Member Info for tonynorstrom1

For anyone doubting my intentions towards PANR – I posted twice on the i3e bb this morning at 8:27am and 7:31am (bottom paragraph) referencing PANR. So its quite clear that my intention is not to bash PANR or sow any doubts. I expect Investor111 and Cbaron to do the right thing and apologize for publicly doubting my motives.

I want to ask a question and it should be an important question for any investor here. First I will preface it by saying I have no reason to doubt David Hobbs or the new frac guy (I have less confidence in the CEO – he’s been around a long time now ). But I never just take Managements word for anything – I cross reference all data on the Companies I invest in.

So here’s the question – how do you know the flow rates in the RNS are good, bad or indifferent – It seems to me that many are just parroting what the RNS has stated. As I say – I have no reasons to doubt David Hobbs but I don’t take it as a statement of fact. I’m not sure many here have the required technical knowledge to make that determination themselves. But it would be a good question to dig into at the podcast today.

I did see a slide a few months ago in one of the PANR presentations where they presented the IRR’s for the wells based on the data at that time – I recall flow rates around 650 boepd and they were just ok – not spectacular. I compared these to wells in the Montney drilled by i3e. These are in tight formations requiring multi-stage fracs (so not too dissimilar to the North Slope)– the’re $10m-$12m a pop to drill and tie in and flow anywhere from 600 to 1200 boepd and they need to - to compare with the best formations in Canada. They do make very good IRR’s at 1000 boepd. So my data tells me that PANR are going to need 1000 boepd minimum to generate returns with a sufficiently high safety margins to attract investment capital especially as the wells on the North Slope are more expensive to drill.

Investor11

You have quoted me 100% correct and for some reason you are not understanding what I have said - so my post acknowledges that PANR stated upfront that the test was not designed to test maximum flow but gather maximum information on other parameters .

However, despite this the share price reaction appears to have been more muted than some were expecting including myself. Hence why I said I "SUSPECT" the muted response was due to the flow rates as this was the only thing that caught my eye as something that may not be considered as positive by all.

Be honest with yourself - are you surprised the share price did not tick up more this morning.

I take a little offence at you suggestion that i'm not a holder and part of a shorting group - perhaps you are part of a paid ramping group - what about that ?

"Your comment can’t be true as they have on numerous occasions advised that this was not about flow rates but considering the flow rates were better goes against your comment !"

There are several assumptions in this statement which I wont get into as I don't know it to be incorrect and equally you dont know it to be 100% correct . I have no reason to doubt this management team and in particular David Hobbs and the new frac expert - but its going to take a bit more evidence than a statement in an RNS saying the "flow results were better than prognosed"

Investor11 - to be precise, I said "I suspect the muted market reaction..........."

So I didn't miss the wording you highlighted, I'm pretty sure the market didn't either - I think we can agree that the share price reaction is a little muted on the back of what at face vale appears to be a positive RNS. So there is a reason for how the market has so far reacted so far - I'm not 100% sure myself why it is but I would suggest your comment doesn't really stack up 100% and perhaps shows a little Naivety on your part.

Investor111 - i've read the RNS a couple of times - maybe you have not understood ?? Perhaps you would be kind enough to explain what I, evidently a couple of others here and perhaps even the market have missed.

Investor111 - " ..not sure you have read the reference to flow rates in the RNS!!" - what a strange comment - its clear from what I have posted that I have read the reference to flow rates !!!!

Canaccord Genuity have issued a Broker note on PANR a short while ago - Its on Research Tree but its premium access - I dont suppose anyone could share.

I suspect the muted response so far this morning is due to the relatively low flow rates despite PANR addressing this issue upfront.

It will be an interesting podcast today with the Company giving more clarity on what the result will mean for flow rates/recoveries/commerciality.

"Should see a blue day ahead . Any ideas where you see this heading , 40p , 50p ??"

"This should send the shares to orbit . "

Yes its very good news for holders which include me !!! But I think you are going to have to put the order for the Rolls on ice and stick with the day job James !

A lot of truth in that Stas but Pantheons potential resources are are on a completely different level to i3e.

I dont know whether you are aware Stas - but Pantheon had a shift in strategy 6 months or so back - due to slow progress on a farmout - they decided to change from a farmout (as the base case) - to a self development model which necessitates lower capex levels and slower pace of development. If they prove out commercial flow rates and recoveries - you are potentially looking as a development that produces at hundreds of thousands of barrels a day at some time in the future and with scale the economics become better.

