual calendar, an identified contact responsible for talking and attracting in large new institutional investors, identifying strategic targets and a 5 year plan vision etcetera. I also mention the shareholders and board members being on the same page regarding rewards and having transparency. Interesting to see if they just act on it or thank me in the reply and say what they hope to do. I have raised the point that consuming enterprise value that is cash needs to deliver asset growth. All the best Tony

Oh golly with not wit
doesn't not does it

It sure is Nano and hence why I hope they can pull 2 good customers and we would see the share price above yesterday. They are on a journey wit the first one. The ball is really low to find another 2 so that if 1 does it make it the others provide a market. They will of course have to be continually finding customers as business development.

Quickest gold drop on stochastics to zero on a lot of time indicators and the RSI hourly on just 16. USD of course is bolted higher. How on earth has 74,000 public sector jobs been created in December USA. Those job numbers can not be real. They must have counted employees pets as well.

If they had 6 products by 2025 all maximising the use of the Runcorn facility they could earn say £60M a year and the share price would be around 74p.

One project was an infrared sensor in cars if you listen to the Edison commentary from last year. If it does go all the way it utilises 16% capacity at Runcorn and generates $15-17M income per year with say a 50% profit margin.

HenryH

Today is an emotional day and a lot of people, myself included were in at 37p and 10p down. I am confident of getting the position back one way or another. The CEO probably had little choice in the end. his excuse is that it was stopping him delivering better value to shareholders. It will be important they explain it in more detail in the coming days. If they have several key customers that fit Nanoco into their supply chains than this will prove to be a good investment instead of a quick trading stock. I only jumped in here on knowing more about the product. If I did not like the product I would not have bothered jumping in.

GigaWitt

I had my own models that had a median result of £80M after all costs and I underestimated legal costs as it came out £70M. At the current price the Runcorn plant is valued at £9.5M, £6M in the bank plus settlement known = 27p a share.

The current prospects given for any future customer contracts is zero at this price. This can not be correct. I had that base equivalent to 10p a share with the prospect of it increasing to 17p. This is equivalent to 3 major product contracts served out of Runcorn production for the top end. The question is can Nanoco, without the litigation taking up their time achieve it.

There is only one person who we can blame if our expectations are not met and it is ourselves. The

Edison in the last presentation they gave last year identified the Runcorn capacity having a potential of $100M revenue if it had enough customers to keep it operating 24/7. If they were in a supply chain for 1 major product such as infrared sensors used in automated vehicles it would utilise 1/6 of the capacity and so generate annual income of $15-$17M.

It therefore comes down to whether the company can succeed with only £12.5M as cash reserve after all of their litigation funds either achieve 1/3rd capacity at runcorn.At such a level the company earnings are £14M per annum. At that run rate assuming all litigation monies are spent as well has a valuation a 8PE rate and £12.5M in cash would deliver 37p share price valuation.