Member Info for TopCatz

Morning Kalan

I hope your Mum and Dad will be ok

I imagine most households and close family can echo the situation in your house. I have a small business set up as a limited company. I take salary up to threshold and draw the rest of my pay in dividends. A lot of small business's and one man bands are set up as ltd companies. We fall into the pocket of people with very little help. We may be able to furlough ourselves for a couple of months and get about £500 a month for April and May but have to prove we are only continuing with basic statutory duties to keep our company going. I can't survive on that and we are losing business hand over fist. At the moment I'm spending most of my day wrapping up business going out the door with a smile and a bit of begging in the hope that they will be all coming back in 3 months time. Some will, some won't. Net outcome we earn practically nothing for a few months and then have to rebuild the business. It won't take as long as starting out but we're talking a few more months patching it up. We have some cash reserves in the business so we can hobble along for the next 2-3 months. If it lasts much longer we are in real trouble. Luckily I have my 'new house' savings so no one will be starving for a while in my house but it's a blow. There will be lots of small businesses in the same boat. My Mrs works for BUPA so she's alright and most other members (brothers etc) are on 80% but one in particular working for a builders supply merchant is very worried about losing his job. You are spot on and every household can probably relate and even those working for larger companies at home on 80% (sounds like a holiday to me) will probably find that there will be a percentage of lay offs in many blue chips after this. In short the economy will be in real trouble. Anyhow my 'bet' seems to be off the ground and running now and this is definitely a down day. As you say, a wobble or the continuation of the downward slide on the indices.

Good luck. CEY possibly coming in to range over the next few days

*better of skinning a few pips that should read a,nd of course you're and not your *

Hi Rosewall. I'm no expert so kind of learning as I go along using basic principles. I don't want to buy now but am looking for a bit of exposure.

This is what i'm seeing.

The FTSE follows basic charting principles the same as anything, in fact as it's a huge collective it should follow the rules more rigidly, however and this is a big problem, the spikes and fluctuations can take anyone out in the blink of an eye.
As Kalan was quick to point out a while back. The FTSE follows the Dow or US 500 etc like a lamb so this also has to be taken into account. Charts look very similar to me which backs up this theory and is also pretty logical for analyst types out there.

So there are 2 obvious ways to play. Day ranging. shorting the highs or buying the lows if you think you can see them. A quick buck, I could have closed yesterday at £300+ and even now i'm £200 up. This is highly likely to be how most play the indices nicking a few quid here and there. With tight stops this is manageable but a lot of stress and I imagine becomes a bit of a habit that you probably don't want to get attached 2.

The 2nd is the long haul. If you think the ftse is on the way to 5000 at even a couple of quid a point that's £1400+ from the high this morning and in this climate we could get there as quickly as we came (ie a handful of days etc). However the big draw back is getting it off the ground. Tight stops get taken out PDQ as per my trade yesterday (doesn't matter as it's showing me the way) but loose stops if your wrong is going to cost a packet.

I'm favouring for this trade to give it 3 chances to get it off the ground with tight stops and in my case an accumulative risk (say £200 £40 yesterday, £80 today and another £80 for my final trade if it defies and continues it's trajectory upwards) so a kind of hybrid version and not unlike buying or selling in tranches to cover a wider range. If it starts running then I can be flexible, put trailing stops on etc, all that jazz.

There's also charges on ex divi days so you have to take that into account too and I haven't got the experience to tell you what the ex divi date for a few companies on 2nd April will cost.

I will report back. If It doesn't work I'm seriously missing how to catch the top or my methodology is incorrect and I would be skinning a few pips during day ranging. I'm quite happy to admit I'm cautiously playing this by ear as I go !

I'd hope they can't move the entire FTSE Speedy but know what you mean. I'm not a fan either but there's the possibility I can risk 40 or 80 quid at a time on stops etc and if I pull it off it wouldn't be impossible to make £500-£1000 on a nasty bear plunge. Sounds like a good 'bet' to me and that's what it is. I'm well aware that most people lose on IG so I'm very much respecting my stakes. Good day to you Speedie. I know you like you're gold. I'm wanting after CEY as a definsive stock but the price is too high at the moment

Thanks mate,

Just trying to nick a few quid here and there until I'm ready to commit properly. No one knows where the bottom is of course and lots think we've already bounced off it but plenty don't. Good luck

I'll probably regret this but i've slapped another short on at 5700 (IG which was probably 5710 in the real world). Pierced the top of the middle bolly band which it's respected during the downtrend). If it doesn't it's suggesting higher still which is hard to fathom. Stop 5740 (IG), so £80 on the line.

I'm going to allow myself one more if I get this wrong and then walk away so I'm willin to risk £200.

Last post on shorting the ftse I promise as I realise this is not the bb for it

Absolutely Kalan, I will be interested to hear what you come up with because the money will be in predicting the rallies. As you say there's probably more chance of any decline being punctured with decent buying spikes sucking in punters on the way, so getting in (and out) early on those could be really profitable. That will be trading phase 1. Phase 2 will be spotting the absolute bottom or shortly after etc and building a top quality portfolio to double, treble, or quadruple etc.

Sounds easy on a post doesn't it :)

looks like another up day on the cards but it's running out of steam. 5725 could be another ceiling if the bulls are losing enthusiasm

Closed out at a small loss. Should have booked the early profits but I thought that was just the start and I could let it run and run. I imagine it will plummet now. I'll watch for the MACD signal and then try once more if it doesn't. Sorry about the off topic everybody. Just putting it out there whilst it's quiet.