I agree though that currently i3e can bring on production faster and at much better rates of return than Pantheon - just takes a bit of patience that some here seem unwilling to show. Yes i3e is very good investment (IMO) particularly at the current SP. We just need to see the news flow starting up again and some positive developments which I am reasonably confident will come.

"We remain bullish !"

With regards to i3e’s current valuation – I don’t think it has very much to do with PR at all. IMO its nearly all down to the dividend cut and associated confidence in Management . You can do all the PR in the world, but if your last material news is Dividend Cut / Capex Cut/NOI Cut– then its going to take a bit of time to regain that trust – PR / Spin is simply not going to cut the mustard – investors are going to want to see evidence of a turnaround in the hard numbers. Since the resumption of the dividend was pushed out to beginning of Q4 along with any further drilling – news flow was always thin on the ground in Q3/Q4 hence why I’ve been saying patience is required.

I’m going to repeat it one more time – imo the main reason for the current SP malaise is the dividend cut (not PR*) – it was set too high and it’s a matter of record that you were pushing for it to be set even higher. Its also very clear that your primary gripe is the low SP. So Ironic imo that one of i3e’s biggest critics supported i3e'e plan to help drive the SP (aggressive dividend hikes) ended up having the opposite effect of tanking the share price. And now you have the Gaul to sit in the cheap seats throwing rotten tomatoes !

(*when I sent my previous email to i3e with feedback from many here and on other forums compiling a list of suggestions for improvements - one of the items was on PR - however, I did seek the input from a couple of high level investors in Canada as to whether i3e was any better or any worse than its peers with regards to PR and their response was no. This is kind of my view also - always room for improvement but not noticeably better or worse than many other oilers. So again in my opinion this is just a sound bite you like to peddle because its popular and i3e are an easy punch bag because of the SP)

GGG - Just a reminder of what you said in your previous post:

“as for the 'they've been doing ok', well if you take away the one great deal they pulled off i'd say the sp suggests they're doing a **** job. we are generating +21k low cost & decline production, with little debt, huge reserves in a safe jursisdiction, strong divi, and poo near $90. and yet our mcap is worth just over £150m whilst our canadian peers have increased in value at different multiples to us. that's f@cking far from 'ok' in my books.”

And finished of with:

“perhaps try being a little more objective and realistic tony”

1) “one great deal” – this is incorrect - its been multiple deals – purchase of Toscanna Debt, Purchase of Toscanna & Gain and selling the Harvard assets to fund half the deal, Purchase of Cenovous Assets, Purchase of North Montney Assets, Purchase of additional acreage in Clearwater and Wapiti. Underselling i3e’s achievements and overegging the failures as usual GGG.

2) All of this since June 2020 when they made the first transaction(Toscanna). Prior to this - zero revenue, zero production and $30m in debt. Remarkable turnaround in a short space of time which you don’t seem to recognise.

3) “with little debt” – i3e have about $44m of debt with associated interest costs ($22m net) - not so insignificant. But don’t let facts and figures get in the way of the spin !

4) “21k low cost & decline” so this is true but your over egging it for effect – over half of the production is NGL’s and Gas. If you were to convert to equivalent barrels of oil based on revenue then in effect were producing about 7800 bbl of oil per day

5) “….whilst our canadian peers have increased in value at different multiples to us” – how do you know, you never check any figures. This is not true across the board – particularly for gas weighted producers – take a look at vermillion. I think we are undervalued but not by multiples.

I would suggest that you have not shown any objectivity or realism here and have let your disappointment in the share price get the better of you.

Also your reference to Pantheon is completely irrelevant in the context of valuation – Pantheon is an exploration play with a completely different business model and with different valuation metrics. They have over a billion barrels of contingent resources (nearly all liquids) which could potentially grow by multiples. The risk reward profile there is completely different as are the scale of their potential resources. So it it surprising that they have a higher market cap - not to me.

(an interesting RNS only this morning on this which should yield a reaction in the SP - take a look !)

The're generating lots of free cash flow but unfortunately not at the pricing you state. Production is about 21,000 boepd.

Oil is around 4500 bopd of which 500 bopd is heavy oil (WCS) and sells at Edmonton Light minus $20 i.e. $64 / bbl. The rest of the Oils sells at Edmonton Light which is WTI (not Brent) minus about $3 / bbl i.e. $85

NGL's are about 5500 boepd and sell at about 30% of WTI i.e. $26/bbl

Finally gas which is about 11,000 boepd sells at about $10.50 / bbl

This is the reason flowing barrel metrics are almost completely useless when comparing valuations of Oil & Gas Companies.

