Member Info for tonynorstrom1

The websites working for me.

Did you get a response to your email to them - I also fired off an email - will be interesting to see whether we hear back.

Not sure how it works at A J Bell - at Hargreaves you previously just needed to message them via direct messaging and inform them of your voting instructions - they now have a feature where it pops up under Corporate Actions and you can register you vote online via their platform.

Suggest you contact them and find out - I assume the online A J Bell platform has a direct messaging feature.

Shanta was a slightly different situation - it traded below the offer price for quite a while - it only rose above the offer price when the company postponed the General Meeting amongst rumours that they didn't have shareholder support and the offer would have to be upped in order to close the deal.

In our case i3e have advised that 32% of Institutional and Insiders have agreed to the deal. They need to get 75% of the votes cast in order to approve the deal and as we know a significant proportion of Individual Investors are apathetic when it come to voting meaning there's a pretty decent chance the deal will be approved.

The only way the share price moves above the offer price:

1) A new bidder emerges - this is possible but i'm not holding my breathe. If i3e thought there were better offers out there - why have they recommended the bid?

2) It becomes clear to i3e that they will not achieve the required 75%. Again they've recommended the offer so my assumption is that they are confident it will pass and they have a 32% head start over the no vote.

I'm voting NO with my shares

Thats closer to it - cash portion including the dividend is about 10.68p meaning the balance is made up of about 3.2p in share. 8% of 3.2 means were losing about 0.2 to 0.3p so closer to the 13.6p you state.

Yesterdays closing price is actually 9% down on the $8.66p listed in the RNS which is what the offer is based on.

Good question Tiler and one I was going to ask myself - what companies offer a similar dividend with a similar risk profile and prospects ?

I would like to know so I can switch if necessary to get the dividends.

To answer the question above on why the SP is trading below the offer price - a couple thoughts

1) it’s not an all cash offer - only 10p odd is in cash with the balance in shares.

2) the deal is not certain to go through although there is a high probability since the have already secured 32% of the votes. They need 75% but the fact is there is usually a lot of apathy amongst many individual investors so in my view the deal is more likely to go through than not unless one of the institutions also turns its nose up.

Simon,

I didn’t say “hanging on for a counter offer” - I said hanging on for a tasty dividend and possibly a growing dividend and SP - if a better offer comes in great but I’m not all that excited with 13.9p.

Thats why I will vote no - take the dividends and see what happens after the drill program(if indeed it goes ahead). Still interested to hear your thoughts on why voting no doesn’t make sense to you if you don’t like the offer.

Vernetles,

Why wouldn’t you want the data room announced?

Simon - I cannot recall what I said to you - I hope it was not rude. A question for you - why do you have to accept the offer and what is the reason you will not vote no - what is the down side.

The biggest reason for the run down of the SP has been the collapse / fall of the Gas price over the same period of time. This resulted in a dividend cut and halt in drilling. However the circumstances we now find ourselves in:

1) No debt and a new less restrictive and cheaper debt facility

2) resumption of drilling

3) Much brighter prospects for gas pricing albeit it hasnt happend yet. One piece of news thats been overshadowed here is that LNG Canada is now expected to commence gas exports this year.

4) Dividend that has been pretty much confirmed for this year

So in summary im saying that propects for i3e are looking better than they have in around 18 months and the balance sheet has never been stronger. The offer whilst at a significant premium to the current SP is because its being measured of multi year lows and the 13.9p does not reflect the proper valuation (imo)

My view is that there is a real propect of a higher SP by the end of the year / early next year and I would be happy to take the dividend and see what happens with the Simonette well drilling program which i3e said could be transformative. I'm interested to hear why you think this would not be a good idea.

I agree stas - I think we should all email Majid / i3e and get them to hold another "invester meet the company" to explain how this deal is good for lont term holders and consistent with:

"With a solid half year behind us, we now look forward to our H2 focussed development and drilling programme which has already commenced with the successful drilling of our first operated well in Central Alberta. Our team will be busy during the second half of the year with back-to-back drilling across our portfolio, which will set the Company up for the commencement of our Montney development drilling in Q1 2025 for which we now are evaluating asset backed debt financing solutions to accelerate development."

I would encourage all shareholders to vote. Imo - there is no down side to voting no - if it doesnt go through - you can continue to collect the 10% divident with the real prospect of the SP climbing later in the year / next year not to mention it might encourage a higher offer.

"There is no point in trying to vote down the offer." - This is nonesense im my opinion - if you dont think the offer represents fair value - then you should vote it down. I dont think there is any downside and may actually help encourage an improved offer.

I get that it may not succeed because of Institutional and BOD support plus apathy from voters such as yourself - but I think there is very little downside to voting it down and its easy to vote.

