Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Perhaps still too early to call the bottom on gas prices and they can be very sensitive to weather conditions, but there are indications that we might be close. AECO averaged a little under CAD 0.80 /GJ in June and it looks like July could average somewhere between CAD 0.90 to CAD 1.00 in July.

Strip prices seemed to have settled down a little with both the Arc Resources newsletter and Gas Alberta Website (links below) indicating that prices should improve from August onwards reaching CAD 2.50 in December and CAD 3.00 in Jan 2025. I3e have manage to place one hedge at CAD 3,20 from Nov 2024.

See Reuters article below on the impact of LNG Canada on Gas exports to the US. At full production sometime in 2025 – it will draw 11% of Canada’s total production which is expected to cut Canada’s exports to the US which will have a positive impact on pricing. 1st LNG shipments could happen before the end of this year!

Referring to the ARC energyinstitute newsletter:

1) Gas exports to US are at record highs (chart 25)

2) Alberta and US Gas demand are at record highs (charts 29 & 30)

3) Canadian gas production has taken a sharp dip down in July vis a vis 2022 & 2023 (chart 31)

4) US production has also taken a dip in Q2 2024 (chart 32)

5) Storage levels seem to be levelling off in Canada earlier than the previous 5 years even though storage levels are at record highs.

Putting the above observations in the context of the Goehring & Rozencwajg Q1 Market Commentary where they postulate that US Gas production is peaking, in addition Oil Sands production is increasing (one of the largest users of Nat Gas in Canada) and additional Gas fired electricity generation is being added in Alberta in 2024 – it appears a very positive backdrop for gas in the months ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-stands-lose-canadian-natural-gas-when-lng-canada-terminal-starts-up-2024-05-03/

https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/240722-Energy-Charts.pdf

https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices

Https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2024.Q1%20Commentary/2024.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary--Final.pdf

Https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2024.Q1%20Commentary/2024.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary--Final.pdf

These guys produce pretty much the best free research on the web - well worth a read. I have extracted a couple of the headlines addressing Oil and Gas fundamentals that offer a different view to some on here.

hptts://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2024.Q1%20Commentary/2024.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary--Final.pdf

"The primary source of non-OPEC oil supply growth (US Shale) has finally crested"

"The Permian, the largest and youngest of the shale plays, now appears to have also peaked"

"The US is set to shift from a prolonged period of acute oversupply to a structural deficit of historic proportions. Although inventories remain high, our models predict they will draw to dangerous levels much sooner than anyone believes possible. Given this backdrop, it is unfathomable to us that US natural gas should trade at a record discount to its energy-equivalent price, even considering two consecutive mild winters. Investors should take note."

This all sound pretty positive to me including for small Companies that produced some of the lowest carbon intensity convention oil in Canada along with 50% Gas !

Allways encouraging to see Director / CEO purchases - I guess it also confirms that no ones ready to farm in this week.

Well there you go - the market not that excited currently.

Its a pretty decent sounding RNS

"I am confident that we will be able to secure a suitable partner on EG-08 to carry us through the drilling of an exploration well on the Barracuda prospect"

Also a pretty bullish comment from Will Holland which I assume he will have not made lightly. It will be interesting to see whether it gets the market excited.

The poster you are referring to is an idiot and known deramper - he was vigourously pushing the notion of a dividend cut despite being pointed to the Companies guidance on not cutting the dividend.

Personally I dont think the oil price weakness experienced over the last couple of days has anything to do with Trump or drill baby drill. First off he's nearly 6 months away from office assuming he gets in in the first place. Secondly , drilling seems to be dictated by Company discipline and the apparent prioritizing of shareholder returns over "drill baby drill". Thirdly there are many view points on Oil such as this one from J P Morgan explaining wy oil could hit $100 this year. Forecast are changing all the time and the current weakness has been attributed to demand concerns particularly China.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/JP-Morgan-Explains-Why-Oil-Prices-Could-Hit-100-This-Year.html#:~:text=WTI%20crude%20oil%20prices%20could,JP%20Morgan%20cited%20by%20Forexlive.

