Member Info for tonynorstrom1

BOTS,

I wont argue with points 1 & 2 - a matter of opinion and you may be right.

Point 3 though is a load of rubbish - the trans mountain pipeline and more specifically the recently opened expansion is a heavy oil pipeline and nothing to do with LNG. The discounts on heavy oil have come down though not yet to the single digits that some thought - still could happen.

You're getting confused with the Coastal Link Pipeline that feeds LNG Canada. As per the links one or two have posted - LNG Canada have started flaring which means they are taking gas into the facility and liquefaction has likely started which should have a positive impact on AECO going forward

Well it won’t be worse than you projected since you

completely stuffed up the hedges. If your going to deramp - get your facts straight ffs!

Not true spike only 25-30% hedges during this preiod - so any increase from these levels will impact revenues positively.

I thought a pretty positive sounnding meeting - It seems like a no brainer to invest here with a short term horizon - 1 to 2 years but as per the Q&A - tax losses expected to last +/- 3 years. After 3 years - the economics change completely including the ability to fund a healthy dividend.

Would be an interesting question to ask how they forecast the business / dividend more than 3 years out making the assumption that Oil and gas prices are at similar or higher levels than today but the tax regime is still in place

Thanks Magla - I took a quick look at Simply Wallstreet just to get an overall feel and an initial screem / comparison of Serica v Enquest .

Enquest

1) relatively high debt

2) loss making

3) Cheap relative to peers on a P/S basis

4) Close to fair value (as calculated by Simply Wallstreet)

5) No Dividend

6) Revenue expected to fall over the next few years

7) Decom liabilities - need to check into this

Serica

1) Net cash

2) Profit making

3) relativey cheap on a P/S of 0.7 though not as cheap as Enquest at 0.2

4) 69% below fair value so very cheap on this measure also cheap on a p/e basis realtive to peers

5) 18% Dividend though a fair chance that this will be cut shortly

6) revenue expected to rise 7% next year

7) Very low decom liabilities relative to peers

Just based on this very quick screen (and i realize that some of the data may not be the latest or 100% correct) - Serica seems more interesting.

I would be interested to hear what anyone else has to say including why they think Enquest might be more appealing than Serica.

Thanks Redbuffet - I took a quick look at Simply Wallstreet just to get an overall feel - you can usually pick up a few ideas although somethimes their information is inaccurate. This is what I gathered after a quick scan:

1) relatively high debt

2) loss making

3) Cheap relative to peers on a P/S basis

4) Close to fair value (as calculated by Simply Wallstreet)

5) No Dividend

6) Revenue expected to fall over the next few years

7) Decom liabilities - need to check into this

Serica on the otherhand

1) Net cash

2) Profit making

3) relativey cheap on a P/S of 0.7 though not as cheap as Enquest at 0.2

4) 69% below fair value so very cheap on this measure also cheap on a p/e basis realtive to peers

5) 18% Dividend though a fair chance that this will be cut shortly

6) revenue expected to rise 7% next year

7) Very low decom liabilities relative to peers

Just based on this very quick screen (and i realize that some of the data may not be the latest or 100% correct) - Serica seems more interesting. What dont you like about Serica ?

I would be interested to hear what anyone else has to say including why they think Enquest might be more appealing than Serica.

I would be interested to hear any thoughts about Enquest v Serica if anyone has any. Looks like similar size Companies both uk focused with the same issue of the EPL.

Stevo,

I'm looking for somewhere to park my cash if and when the i3e deal goes through - I've been running the rule over Serica but came across Enquest after soem comments on another BB. I would be inerested to hear your thoughts about Enquest V Serica if you have any?

Well my 4m shares are voted no.

Surprised,

What broker report are you referring to - do you have a link.

BillNN,

Sorry to hear you are down on Serica. There’s always a bit of luck with investments and the timing including news etc including Labours EPL plans. I think the fall is due to Labours planned tax regime along with a weakening of sentiment in oil and gas prices. At current prices which should have this baked in - imo Serica still looks an interesting proposition even with the EPL although I need to dig into the financials more.

