Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Licencing Round 33 refers specifically to the North Sea so definitly nothing to do with the Irish Licence and I think the RNS even refers to this.

i3e have not issued an RNS - so nothing to do with Serenity either. Vernetles on the i3e BB said it referred to a licence just north of Tain.

Key takeaways:

1) A strong presentation and highlighted how prudently i3e is being managed - imo

2) Potential for a further sale of non core assets - I would not be expecting i3e to generate anything like they did with the royalty production because I think they maybe none producing - but cash is cash !

3) i3e sitting at a 45% discount to peers on a PDP basis per Majid - this should narrow significantly imo as gas prices improve

4) Capex program promising a very strong end to the year and an even better 2025

5) Line fill complete on the coastal link pipeline. They would not have done this if the LNG plant was not expected to take gas very shortly - they would have left the line under purge otherwise. So we can expect commissioning of LNG Canada shortly i.e. line fill within the plant, start up of the cooling facillity and tank fill in preparation for LNG shipments.

NoOneKnows,

That appears to be the current situation now i.e. they own a 30% share of the licence but are unable to stump up the £5m.

Well this is what WH Ireland made of it:

Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Independent Resource Report on

Alkaid Horizon, Ahpun Field

Market Cap £337.7m Share Price 36p

Pantheon Resources announced that Lee Keeling & Associates (“LKA”) has ascribed the Alkaid Horizon, consisting of the smallest and deepest development candidate of the Ahpun field, 79 mmb of recoverable reserves and resources (5million barrels of possible reserves and 74 million barrels of contingent resources).

For reference, the resource appraisal consists only of the deepest development horizon at Ahpun and excludes the Ahpun Topsets, which is considered to have superior reservoir potential and scale (and of course excludes the resource potential of the Kodiak field).

The appraisal was premised on prior well/geophysical/seismic data and the additional data from the 90-day flow test of the Alkaid-2 well drilled in 2022.

LKA estimated the base case NPV10 of the field (pre-Federal tax) to be $200m, with a high case valuation of $526m – conditional on success and project development.

The company stated it is expecting a report from Cawley Gillespie on the Ahpun Topsets (and the newly awarded Eastern Extension) with better reservoir properties in the coming weeks.

WHI View: We have long-held the view that Ahpun has the strategic potential to kick-start self-funded growth given its proximity to infrastructure. By virtue of circumstance, the company firstly assessed the resource potential of the supergiant Kodiak field – albeit we believe it is likely that Ahpun is developed first. Therefore it is critical that updated resource definition is coming in for Ahpun, allowing the company to assess developmental strategies. Today’s update

combined with the forthcoming resource assessment for the Ahpun Topsets will provide a relatively comprehensive resource coverage of the company for the first time in years, in combination with the assessments of Kodiak – which will be very helpful for investors and the analyst community. The resource updates, we believe, represent important milestones that we expect to build further on the company’s positive trajectory.

Got it - so I assume that you understand the RNS fully - can you outline what the market has missed if anything or is it just a case of PANR making an incremental step forward?

From Simply Wall St this morning - an automatically generated report that does not appear to recognize that i3e is an Oil Company and that profit margins are down due to Oil & Gas prices.

Ocassionally they come up with some interesting ideas but often the report is more useful for putting under the cat litter tray in the kitchen!

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%.

• Net profit margin: 10%

• Last year net profit margin: 20%

This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin.

Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company:

Minor Risks

• Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (147% cash payout ratio).

• Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change).

• Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (10% net profit margin).

There is a new broker note out this morning - anyone have access to it and mind posting ?

Spike,

You highlighted i3e are not analagous to Shell - are you suggesting that i3e are analagous to Repsol ?? There are two reasons why Repsol walking away from Tain doesnt necessarily mean much to i3e:

1) Repsol have stated their desire to exit the NS - i3e have not (currently)

2) Tain would have been a small development for Repsol not really moving the needle plus the money is probably better spent outside of the UK consistent with their new direction. A tain / Serenity development would be sizeable for i3e and would move the needle.

"Do you believe anyone would pay cash to I3E now for the Serenity licence?" - I dont think so. Majid has previously said that you would need an approved FDP in order to realize any value if I recall correctly. A Tain + Serenity with an approved FDP maybe worth something. I'm not saying it definetly is but maybe and I think this is what i3e are looking at. Serica or Ithaca (cannot remember which) recently bought an asset that was of similar size to Tain / Serenity with the clear intention of developing.

Anyway - sign up to the investor meet Company presentation and ask a couple of questions!

"Fantastic news" - why is the market reaction luke warm ?

"However it’s pretty clear that no one in the North Sea is buying undeveloped assets for upfront cash payments so in that sense it’s worthless as it stands."

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ithaca-cambo-shell/

After a 10 second search - here is one example of ithaca buying undeveloped assets - Its a reasonable bet that there are other examples

An impairment charge is going to lead to a loss albeit a non-cash charge - no paper profits, no retained earnings, no dividend.

Except that the latest capital structure can offset the reduction in retained earnings/distributable reserves and enable the payment of dividends.

I3e are currently earning more than sufficient cash to fund a dividend - thats the way I see it !