That said investors should listen to many viewpoints and form their own opinion - interesting that you should put much weight from a random poster on a BB over much more considered opinions.

Well Majid doesnt appear to agree with you - quite a positive and upbeat interview:

Https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/interview-with-i3-energy-ceo-majid-shafiq-063a326/

To summarize:

No change in 2024 financial guidance

No change in dividend

No change in capex program

Q1 2025 Simonette drill program potentially a game changer

Although technically the Q1 update are the latest comments on Serenity - the're pretty generic / standard comments- the more telling comments imo are the responses to specific questions on Tain / Serenity during the "Investor Meet Company" Podcast on the 2nd may including the response to this question:

From your YE report - "If the Group is unable to develop its North Sea assets, i3 Energy Plc may not recover its loan and investment into i3 Energy North Sea Limited which could negatively impact the Company’s distributable reserves and ability to pay dividends." The report goes onto say - "The Group considers the risk level to have increased in 2023 due to approaching the September 2024 deadline for FDP on the P.2358 licence." Will i3e have an FDP submitted by September and if not what is the impact and does this affect the dividend ?"

Go to the Investor meet company website to hear the recorded response but in summary:

1) "Discussions with the NSTA are ongoing with no guarantee of a sucessful outcome" of extending Serenity or obtaining the Tain licence.

2) The second part of the response was to do with the dividend where they state that if the "court ordered" restructuring is approved - then no impact to the dividend. The interesting point here is that they did not have to do this restructuring as they already had sufficient distributable reserves. So why did they do it - almost certainly as a precaution in case they have to impair Serenity which would have prevented i3e from paying dividends.

So what does this mean for Serenity - I dont know, but personally i'm less confident now that Serenity will proceed and not helped at all with the new Government.

Officially they have not abandoned any plans for the North Sea -last they said they were in discussion with the NSTA on extension of the license and possible award of Tain.

The latest Capital restructure was also telling - it says to me that they are preparing to abandon the North Sea Assets if they cannot move forward with Tain / Serenity on favourable terms which looks more unlikely day by day.

Back to I3E for a change - Pretty interesting article on I3E/Nat gas

Pretty interesting article

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/balancing-act-the-role-of-natural-gas-in-the-energy-transition-and-emerging-players-670a65a

I’ve seen reports that gas storage will max out in July - so it could be a rough couple of months for AECO. Q3/Q4 looks better but unlike US peers - many Canadian companies are not curtailing production -

You reap what you sow! Seems mad to me !

“The longer no news the more likelihood Marathon farm in.”

Thats an interesting take - usually it’s the opposite.

“Typical emotional response from an investor unable to control their emotions and look at the bigger picture. “

Typical response from a person who thinks they know more than the actually do ! Price decline has nothing to do with Institutions walking the SP down - it’s all to do will lack of “substantive” progress on the financing.

Aside from the technical analysis - of more interest is the fundamental reasons for the decline in SP:

1) updates on financing have not been as "substantive" so far as the market anticipated ?

2) Market is pricing in an equity raise to cover the intermediate financing ?

In David Hobbs we trust.

Agreed the Delt comment was unecessary but I guess I was highlighting that despite your expert prognostications - you do get it horribly wrong from time to time.

Stas - I agree - no divident cut - 100% imo. I think GGG is getting confused with Deltaic which had to take a huge haircut. I hope no one here followed him into that stock.

Hey Jam - I've not seen a sensible post from you yet - do you have anything constructive to add here ?

Https://t.co/1hf0DWhtxb

Pretty interesting tweet on AECO dug up by @IBB_Invest

Https://news.sky.com/story/future-of-new-oil-and-gas-projects-in-uk-thrown-into-doubt-after-landmark-supreme-court-decision-13155934