"Whilst this company is being run by a mgt team with little interest in driving the sp it will continue to languish......" what a stupid comment, it begs two questions/comments:

1) why wouldn't the management team want to drive up the SP - they have significant holdings themselves. Admittedly not all paid for by themselves but significant all the same.

2) As if it was as easy as having an interest to drive up the SP - multiple things have to come together and that's not even taking into account the vagaries of the market.

Some of your other stupid comments that for some reason fellow posters give you credit for:

"We've also been under-valued against peers on every metric for many years, and now is no different..............Mgt have proven themselves to be incapable of generating value out of great assets"

3 years ago i3e was on the verge of bankruptcy with zero revenue, zero, reserves, zero production and $30m in debt - now its a pretty solid company with a strong balance sheet, paying a decent dividend, good acreage and very decent growth prospects - what the f@ck are you talking about ?

"....so put up the for sale sign" After your last great idea spectacularly tanked - I would be a little bit embarrassed to be lecturing i3e on how to run the business - I think they have done ok.

I have to say I agree with LittleDog. I saw your earlier post that seemed to resonate with quite a few posters here although I have to say I dont understand why - same old rant with very little thought process behind it. Have posters here forgotten that your last "great idea" was to aggressively ramp up the dividend!! This turned out to be a disaster in terms of effect on the share price.

Quite why posters now seem to think you have it cracked as far as what i3e should be doing is beyond me. Sentiment is the biggest single issue here and you are a big negative . The sooner we hit 16p and you can get out - the better it will be for i3e and you can concentrate on your Gold Mine that you have been pushing here.

Anyone that has corresponded with Jim on twitter will recognise the comment below - "enjoy the 13p share price". Couple of other Jim favourites - "retail loser", "enjoy your losses" - yada yada yada.

Quite sad really that someone that likes to think they are seen as an Industry Insider, a peer to public Company CEO's and an Oil Industry expert - is actually seen pretty much everyone else a turkey and laughing stock.

Just for peoples information - Louis/Jim is also posting on the PANR ADVFN BB as Cat33 - how is your cat Jim by the way ?

It wasn't requested by Pantheon either - it came about after you/omj had a twitter exchange with Coldy. But let's see whether it actually happens - you know how Camera shy you are - you never do interviews and prefer to stay in the shadows and hide behind your Daniel Day Lewis poster. My bet is the meeting / interview never happens.

Typically with Jim - there is a paywall, but from the link / free information he has provided here - it should tell you that you should save your money and not spend it on this low value rubbish.

Of more interest is a rumoured meeting between Oilman Jim and Pantheon Resources that he requested - so we may get to see Jim yet ! I would not hold your breath though - I hear Jim is starting to backtrack now that the favoured format appears to be skype or similar - we know how camera shy Jim is !

James - he's not talking about you - you could disappear and no one would miss you ! There are some very good posters here - but your not one of them.

"The original budget for 2023 included an additional nine wells (on top of the 14), which we would now expect to be drilled during H1 next year. Saying this, i3 is not short on drilling locations, with a total inventory of 940 development locations, of which 376 are currently booked. These locations include both gas and liquids rich, type curves ranging from IP rates of 200 to >1,000 boepd, and with returns on investment from 58% through to 400% at US$75/bbl oil and C$3/GJ gas prices. "

This would explain why there are currently no new licences - not sure why they would wait until next year to re-start drilling.

Some other good stuff in the report you did not mention:

Serenity: Earlier in October, Repsol Sinopec announced that it had allowed the licence containing the Tain oil discovery to lapse, describing the project as “no longer …active”. As recently as last year, Repsol Sinopec was talking about preparing for a final investment decision on a 10 mmbbls development, which would see initial production rates of 8,000 bopd. Following i3’s Serenity discovery (c.7 mmbbls recoverable), which is adjacent to Tain, the partners have been investigating options for a joint development, with obvious economies of scale improving the economics of both projects. The exit of RSRUK and its partner Viaro opens the door for i3 to apply for a new licence on Tain, with a view to working up a fresh, consolidated development plan. With i3 being the obvious candidate for Tain, we believe that there is a good chance of an award outside the normal periodic licencing rounds. We would consider such an award a real boost for the chances of monetizing the two discoveries.

Nice spot Stas - where did you come across the report - in the past Tennyson reports could be found in the Investor Section of i3e's website - I dont see it.