Member Info for tonynorstrom1

No. I’ve just decided that that I prefer to hear about top slicing and target prices than the tit who keeps telling us how many shares he has and popping champagne corks every 5 minutes !

I like your optimism Vernet - pity the market does not share it …..,yet!

Riley - it seems a few here are not that interested in hearing about your trading but probably would be interested in links to the analyst reports forecasting a 37% fall in SP - care to share ?

The trading updates are almost as irritating as the dude who keeps wanting to pop a champagne bottle every morning!

How do we know that sittingbush - the CEO said it could be more - im confused !

Gullible perhaps - but it's better than being a tit - aka David 85

hey and it's not my Company!

Assuming a deal goes through - which CEO would lead the group and who would you want to lead the group?

malcy doesn't agree with you david my old ****er !

"when i selected deltic for the bucket list i knew it could be quite a ride, ‘it is clearly at the biggest discount to tp of 200p by a mile following the pensacola trauma but management should be given huge credit for carrying on with the selene project’.

the board clearly agree and ‘the magnitude of the divergence between the market cap and the valuation of the selene gas project is a cause for frustration’. one of the reasons is government policy which remains vindictive and incredibly short sighted, imagine killing a golden goose that can pay a very reasonable long term tax contribution to a cash short treasury whilst at the same time providing the domestic gas market with best in breed low carbon gas saving on trade deficit into the bargain.

selene is looking like being a cracking project, full of value with its great economics that as i have said will contribute to both the treasury and balance of trade, 50/- mmcfd is no mean production and with 130m bcf of reserves that we don’t have to buy from despots and dictators abroad makes you sleep at night.

there is little doubt that a degree of trust will be needed over the funding process but don’t tell me that a project like selene can’t work and be developed profitably, with potential from endymion and of course blackadder in their own way adding contributions. deltic is a well managed store of value, it should be held at least until the market susses it out although the relevant ministers may take a little longer to ‘get it’ but value there is indeed…."

Do not panic - let’s see what Malcy has to say!

Well at least it doesn't appear to be Jim himself posting under a false name - who here remembers good ole Louis10 !

Here's my analysis:

Barrels............Price/bbl Dilution Target Price Target Price

1,500,000,000 $1.50 40.00% $1.17 £0.95

1,500,000,000 $2.00 30.00% $1.83 £1.47

2,000,000,000 $3.00 25.00% $3.91 £3.16

2,500,000,000 $4.00 25.00% $6.52 £5.26

2,500,000,001 $5.00 25.00% $8.15 £6.57

2,500,000,002 $6.00 25.00% $9.78 £7.89

Just playing with some numbers to come up with a few target prices under a couple of different scenarios. PANR's $5 & $10 are NPV10 numbers based on $70 & $80 oil- cannot recall whether it was Brent or Alaskan Crude prices. Personally, I think $5 & $10 maybe too optimistic but who knows !

Not really - Jim is a chancer selling a paid news letter. Anyone that has followed him knows that he just regurgitates news items / RNS’s and offers zero original insight - but hey ho - if that’s your thing - go for it !

Good post Megla - there does seem to be a compelling rationale behind the deal.

I'm fairly new to Serica and bought in because of the generous dividend, low valuation, low decom costs, low net debt and significant tax losses. What would these attributes look like for the combined group and in particular the dividend - would the combined group pay out a dividend in excess of 10%?

I'm also fascinated by the continuing bashing of the Tailwind deal - being new to Serica, I do not have the same background into the deal as many or indeed had to watch the SP steadily decline over the last year or two - which was not unique to Serica by the way - but Tailwind looked like a pretty good deal to me - it brought significant tax losses and balanced the production mix more in favour of gas.

What is the latest update from your mates at the boozer?

For sure there is an element of risk - one is the cost - as has been discussed by the Governor of Alaska amongst others - the FEED (Engineering) still needs to be done to come up with a current cost estimate. Pipeline costs can escalate quickly particularly in North America.

We do have a decent Analogue - the Coastal Link Pipeline for LNG Canada. Comparing metrics - the current Estimate ($11B) appears to be in the right ball park. Coastal Link took nearly 5 years to build - was 870 km long and 48” dia - so longer and bigger dia than Alaska. Cannot comment knowledgeably on the topography which impacts construction costs but weather won’t be too dissimilar.

Straight from the RNS on the Sales Precedent Agreement in June 2024 - note the units - mm = million, m = thousands and I dont know what fc is - cf = cubic feet. So the initial agreement is to supply up to 0.5 bcfd (half a billion cubic feet per day). For reference LNG Canada which is close to exporting its first cargo is a 14 million tons per year facility producing from 2 trains. That requires about 2 bcfd of gas . Alaska LNG I think is a 20 million ton per year facility requiring up to 3.5 bcfd of gas.

"Pantheon agrees to supply up to 500 million cubic feet per day ("mmcfd") of natural gas at a maximum base price of $1 per million BTU ("mmBtu") in 2024 dollars."

I think your units are wrong. If you look at the Alkaid Well results - well flowed from a partially blocked bore at around 500 bopd - liquids i.e. Oil + NGL’s. Gas oil ratio was in the order of 3000 - 4000 putting gas production at about 1.5mmcf/d (1.5 million avg/day)

Oh - ok. I agree that upsizing the bond is a vote of confidence in PANR. I was just making the point that the reasons appear to be well spelled out in the RNS.

I don’t think it suggests any of that - the wording in the RNS appears pretty explicit (imo)

Buybacks are not working now because they are small scale and are all going to fund Management options - so no benefit to regular shareholders.

Buybacks have to be meaningful - as Nuttal says - what is the value of the last share! There's also a tax advantage to returning capital via buybacks versus dividends. I like the dividend also!

If they continue executing - the SP has to move up particularly once they get past the funding of the erosion control measures. Also if the ONP pipeline ever gets back in service - this will be a mini game changer for PTAL.

The negatives have traditionally been Geography and local unrest. With whats happening in the UK and Europe - you can argue that geograpghy is no longer a negative vis a vis these jurisdictions. Local unrest is a bit of a wild card but Petroltal appear to be managing this with their social fund.

PTAl in my opinion appears a decent place to park your money with the excellent dividend and a resonable prospect of capital appreciation.

"Been away for a couple of days just come back to a drop what the reason?"

There was a little bit more selling pressure than buying pressure - hope that helps !

"To simplify - A piece of fillet steak moves from a butcher, to a chef to a waiter to the eater."

FFS - we need some news bad - real bad !

Well Eric Nuttal is convinced on the effectiveness of share buybacks and has previously provided the research / numbers to back it up.

First off the shares have to be cheap - I think most here will agree that PTAL shares are cheap. Secondly, it has to be a meaningful buyback - not the token buyback PTAL are doing not to mention the shares they do buy are eaten up by share awards to management with over half going to the CEO alone.

The other consideration is whether they have a better use of cash which they probably do - some of their wells are paying out in a little over 3 months.

If they run out of high impact wells or they max out on takeaway capacity - then I think they should go all out on buybacks (with a market leading dividend). Just my 2 cents worth - dyor !