Member Info for Tornadotony

CGT on share profits drops to £6,000 in the coming financial year. The minnow holders may want a loss on the books not to pay Hunt's CGT tax on profits on trading accounts that are not ISAs. Some Polymetal holders selling property that is not the principle home are also likely to utilise Polymetal losses to off set tax as the UK Government have a done lot to wipe out landlords with small portfolios. The ability to sell to create the loss has a value where other assets have a lot of CGT to pay. February and March are critical months to do this. The SETs issue has just made it more desirable to off load Polymetal on the earlier side.

I have no info on the news timeline. The reference to March comment was reflecting how tight the buy sell range will become if we do not hear any news.

It has turned back from the 200 day SMA once again. We have a very active trading range being played until we get some news. The rejection is all down to A trades. I am convinced an RNS of importance is needed to breakthrough. It has to work through in March.

Vidacos nominees are now holding very large chunks of RBW and Pensana.

Wishing everyone here good luck . My small holding of 1000 has been sold off. The problem the company will not be able to solve here is liquidity. For small holders there is no point in trying to stick it out. The costs of managing it elsewhere do not stack up for us unless holding a lot of these. It will probably now shoot up to 900p.

Half way through the quarter so in the next few weeks we will get something to look forward to. Still holding Rainbow at 5% of the portfolio with HZM moved up last month at 5.5%.

Hi Hogsnipe

I frequently look at marketscreener as well. It was just that the Hargreaves 200 SMA line shows at least six times in the past 18 months how PRE tried to break it and has been pushed back on each occasion and the last time was at 61-63p area very recently. An RNS announcing something materially positive would of course break the dam if you like that is the 200 day SMA holding the price down. The 52p-54p area is holding a higher support area and of course 48p support is underneath. Pensana is currently just under the 200 day SMA resistance line. Tony

The monthly and 3 monthly charts have the shares broadly moving up and down together. AAZ diverged after a good RNS but came back into line with CEY. Someone asked how they compare a few days back. AAZ is to be a copper growth mining stock that happens to continue mining gold as well. Another good divi paying stock and that is probably why they are getting bagged together.

On Hargreaves and Lansdowne platform it is possible to pull up the Pensana chart. In doing so it is possible to use a facility to pull up the 200 day SMA. I mention this in case we see Pensana back away from it again. To breakthrough the 200 day SMA is likely to require important positive news. In the meantime the 200 day SMA should stop falling and flat line if PRE stays in the current trading range we have seen of late.

The USD was oversold on the weekly chart going back a week ago. I believe since 2000, the USD weekly oversold has been hit 6 times and was recorded and analysed by Chartguys last week. They gave a probable forecast to have a big drop from 1960 and the day after the gold price drop occurred. The issue is not so much about gold, but the strength of USD. Tonight the dollar index has recovered to an RSI of 42.8 and Stochastics back up to 60.7%, but MACD is still negative on the weekly time scale. It will take either two or three more weeks for USD to top out again and move back down. When it does gold will move back up and rally. The bottom on gold can be anywhere between 1820- to 1860 per ounce in this current retreat.

Centamin is having a low production month so is more sensitive to the gold price this quarter. If we take 1960 gold as a marker for 123p CEY share price and 105p as being 1880 gold price as atheoretical example. This suggests every $4.4 drop in gold is 1p off Centamin share price. The 1820 low would be 92p and 1860 low is 100.5p for CEY if consistent to the drop so far.

The good news is that we have every chance of seeing CEY have a go at 125-127p again in April which is likely the last FED rate hike as they bake in the mother of all recessions later on. Tony

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HZM/tr-1-notification-of-major-holdings/15829957

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102082216/smm-forecast-on-refined-nickel-market-in-2023

The view from China.

I managed to add 125% to my holding in the high 130's to low 140's. Hoping i get another chance to add more.

Apparently 103,000 of the new jobs created were striking academics at Universities returning to work.
I wonder how many other strikes came to an end that are reclassified as new jobs. I doubt when people go on strike that it does not count as a job lost. Did you here Powell say earlier this week that his data is high quality. Gold moved higher after that comment which demonstrated Powell was giving more practice of outright lying to TV cameras.

Theo
You rescued the M&G letter from the round file for a deep dive analysis. How interesting. Alas the defenders can not resist holding on to my shirt. No I did not write the reply letter from the nice lady from M&G. Tony

SP
Of course I did not write it. It came from M&G. I never heard of TCF. I was just trying to find out how they make investing decisions. I wrote to them several weeks ago. It is no big deal. Of course whenever I write anything on this board, it becomes like a football match where I feel like a striker getting marked by two defenders every time I get the ball even when I may be offside.
Anyway I thought it was nice that M&G took the time to actually bother to reply to me.
Tony

Letter has been top and tailed.

Firstly, we note that Pensana may be held across more than one fund at M&G at any given time, so the investment thesis behind each holding may differ slightly depending on how the stock is expected to contribute to the overall objectives of each individual fund. This also applies to hedging risks, where the holding will be considered in terms of its overall impact on the portfolio from a risk management perspective, as well as the impact of M&G’s combined ownership of the company.

At M&G, we conduct our own in-depth research in-house, with both embedded UK analysts and M&G’s central research team being among the key resources available to the fund managers, as well as third-party research and analysts. Unfortunately, we are restricted in the information that we can share with regards to how we then construct our valuations for any individual holding. This is primarily because we have responsibilities as a regulated investment house, such as the Treating Customers Fairly (TCF) requirements, which broadly stipulate that we are unable to share certain types of non-public information with individual clients or prospective clients. Providing information of this type could also be considered financial advice, which we are unfortunately unauthorised to provide. It would also likely be considered share price-sensitive, given the size of M&G’s holding in Pensana. More generally, we would be reluctant to provide this type of analysis on an ad-hoc basis, as the investment case in any company can be subject to change with little warning.

With regards to our overall investment thesis behind the decision to take the positions you have quoted in Pensana, we would echo some of the themes that you and analysts have cited, including the company’s potential to support the renewable energy transition and its potential strategic advantage due to its geographical locations.

This should save folks contacting M&G and to understand how they work.

Tony

I expected a pull back but this now trades like HOC. I am sure it will go back up later in the year. The key is having a pool of overweight volume of shares with a 95p ish average and go for core weight holding after a 15p rise and getting a nice divi on it. Covers annual inflation after taxes and costs.

OOps.

in December and be ready for serving now.

This report was due in Q1 2023. It therefore met the deadline they stated.

So far we are getting exploration related RNS information. What we are anxiously waiting for is the move into production on Dundas. Hopefully the Dundas RNS is being finalised and contains promising information that will satisfy sponsors who will get the project financed for delivery. So far we are getting small apertiffs or a smaller starter dish. We are looking for the main course and was told it would be oven ready in December by now and ready for serving now.

Tony