Member Info for Tornadotony

Back into a range where it bounced last time to 60p. NdPr price pull back has levelled off. The advent of a new cold war that has been made clear this week in my opinion expands the need for all rare earth materials. No longer just a climate protection stock, but a defence stock as well. At some point Angola mine project has to be funded and started.

Did well last time. Will average off if support does not hold. Gold eagle has reported reverse head and shoulder chart patterns. At some point gold to be a safe port in a storm. Now 1.5% of portfolio.

West Kenya asset is approaching 4p in the current share price. Singida in production is also 4p in the current share price. The existing mine operations on-going in Tanzania is valued at 5.6p although has a debt for building the Singida mine in the balance sheet -2.4p. The share needs to be re-rated to 13-14p as it removes debt off the balance sheet. As Ramula develops into reserves another 2p valuation should also be added to the valuation. Shanta should be around 17p by the end of 2023.

Steve
We have been losing visibility on the extent of long gold contracts closed and the extent of the short contract increases at 27 times leverage. The short contracts can face margin calls when the volume position is high and gold moves 4% up. Those playing long contracts will wait to see if the short contract volume is at particular ratios to the long volume. It helps give them an edge as to when a new rally starts or a bottoming process is forming on gold. Those who went short could see he long volume buying was reducing when gold was at $1960 odd per ounce.

I am curious how a war in Ukraine can be fought with western central bankers continuing to hike interest rates. After pulling out of Afghanistan the optics would not look good for USA if they did the same with Ukraine. Inflation is going up anyway and high rates just create a much deeper stagflation.

Unless there is a one-off announcement for some reason, I don't expect that Edison will be publishing another report on Nanoco until the company releases its interim results.
Best regards,
Anne Margaret Crow


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I wrote the following.

Edison regularly updates investors on reports about Nanoco. I was hoping someone would be able to give me a good guestimate of when Edison is likely to do another report on Nanoco.

kindest regards

Troublesome, some just quoted the company or just reported the facts.

The point about a takeover by anybody is real. When a company trades below its actual future cash receipt value than someone who buys the company at the stock price gets all the assets for nothing and could actually make a profit. I am watching with amazement as to how long this dip will go on for. The share is at a discount to future cash in the bank. I have never held a stock in this position. It takes years for a company to build up a huge amount of cash in the bank.

The company must have a QA session for 28 March. An RNS offering that as an invitation has some value. We are of course back below future cash value. Everyone is waiting for the post litigation strategic grand plan.

They appear to have prioritised the current new mine development for this year and then Zafar follows a construction timeline afterwards and is on line November 2024. The 2025 and 2026 output from Zafar is equivalent to 50% of Gedebek at its peak. The peak of copper output arrives at a time when the market demand will be huge. Pricing at $1650 equivalent gold per ounce looks attractive suggesting good cost control for AISC and profitable return. I suspect Gedebek will still be producing. It would be helpful to have a production profile for all the mines together to 2026.

Bonzo

We are communicating at cross purposes.
Of course the patents have a value, hence my exasperation of why late this afternoon they are valued at nothing. Book value can be negative when a company faces the prospect of liabilities such as a bank that is faced with defaulting loans or a company that has a new competitor that diminishes its market share and future profitability. When the asset values is actually cash and the company is valued less than the cash it holds in the bank 14 months from now and that all of its other assets are priced at nothing is what I have not come across before.

I was not having a go at the company or the staff, but whoever is driving the share price down has that grievance. Tony

It likes the uncross trade has managed to restore dignity and taking valuation positive again.

I have never held shares in a company that trades below asset values. Quite amazing to be the case and it reflects really bad on all the staff that work at the company. The entire output is regarded as not only worthless, but actually has a negative valuation. It is not just the future Samsung income, as they still had cash from a previous share raise. They also have a range of other assets and a plant and all the patents now worth nothing. That is not something to be proud of. The only question now is how negative the market takes down Nanoco share price. Trading at what will be a negative future PE rate will be a new one on me.

Holding of voting rights reaches, exceeds or falls below 3% and each 1% threshold above 3% up to 100% requires the investor institution to issue a TR1 notice as this has influence on distribution of shareholder voting rights.
LOAM have not issued a TR1 for awhile which suggests they are now sitting on their hands.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgRuKkPAIHA

Background.
Mocoa Columbia 232,000 tonnes inferred Moly and 2M tonnes of inferred copper (world production of moly is 279,000 tonnes per year.

My tactic is now to hold for a confirmed bottom and buy more with a trend being a friend again. The upside here is when the company gives a projection for its annual production in GEOs. Hopefully it is is 10-15% higher than last year. Zafar could be on stream mid Q3. The production output for the next two years looks promising. AAZ to outperform the metal prices. Dividend looks secure. AAZ at 4.7% of my portfolio and further buys to uplift to 6.5% later.

https://goldseek.com/article/cot-report-delayed-due-computer-glitch

Not many glitches go on for weeks. This looks like suppression of revealing the extent of gold shorting activity. Adds to the range of data manipulation out of Washington DC.

Entire portfolio is now 2.5% Centamin. My portfolio target for CEY is to hit 20% so a lot more to add in as I put cash to work.

Every £1M of profit is around 3p on the share price.
On that basis £6M of profit as deferred licence income from Samsung over 9 years on the Edison spreadsheet plus a net £1M per year profit on everything else and £18.3M remaining in the bank plus interest = 24.4p share price at 8.5PE with enterprise value cash in hand. The activity priced out of Runcorn is minimal. Just £2M in extra licences per year make a huge difference and take the share price to 30p.

I wonder how many buy orders are in the book say 94-99.9p.

The NAV in June 2022 was £4.33M.

The settlement with Samsung has yet to be integrated as nothing has been paid over yet. The company has said after legal costs that its share was $90M =£74.4M. Various loan notes had to be paid off that was associated with the legal case if it was a successful outcome. The probability is that the net cash sum become £67M. The company has said the order book in 2023 has increased over 2022. It is therefore likely that the NAV is around £74M in total. The NAV then becomes 23p per share. Hardly any share trades below its basic NAV which is hard assets and cash in the bank. In fact it would be expected to trade typically between 1.25 NAV to 1.50 NAV which is 28.75p to 34.5p. Unfortunately we do not know what is going on at the company which has yet to put a financial diary on its web page and we are six weeks into 2023. We have no updates on shareholder ownership and everything on the company website is dated months ago. We can only assume that a lot of things are currently being done and we will get delivery of outputs soon.

Centamin got oversold and so a little bounce arose. At some point more selling can occur. We do have some support lines appearing and the first is at 98.2p which a good bounce arose the other day. I would not be surprised if we get a retest.