Its been stuck for some time because of a couple of reasons:

1) Dividend Cut

2) Low Gas Prices

3) A restrictive debt facility with $28m of debt

4) No drilling

These cloud have either been lifted or about to be lifted - i.e. drilling restarted, no debt, AECO prospects looking more promising and a dividend which was pretty much confirmed for the rest of the year with reasonable prospects that it could have been increased next year. With drilling success and improving AECO - I think 15p could have been a realistic prospect by the end of the year and higher next. I'm struggling to see the merits of the deal - I would have taken my chances collecting the dividend and see where the SP goes next year.

Not a great offer - I wish that they would do another "Investor Meet the Company" podcast to explain the deal and take Investor questions on why they are recommending what looks like a low ball offer. The offer values i3e at just over $11,000 per flowing barrel. I woukd have thought it would take around $16,000 minimum for investors to think they have got a half decent offer. Remember the recent Royalty Assets were sold at something like $60,000 per flowing barrel - not a like for like comparison but still an indicator that 13.9p is not great - I wonder whether their hand has been forced by the institutions.

imo - its a no lose proposition for long term shareholders to vote against the deal - that's what i'll be doing. One small hope is that another bid comes out of the woodwork but i'm not holding my breath.

Https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2018/market-snapshot-where-does-canada-store-natural-gas.html

"The combined capacity of all underground storage facilities in Canada is 949 Bcf. The majority of this capacity (548 Bcf) is located in Alberta..."

https://twitter.com/JamieHeard5/status/1824091700228239551/photo/1

Interesting graphs from Jamie Heard - whilst the plateau has not been reached as per the graphs I posted several weeks ago indicated might be happening in the coming weeks - it does look the the rate of growth might be slowing and we might avoid the nightmare of full storage.

Stas20 - you've seem to have done a complete 180 on this share and now appear to be one of its most ardent supporters. I still think there is lots of potential here but I have cooled a litte bit. David Hobbs coming on board, refreshing the strategy and buying a lot of stock was one of the reasons I jumped on board but his halo has slipped an inch or two imo in the last month or so. He has failed to deliver on the much talked about substative news on the financing package by the end of June. it still may happen but its a deadline missed which begs the question on what has changed from when he made the earlier promises.

There is a difference in production mix - i3e produce about 4000 bopd (oil) whereas Crew produce about 6100 bopd (condensate) which usually sells at a small premium to oil. i3e produce about 5200 boepd (NGL's) v Crew who produce 2400 boepd. If you convert the NGL's to equivalent barrels of oil based on price then i3e would produce about 5500 bopd (oil) v 6800 bopd for crew - about 23% more.

Crew produce just over double the gas that i3e produce. Adjusting for all this still indicates that i3e trades at a significant discount to Crew. I think the press release said that the offer which was all shares was made at a premium of 76% .

It would not be too much of a stretch to think that an offer for i3e could be made at a 100% premium to the current 9p which in my opinion would still undervalue i3e if AECO ever picks up.

Https://x.com/rockcreekfreak/status/1819881850644680875

updated charts provided by @rockcreekfreak

I'm personally not expecting too much from the Q2 update - according to BOEReport.com - they have only spud one well so far in June in Willesden Green and its not yet in production. So production is going to be down as is net operating income. Production may have also dipped below 18,000 boepd depending upon what production may have been shut in. Comparing Q1 actuals to my forecast:

--------------Q1-------------------Q2

BOEPD----19,400-----------18,300

WTI-------$77.00------------$80.50

AECO----CAD 2.35------- -CAD 1.11

NOI------£12.6m-------------£10.1m

The one bright spot could be the effect of the asset sale on net income - depending on the carrying value, its likely that a gain will be booked increasing net income.

Https://seekingalpha.com/article/210409-liquid-rich-natural-gas-plays-are-the-hot-commodity-for-institutional-investors

An old article but still very much applicable. Remember that many of i3e's wells drilled in Central Alberta and Wapiti/Elmworth are liquids rich gas wells.

This guy's Twitter page is well worth a visit. According to his profile, he works for Tourmaline as well as having worked for Banks and Hedge Funds in the past so he appears to know his onions ! Coincidently, Tourmaline is the largest Nat Gas producers in Canada.

Whats interesting is his post below states that the price drop is Canada is primarily due to the inventory build in the prior winter months and not whats going on now. The graph he included shows that the rate of inventory growth this summer is the 7th or 8th slowest out of the last 10 years. So whilst production is at a record and increasing, demand growth has been increasing at a faster rate relative to most prior years. This perhaps contradicts the narrative that Canadian Producers have zero discipline. Takeaway:

If this years winter is average to colder than average, it should be very positive for AECO pricing particularly with LNG Canada start-up imminent along with the commissioning of additional gas fired electricity generation.

@JamieHeard5

Such a good way to show how the summer '24 gas price chop is a function of a non-winter behind it, not a overproduced summer. LNG demand ramping over the next 12 months + the potential of 'normal' winter weather ahead will ask a lot more of the industry (acitivity / production) than its being asked of now.

https://twitter.com/Ronh999/status/1816482386953056663/photo/1