Member Info for tonynorstrom1

for someone that said he was closing out his position today and moving on - what a "strange character" to be still here posting irrelevant rubbish!

to point out how anal you are being:

1) the objective at megrez was to complete a flow test program (6 separate horizons) in a “capital efficient manner” to prove commercial oil. they have achieved the first part of this by testing directly (3 horizons) or indirectly by eliminating tests no longer necessary. mission accomplished and indeed they issued an rns stating “pantheon resources …..today announces the completion of megrez-1 flow testing”. this is the first key take away.

2) the second and most important take away - no commercial oil.

3) however, you took max out of context on comments he made around testing schedule. whether you were right or wrong – no one gives a **** except you as it wasn’t important!

4) and finally they eliminated 1 very expensive frack due to the probability of failure so no idea what you are going on about fracking for - seemed like a very sensible and capital efficient decision to me. like i said – all very anal but of course you cannot see it!

Abacus - dont be a prat now - do a Larry Grayson and off you go - I've said my piece - there is nothing more to say to you!

Jungle Jim,

I've held tight and I actually think they did a good job of explaining their decisions and the timing of their communications - all very professional and methodical in my opinion but there were no magic answers that are going to re-build trust overnight and cause this to boom at 8am tomorrow morning - again in my opinion.

I agree with Stas that the "Show me well" must come in. The good news is that it is a completely separate structure and that they've already proved that the oil flows so a completely different situation to Megrez. The objective now is to prove that a long lateral well (5000 to 10,000 ft) will deliver commercial flows which they have already done by simulation and comparison to similar wells. Now they have to prove with an actual demonstration well (Show me well) as requested by the Company running the proposed pipeline project / feed. They've characterized this well as "low risk". Of course many here will be naturally skeptical and will want to see this before they have any faith in what the company says and hence will take time to recover trust. If they manage it we could well see a 100p plus SP this year.

Abacus - revisionist and Anal is how I would characterise you - your post wasn't worth the read - now be a good chap and close your position as you said and shut the door on the way out !

Jungle Jim - are you serious - what's going to make it boom tomorrow?

The only catalyst between now and then is the upcoming Pod Cast and I cannot imagine what they can say that will restore confidence overnight. But no need to pre-judge - we'll soon here what they have to say! Interesting - very interesting !

Ok Stas - I understand what you have done now but that's not how the Investment Analysts do it - they will take the full 2P or 2C resources / reserves and do a discounted CF - to arrive at an NPV10 and then apply a % against it depending on their assessment of various factors - so not an exact science as the % is quite subjective. Its hard to say whether what you have done is realistic. My gut - feel is that your approach is too conservative.

Looking at the two analyst numbers I posted earlier - you have a current target price of 43p to 73p. I know that these analysts typically err on the optimistic side but cutting their number in half still gives you a range of about 22p to 37p which imo is more realistic - but hey what do I know.

"If you assume a risked valuation of 300–500 million barrels at $1–$2/bbl, you get a market cap of around £80–£160m — that’s about 10p–20p per share"

I don't understand Stas - why would you assume 300-500 million barrels - the audited 2C resources is 1.6B liquids and 6TCF of gas ?

"What Assets?"

Extracts from a Zeus Report a short while ago:

"Focus now switches to development, with the Dubhe-1 well to drill in 2025. Pantheon has discovered a significant amount of oil and gas on its Alaska leases, 1.6bn bbl of liquids and over 6tcf of gas on a 2C basis. This is more than enough to support a development project, and we now expect the company to shift its focus to concentrate on this. The first step here is drilling of the Dubhe-1 demonstration well, with activities expected to begin this summer. The results from the well will help Pantheon with its first phase development design, but should also provide important data for the proposed Alaska LNG export project and associated pipeline, which Pantheon’s production would be expected to support."

"....No change to forecasts. We update our valuation to significantly adjust our value for Ahpun East (Megrez-1), and this sees our total risked NAV move from 86p to 73p. "

The report also has a table which is not reproducible here that calculates a total unrisked valuation of 330p a share.

"What Assets" - whilst I was typing my "last" post - a couple of analyst reports can in which I wanted to share (extracts). First one is from Oak Securities - Brendan Long:

We speculate that an updip fault may have been non-sealing allowing movable oil volumes to escape while leaving immobile, irreducible oil volumes within the tested horizons. Reducing our chance of success for the well from 20% to nil has the effect of reducing our target price from 122.5p to 48.6p. The result also refocuses the valuation on the company’s main prize, namely, its lower risk contingent resources consisting of 1.6 billion barrels of recoverable liquids and 6.6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas (as ascribed by recognized third party resource evaluators).

Compartmentalized Resources: We highlight that Pantheon Resources has discovered and appraised 2C resources from the Kodiak field (1,208 million barrels of recoverable liquids; 5,396 billion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas – as estimated by Netherland Sewell & Associates), Ahpun West (282 million barrels of recoverable liquids and 804 billion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas – as estimated by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates) and AhpunAlkaid (79 million barrels of recoverable liquids; 424 billion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas – as estimated by Lee Keeling & Associates).