I have looked at Harbour previously but only briefly - I will take another look seeing that it’s been

Mentioned here and stack it side by side with Serica and form a view.

Notsofastyou,

A couple of things for you to bear in mind:

1) you know very little about the circumstances of other people - especially past generations. In fact I suspect you know less than you think you do in general. Get off your high horse and show a bit of humility/

2) Take responsibility for your own successes or failures. From your tone I suspect your successes have been below your expectations - but remember you own them.

3) Remember this is an investment forum - how about staying on topic!

Well i'm still looking to identify something to replace my dividend in i3e shoud the deal go through. Two Companies i'm running the rule over is:

1) Serica.

2) PTAL

Both are paying high double digit dividends which by itself is an indicator that they are at risk of being cut. If they would be cut by 50% they would still be in the +/- 9% range.

Serica looks to be a very well run business with a strong balance sheet. Ive posted my initial thought about them on the Serica LSE BB a few days ago. I have yet to analyse the numbers and see what they might look like going forward.

PTAL ive looked at previously - high dividend, buybacks in progress, very cheap and generating lots of cash. There very cheap because of their location - Peru which might tell you something about why GTE is valued cheaply. The other thing to note is the it looks like GGG has recently bailed - wonder why?

Notsofastyou,

You need to watch your halo doesnt slip down and trip you up. What makes you think you and your generation are harder working and more deserving than past generations?

Anyway - back on topic - do you think the dividend will be cut. One of the questions in the April "investor meet company" was about the sustainability of the dividend and the poster made the statement that current profits did not cover the dividend and buy back program - not sure whether this is correct but it was what was stated.

Would anyone like to share some numbers to demonstrate whether the dividend is covered or not. I suspect that the current yield indicates it is not.

I will run my own numbers shortly to verify myself although its I think its going to be harder to calculate these days factoring in effectice tax rates.

Nomad - look a couple of messages back - it’s there

NewKOTB,

Thanks for the link to the circular. I also went through the Q&A from the April "Investor Meet Company" where Management responded to several questions on the Tailwind Acquisition. At first sight there appeared to be a lot of positives going for the deal:

1) Added a 2nd production hub including export route i.e. reducing risk

2) Added significant scale including improving / balancing the Oil / Gas mix

3) Deal done on accretive metrics significantly adding to per share cashflow, reseves etc

4) Company stated that the assets were hand in glove to existing assets with with little to no overlap and low decom liabilities

5) Tailwind came with +/- $400m of tax loses to offset future tax liabilities.

The only negatives/potential negatives that I picked up from the Q&A :

1) Mecuria now hold 25% of Serica's shares and presumably could make an opportunistic bid - they may or may not and for anyone investing today this may not be an issue as you would assume a bid premium would be required to get a bid approved.

2) Some shareholders appeared to be disappointed that Serica did not make an alternative deal to diversify out of the UK/UK tax regime.

3) Added some debt but appears manageable and figured into the acquisition metrics.

Is this a fair summary of the pros and cons or am I missing something?

Is the worry that they start disposing their shares or that they mount a takeover. For anyone buying shares today - presumably that would be a positive as you would expect a takeover to attract a premium - for LTH its perhaps a different story.

I took a look at the April " Invester meet company " podcast and particularly the Q&A. One thing I noted is the departures of the CFO & CEO - is this a red flag - and were the changes a positive or a negative for the Company. How are the new CFO and CEO rated ?

Mommur,

Thanks for your input. I have only just started to research Serica but at first sight it appears to be pretty well run with a strong balance sheet and a very good record of growing production over the last few years. I'm still trying to get my head around the negativity around Management. I get that the EPL is a massive headwind but obviously beyond the control of Mnagement. The strong growth in production has partially offset the higher tax regime.

Also the big slide in SP over the last 18 / 24 months is not confined to Serica and has a lot to do with the fact that Brent was well over $100 a couple of years ago. Where can I read up on Mecuria and what is happening in September ?

Libear,

The link is on the first page that opens when you sign in i.e. the one that gives you the summary values of your "Stocks & Shares ISA" Account and your "Funds & Share Account". If you look to the right of the bottom row "Total" you will see "view shareholder meetings" - click on this link.