Member Info for Tommo1985

Speaking personally I’d like a mix of dividends and buybacks.

Too big a dividend will attract the ire of greenies and government. However I like a yield, even if it were only 5%. And buybacks offer an exit for shareholders and puts a floor under the share price / reduces shorter fun. However at Harbour it didn’t improve the share price really. So a mix is preferred.

Also, if needs be buybacks are easier to cut than dividends.

Hi Folks,

Wondering when we get a vote to turn down this takeover? I hold via AJ Bell and don't see anything yet?

Can anyone please advise?

Screw it. I just sold out of HBR and bought more ENQ. That's what I think of their "note".

Between the fed throwing in the towel in an election year and Maersk pulling traffic from the Red Sea, things are looking much brighter. Even deramper Stevo is on holiday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67731853

As much as I’m not enjoying this share price or oil price, I can’t help but think… where is any new oil supply or investment coming from?

Might be less painful to hang out in Harbour whose crappy gas hedges are falling off and is paying an 8% dividend yield and doing 10% buybacks per annum though.

Opex was $25m different in a year. He was out $30m in two months. Still everyone is welcome to their own views.

Stevo said: "We need to set realistic expectations for the November update which will probably include a net debt position at end of October. The net debt will most likely be higher than at 30 June 23 due to Golden Eagle and EPL payments of $125m. Neutral to small negative FCF for 2nd half of year looks likely and this will be the pattern going forward "

Not sure if it's intentional but Stevo was $30m out in 2 months, and will be even more wrong on his full year prediction. He also had to be corrected on the bonds repayment terms despite apparently being a holder. I think he needs to stress test his negative opinions much more and personally I don't trust what he posts.

Annual FCF here after EPL is $220m - golden eagle final payment ($50m).

Wow. $60m of EPL paid AND debt down $30m in just 2 months. That's $45m a month - I know oil has dropped back a bit since then but still some going.

They started with $717m debt in 2023, now at $585m despite paying EPL and Golden Eagle.

Could do with getting production numbers up a touch though?

Worth remembering this hit 79p without financing news. For new arrivals or those looking for info this snippet from Gary Newman is useful:

“Based on that future demand, the Empire project looks pretty attractive on paper, with 87.5kt of copper measured and indicated resources, along with 238koz of gold, 7.6Moz of silver and 43.9kt of zinc, which is estimated to be valued at $1.36 billion, and with a further $616 million in inferred resources.

There is even further potential upside to that based on how the tailings are processed, and the company recently completed a study showing large upside from the addition of ATS leaching or acid leaching, compared to floatation only.”

Roll on financing.

Evening all.

RKH has a big oil find and a court judgment that will likely be paid out eventually (italy can only obfuscate for so long).

The issue I see is that their partners are Navitas. This is an Israeli entity. Will the Israelis be that keen to invest in oil companies thousands of miles away when they are in a war against at least Palestine, Syria, Iraq, some folks from Lebanon etc… and maybe most of the Muslim Middle East?

I was thinking of buying some more here - the court date to strike out Italy’s nonsense is soon - but there does seem to be a development risk here. Plus the issuance of in the money warrants may depress the share price until all are exercised and sold (jan 24) imo.

I hope they do nationalise us. Under the energy charter treaty we get to sue them for all the missing profits.

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/540379/united-blames-windfall-tax-for-north-sea-licence-sale-to-quattro-energy-termination/

And the former article for those without a subscription: https://archive.ph/PeFs2

The pressure is certainly growing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/06/north-sea-oil-gas-kings-speech-sunak-permit/

They can’t pretend to be friends of oil and gas having cratered investment by 90% of companies, and having caused production to fall 13% in a year. Anyone on the right will skewer their tax rises that exist long after any windfall ceased. Eg can you see the wool being pulled over Andrew Neil’s eyes?

There’s no point in pretending to be friendly to O&G when their tax policies are anything but and will be ripped apart at the election.

I was thinking about things earlier. Will Rosebank and other fields go ahead when there are 75% taxes, and decommissioning and interest expenses are not allowable against profit? If the government want to get these off the ground - and other developments - aren't they going to have to allow companies to make some actual return on capital?

One calculation you should bear in mind. It was $1.31 to the pound, it is now $1.21

Given our costs (70% of them according to the annual report) are in pounds, and our revenue is in dollars, that's a c9% reduction in opex on its own. Have you reduced OPEX accordingly?

Oil up another $2 overnight and a US warship has had missiles fired at it. Gonna smell shorters being burnt again tomorrow morning.

To be honest those being short (5.37%) of an oil stock, when there is a real possibility of a middle eastern war are nutso.

Their production has been c 46,000 barrels a day so far this year. You seem to have lost 8,000 barrels a day in your calculations.

At $91 Brent, the fcf per barrel is circa $25. We actually get a small premium to Brent for our oil. So about $1m a day profit. Minus EPL 35% (but including some deductions) it’s about $700,000 a day profit.

After we paid for golden eagle at 31st August we were at $615m. So should reduce our debt by c$84 by year end - depending when EPL payment due and also if we can average 90 by end of year (peak has been $97).

We are helped by the strong dollar v £, with our revenues in dollars and costs in £. We are also helped by paying off debt which we are paying 10%+ interest on. It’s also worth remembering that inflation itself is also reducing the real value of our debt provided we can cover the debts.

$0.7m x 210 days = $147m

$615 - $147 = $467m 1st April 2024