Just set the trailing stop at 5555 so i'm allowing myself to bomb out at - £40. I can live with that. Want to make sure I sleep well :)

You are right of course Kalan, but i've been here before and underestimated how stupid the collective market is. It can sometimes take an age for it to catch on. It could be stupid enough to drive the FTSE up to around the 6000 mark on pure optimism as you say. If it ever got there then that would have to be the short of the century. Just checked the ex divi dates and there is nothing until the 2nd of April for the FTSE so if i'm still up at close of play I might put a trailing stop around where I opened it just in case there's an after hours plunge at the tail end of Dow Jones trading. If it's hit no damage done and a valuable lesson in not being greedy but will give me a chance to let it run if it's winning. I guess anything around 70/80 pips on a day should be snapped up. You live and learn. Trading the indices is not something I want get too involved in. Don't think my nerves can handle it haha

Just realised IG have a margin of what looks like about 10 points above for selling ftse too as I've got the Trading View chart up and it's 10 points lower. I knew there was a reason i don't like spread betting firms

Cheers Kalan

I placed it pre open at 5538 as I couldn't believe that it was up and could have closed it for £300 + within half an hour! Still over £100 but want to let it run for a bit as I'm sure the shyte will have to hit the fan big time soon. Undecided whether to leave it overnight too as they charge when ex-divi dates come round due to the natural drop off the next day etc. Haven't used the old IG account for ages (not a fan) but the fact I can't see a long for love nor money lead me to shorting the lot in one fell swoop ! - Don't really understand the psychology over the pond though so I'm hopeful rather than confident that they start waking up to the economic devastation in front of us as I'm in agreement that the dow will lead the way North or South.

PS. Centamin too strong for me. I want some but want 110-112 and am standing firm on that

A speculative £2 per point bet this morning. It was nearly 30 points up before opening. Risky as it's not a confirmed sell but i'm betting it's on the turn. GLA

Hi Kalan,

Thanks for your post and well done on the electrical work. I'm sure you saved your step daughter a fortune !
Good to get a second opinion on the indices - Appreciate it. Looking at Oil and gas & gold charts too in conjunction with various associated companies. As you say it looks like sitting on ones hands might be the best option for next week. The only share on my radar would be CEY as I want exposure to gold, but gold looks like it might be topping out and CEY would have to retrace to around 110-112 before I get interested anyway and that would be a tentative in and out trade. Have a good evening. A choppy week on the cards

Yes Rosewall. Bit macabre but they can't but benefit out of this, unless staying in actually results in a 'net' reduction in the death toll. Unlikely but you never know in this upside down world. The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza. That's a staggering number of deaths but get your drift. There will always be niche companies that benefit in situations such as we find ourselves. Good luck with your trading. This is a time to be active with plenty of dry powder for sure.

Hi Rosewell, I'm in agreement with you regarding the aftermath coming. It's going to be immense in my opinion and very few stocks will remain unaffected. I've had a bit of time to check out where I think the FTSE is heading on the charts and they appear to be pointing to 4500 even though we've just been through a relief rally on the way there. The bollinger bands alone speak volumes and the lower band that's been hit regularly over the last 6 months are around the 4500 mark so no reason at all why that point shouldn't be revisited and it's not yet oversold on the RSI. The MACD is still suggesting a buy signal but a couple of down days and this could turn negative fuelling a sell off. I'm probably a million miles off the mark as usual but I'm smelling a sell off and will be looking for bargains on the bounce. I could be tempted to buy CEY or supermarkets before we hit the lows on the FTSE but It would be a 'weary' buy. Good day to you.

Hi Kalan, Hope you are well

Closed out my WG trade today (£900+). Happy with that but could have had a bit more if I'd closed last night. If today had been a buying day it would have hit the 180's but there you go. Just about every share on my hit list made good gains over the last couple of days so it wasn't particularly share specific, more macro.

Had a look at the FTSE and though there may have been a case for the rally to continue to almost 6000 but definitely looks like its reversing and I was never going to be in anything this weekend.

May I ask your views on the FTSE and Dow as you seem to be on top of the indices chartwise. I don't want to trade against the tide and my gut instict tells me we're shaping up for another leg down. Whether it will breach the key resistance points is anyone's guess but we'll probably have a better idea when we get there. The rising virus count in New York will not help the Dow one jot and we're be hitting our peak here too over the next couple of weeks so the news will be pretty black.

Anyhows no rush but your views on where you think the indices look like they're heading short term would be appreciated. Added GLEN & DGE to the trading list. So many strong companies that make good gains on buying days !

All the best

Looking very strong on the intra day chart. Could finish 165-170 if the Dow doesn't plummet. Still haven't pulled the incredible Divi yet but not out of the question as (see Weir but I'm banking on the Wood Group paying it out of the healthy bank balance. My theory is the strength is coming from shorts closing.

Yes. Nothing wrong with that RNS at all Moneyhawk and in different times it would have had more impact. Unfortunately everyone is probably looking at where the next good news is going to come from. Add to that the company being in lock down with the threat of further lockdowns. Look at Spain. 2 weeks and then another 2 weeks announced whilst in lockdown which I am 101% sure they knew they were going to announce at outset but wanted to make it more palatable. It's a model the rest of the world will follow, including in the UK unless the case rates start falling away rapidly (not impossible but highly unlikely). It's a real shame but hope you people look after yourselves. There's a hell of long way to go with all this doom and gloom and companies 'fair value' will not be reflected in their SPs for quite a while. There will be relief rallies of course (we're in one at the moment) but any new spur of optimism will be brought back down to earth relatively quickly.

Anyhow. Best to you all. By and large good people on here. JLP will be ok and won't go under so the story will continue.

Anywhere around 2.7 might be a good time to top slice of sell imo. I echo Kalan's post