Bottomsup - I trust the comment was made tongue in cheek. Some may have a problem with you starting a DELT thread on the i3e BB and then telling others to stick with i3e - please tell me you were talking tongue in cheek !

DELT is also a usefull reminder to any investor particularly new investors that there are no certs on the AIM. HIGH RISK / high return. Many have ignored the high risk part of the equation including myself in the past.

I followed the DELT story from a distance and reading some of the posts on their BB - I thought the farmout was nailed on. Was that the case and something has changed in the last few weeks or was the chance of a farmout over hyped on the the DELT BB. I dont know the answer but this highlights the need for every investor to do the necessary DD and not blindly accept what is posted on a BB.

DELT - down 40% as I type. It would be interesting to hear whether GGG is going to hold tight or cut his losses and get out. The RNS was a poor read and is anything going to change between now and the end of May ?

There are no slam dunks when it comes to financing / farmouts - we'll see shortly how the SP reacts.

On a similar note - I'm beginning to lean towards the view that Serenity may be a dead duck - a couple of snippets from the YE report:

"There is a high cost associated with a field development plan and therefore it is contingent upon raising the necessary funds. There is uncertainty whether a one well development of the field would be commercial, and it is likely to require access to thirdparty production, processing, and transportation facilities. If the Group is unable to develop its North

Sea assets, i3 Energy Plc may not recover its loan and investment into i3 Energy North Sea Limited which could negatively impact the Company’s distributable reserves and ABILITY TO PAY DIVIDENDS. See Financial Statements note 3 where the carrying value of intangible exploration and evaluation assets has been identified as a critical accounting judgement."

"The Group considers the risk level to have increased in 2023 due to approaching the September 2024 deadline for FDP on the P.2358 licence."

The good news for i3e is I think the market has already written off Serenity and if it does not advance - then it should spark an effort to trim uk costs which would be a positive.

Also possibly explains why i3e undertook another Capital Restructure so soon after the previous one - i.e. to offset the impairment charges and allow the payment of dividends.

First of all I inferred that Shubham Garg had increased his holding - I did not say that he had "doubled" his holding. My only reference to "doubled" was in reference to weighting within the fund .

"You have zero knowledge that Shubham doubled his position in i3 Energy" - I do have knowledge , not by how much but I do know he has added and now the weighting is 7% up from around 3% previously . I have not mislead anyone.

Hedges are listen in todays RNS - read down nearer to the end.

Hard to say Jezzo - I would say though its probably a disagree - I think there a fews things that could bump this up before next winter.

Returning to the results:

1) Absolutely no surprises - they had already previoulsy guided on YE NOI, debt and Cash and the results were entirely consistent with this guidance. A couple of people (actually mainly one) on the ADVFN BB were commenting on the profits collapsing but again this should not have been a surprise to anyone running the numbers and in fact in WHI's report from a few days ago had the same number for 2023 .

2) There were a few things that I thought were positive - tax and SG&A were lower than I plugged into my model.

3) De-Commissioning provisions ticking down nicely

4) Gas Hedges - i3e have place gase Hedges in the CAD 2.70 range for production April through November 2024. There are hedges at CAD 3.00 / GJ from November 2024 onwards - so this is counterparties actually putting money on the line betting that Gas will be above these levels later in the year.

IBB_INVEST,

With respect - whilst your post is correct to point out that that Razor Energy had gone bust and therefore would affect the weightings of the remaining stocks in the portfolio, its incorrect in respect to suggesting that Shubham Garg has not increased his holdings in i3e . Refer to the twitter post below with a snap shot of the portfolio from January v April and you will note:

1) Razor Energy was only an 8% holding in January and missing in April. I3e went from 3% to 7% - i.e. it more than doubled. Surge Energy his second biggest holding went from 20% to 28% i.e. went up only 40%. A similar situation can be observed with other holdings

2) Vermillion was not in the portfolio in either January of April so had zero impact on the wighting during this period

3) Obsidian was in the Portfolio in January but missing in April. The SP appreciated significantly in this period - not sure what he did with the cash but it looks like he may have redeployed into i3e and other names - regardless he appears to have increased his stake significantly in i3e.

Its right to point out that he doesnt walk on water and it looks like he has made one or two bad calls but I dont think its by accident that he's ploughed more money into i3e which looks like a solid play.

https://twitter.com/search?q=white%20tundra%20until%3A2024-04-28%20since%3A2024-02-01&src=typed_query

For what its worth - it appears that Shubham Garg has upped his stake from 3% to around 7% in his White Tundra Portfolio, Shubham is one of the most knowledgeable Investors / Investors in the canadian Oil & Gas space - so quite a vote of confidence.

Picked up by Canuck on the CEO CA website - one of his more useful contributions !

Believe what you wish - despite the UK not being the most favourable jurisdiction - companies are still drilling and developing assets in the North Sea - even assets of the scale of a Tain + Serenity.

I'm pretty neutral on Serenity - if i3e decide to drop the licence - thats ok by me - if they decide to keep it and try to extract some value - so be it. I trust the BOD to make the right decision and imo they wont make that decision until they see what happens with Tain.