Member Info for Tommo1985

The price of oil is being held down by:

A) Chinese lockdowns
B) Risk - war ending, increased production, new production, renewables, windfall taxes, global economy
C) recency bias - been -$30+ in the past year, not really had an oil crisis since the 70’s.
D) lack of shortage in recent times - used to plentiful production from Russia et al.
E) hedges outstanding reducing income
F) price caps in many countries / storage etc.

The actual price of oil hasn’t yet shown itself due to the driving season not yet being upon us, sales of strategic reserves from Biden/others, Russian production not totally closed off, Chinese lockdowns lowering demand, hedges on ENQ production etc.

If all those things land… Enquest is in a very strong position. Even at current price it’s making $60+ per barrel x 50000 barrels a day x 365 or fcf of about $1.1bn a year…

Think

Given BP and Shell are on a PE of about 8-10 I think getting RHK on a similar PE despite their assets being in the falklands, is very hopeful. Likely PE ratio say 3-6.

All that said I do hold a chunk here, and from OM arbitration and building producing well, I would expect £1+ from here.

But don’t work on a PE of 10. Can’t see that happening.

I’ve just bought another £1k here now holding £3k.

Fwiw any arbitration award could be multiples of the current m/cap and given it’s on a no win no fee basis the lawyers will be very keen to get the award enforced.

Hopefully ENQ stays at this level for a few more days, until payday for me as I want some more.

Realistically oil isn’t going to drop, especially once the EU ban Russian oil and Biden finishes selling off their strategic reserve. Particularly when ENQ finishes selling its hedged stuff (or gets rid of low priced ones) this should do really well.*

*assuming they don’t screw up the production.

Not content with 4 trillion shares, Harry feels the need to get to 5 trillion. The greatest confetti issuer in the land it’s Harry by 10 furlongs!

Indeed. Rockhoppers share of 50,000 barrels a day is say 17,500 x 365 days x $50 profit per barrel = $320m a year profit.

If we get lucky from OM award and debt financing then costs to shareholders will be minimal.

Well it was generating $65m a month fcf in Jan and Feb with lower oil prices. So now maybe 80-90m a month depending on production and open costs. Also cf any costs of maintaining/increasing production - capex. $3m a day maybe a little too much but is the number I’m working with in most of my maths.

Nice to keep setting new 52 week highs on a daily basis.

Including the debt this is valued at what, about a PE of 2.5? Still looking very cheap and as it pays off the debt, the number the debt is reduced by should move to the shareprice, possibly with a little more since the size of the debt is currently a drag on the shareprice.

Fwiw Tom Winnifrith reckons Fox will get about £40m after lawyers costs in a settlement and the shares should be good for 10p. Anyone currently holding has a share in the probable settlement. Not after takeover.

Would be great to have a 10ish bagger from here if it comes to pass. Personally I have about 90,000 here so would be nice.

Yep thanks to today’s rise I’m only 50% down so only needs to double from here before I’m in profit.

Demand destruction not expected to kick in until oil hits $185 according to info shared by Pete Brailey, Chartered Energy Engineer.

If it’s nationalised by Vladimír Putin.

Sadly with cash having been at 0.8m at the end of May, unless things have looked up it could be placing ahoy unless they have found another way to raise some cash. I say this as a suffering shareholder - it's bottom drawer time atm.

Good update. Had a little top up with spare cash in my LISA.

The loss of the $105m of the sale is roughly equal to the drop in market cap from this fall.

I do hold these but am not buying more.

Reading between the lines I wonder if Ghana don't want chinese interests in their country.

Not really. The biggest issue is this: "the number of photobooths declined by 1,367 units" - that's revenue that is never returning. It's long term, structural damage.

Between Covid and the Mali uprising and a record breaking rainy season to be honest I am very pleased by what they are doing and that they are only missing planned annual production by about 5%... Mr Market is being harsh here. As Betts says the ounces are still in the ground and I certainly wouldn't be firing him for this impressive performance.

Unless GPM goes up in price, these have zero value...

4.45 to buy + 46p to pay for each share total cost 50.45p versus 51.50 for normal GPM shares.

Down nearly 9% today, is that bailout placing on the way?

At 30 June, cash £1.9m and trade payables £3.6m... with no finance it must be well past due for another placing...