The company’s resources are compartmentalized and unaffected by the results at the higher-risk Megrez-1 exploration well. The company indicated that it intends to drill a long-reach, multi-stage fracked “show-me” appraisal well at Ahpun West to unlock the latent value of that field. Our full pershare success case valuation estimates for Kodiak, AhpunWest and Ahpun-Alkaid amount to 212.6p, 125.3p and 22.6p, respectively (totalling 360.5p). Robust support from US Administration – strong momentum: President Trump, Energy Secretary Wright, Secretary of the Interior Burgum and Alaska’s Governor Dunleavy have all recently, robustly and publicly endorsed the development of a natural gas pipeline and LNG project that would, in our opinion, only be optimally developed with the associated gas of Pantheon Resources’ liquids developments. In early April, Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba announced his country’s interest in backing a $44 billion Alaskan gas pipeline and LNG project. Since then, Taiwanese and South Korean officials have likewise formalised their strong interest in the project. We believe that strong political, geopolitical and economic momentum supports the Pantheon Resources investment thesis, premised on its contingent resources.

My last post here until after I listened to the podcast later today but a couple of comments:

1) I think the Management Team can be fairly criticized for the communications pre - Megrez flow tests . PANR in hindsight have over hyped Megrez and probably did not caution Investors enough on the risks.

2) With regard to the criticism today on swapping and changing the test program - I think the comments are off base. The result today clearly imo validates the decision not to frack the previous horizon conserving SH funds. One of the issues is that this was not a single flow test but up to 6 and they made a decision early on to announce the results immediately as they came available. This was the right call imo otherwise they would have been open to news leaks and insider trading. Given that there was up to 6 tests consecutively - its common sense to me that you take on board the results and modify the program accordingly. It would have been madness to frack the previous horizon as initially planned as this would have cost millions. As soon as the result is known they announce, then it can take a few days or weeks to fully analyse the result and the impact it may have on the following steps.

3) As we speak the (10:10am) the SP is down just over 16% to 22.3p. Quite a nasty shock but not a complete disaster - If you go back over the last year or so the SP has been lower than it is now and it has also been HIGHER even before Megrez and that ignores the progress made on the Gas pipeline and the support of the US & Alaskan Government. Whilst the SP could drift lower today and over the coming days and weeks I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the reaction here is overdone and we could see upside in the coming days and weeks as the project develops - we may even see some recovery today if the market agrees the fall is overdone. IMO PANR's assets are not fully priced in but clearly confidence has been lost and needs to be restored in order for the SP to recover - maybe its starts with the call today ?!

Serenstar - its not shocking and misleading at all. They amended their testing schedule based on the results - with the speed they zipped through the last couple of tests - its highly probable that they could have completed testing on all zones in the next week or so which would have been consistent with what max said in the last "Investor meet Company" podcast. However, based on results they made what looks like a sensible decision and curtailed the program.

Whats shocking is that you seem to suggest they should have proceeded with testing of all zones ignoring results from previous flow tests ???

Abacus - another consolation is that when you close out your position today - we wont have to put up with your anal disingenuous posts anymore.

You must think everyone here is stupid - you weren't bearish - I don't know anyone that is bearish and then buys into a stock unless they are playing games. Your main gripe a week or so ago is your anal posts on the CEO's comments on testing schedule which were proved to be incorrect. Now your trying to rewrite history and pretend that your forecast this result.

Do everyone a favour - close your position and shut the door behind you.

Abacus - I dont think I anyone is saying this is an acceptable result - it's obviously very disappointing. However, Megrez was always the cherry on top of the cake - a large one but a cherry, nevertheless.

Two things have happened that have made Megrez a little less important than it was say 3 months ago:

1) the timeline on the EIA looks like it can be dramatically reduced

2) apparent progress on the pipeline

both these things swing the focus back onto Alphun which was always the main prize and is critical to the pipeline.

If there is any consolation - it's that they zipped through the testing schedule pretty quickly demonstrating that you had absolutely no clue what you were talking about !

Serenstar - when you get new data - you have to amend your plan accordingly. I like a Company that reacts quickly to changing data and not bury their heads in the sand !

It will be interesting to see how the SP reacts - on the one hand, not totally unexpected, but on the other some undoubtedly held out hope that this one would flow oil.

It’s been a great stock to trade for those with skills at trading and this results offers another opportunity as I suspect this will be trading much higher on news of a positive demonstration well.

Abacus1 - If you want to see what a post looks like that's adds a bit of insight and is worth reading - take a look at Olderwisers latest post. Your effort is predictable and yet again disappointing and quite frankly not worth the read.

I suspect Olderwiser has been talking to people in the know because I think this is what Max is going to be talking about tomorrow. If you go back several presentations, you'll see the original rationale for prioritizing Megrez but with apparent progress on the Gas Pipeline - it appears that the priority is now shifting towards the Dubhe demonstration well.

I was interested to hear what our in-house experts here had to say about the latest test results. There are certainly one or two here that are quite technical but not a peep!

It will certainly be interesting to hear what they have to say - I would be pleasantly surprised if they were able to say anything that will positively impact the SP - it's all about the flow test.

I suspect we're going to hear a lot about Oil Wet v Water Wet reservoirs tomorrow and it appears that the first two horizons tested were Oil Wet. If the next one is oil wet as well - it may not flow oil even though permeabilities and porosities are much better. Anyway - let's hear what they have to say - they certainly have some explaining to do with many apparently feeling that they have been misled.

Obviously not!

Baf3,

There's a touch of "its easy to be clever in hindsight" about your comments and I'm not sure your right in any case . The bond is convertible at $0.8675 in 3 years time - if were not at or above this by 2028 - something has gone wrong and you've backed the wrong horse anyway.

Also - any raise would probably have been at significantly less than 70p . As the question in tomorrows call and see what David Hobbs has to say.