Member Info for Tommo1985

There's plenty of very good no-win no-fee litigation businesses willing to do business - if you have a case.

Caselaw I have read is that 78% taxes do not amount to an appropriation under the ECT, whereas 90% definitely does. I suspect the labour party has had advice re the 78% which is why they are not doing any more than that.

Rockhopper v Italy was an interesting one, as Rock had bought their Italian assets from MOG potentially with an awareness that Italy was against developing them. But they were able to successfully sue not just for their costs to buy MOG, or for MOG's exploration costs, but missed profit on the entire project. (It was not a very big project, hence damages were "only" $185m plus interest etc). This would be very relevant to us given our projects and that they were also purchased from Xcite etc.

Anyway, my point is in triplicate. We are protected by the ECT, the politicians have pretty much thieved as much as they can from ENQ and the north sea already, and states are going to have to be mighty careful what they do preventing drilling etc on areas that have been granted exploration permits and or production permits.

There is a certain irony the Energy Charter Treaty was drafted up to prevent (mainly British) oil and gas majors being robbed by 3rd world despotic countries. How the wheel turns.

Even more interesting, paragraph 2:

"The UK’s announcement that it intends to withdraw from the ECT therefore comes at a time of great uncertainty, amongst an ever-growing exodus from the ECT that raises questions about the ECT’s future as a whole.

In the short term, it is important to understand that the UK has not actually withdrawn from the ECT (yet). It has merely announced its intention to withdraw. In order for the UK’s withdrawal to take effect, the UK needs to make a formal notification of withdrawal, which will take effect one year after notification.

Furthermore, even when the UK actually withdraws from the ECT, the UK would remain subject to a 20-year sunset clause, which continues to protect investments existing at the time the withdrawal takes effect. However, any new investments made after the UK’s withdrawal would no longer benefit from ECT protection."

Not that I think it is all that important. Rockhopper v Italy gave compensation where exploration happened but production was blocked. There's been enough investment in Bentley and Bressay we are well covered even before production. However any investments made in the few months are definitely covered since the UK has not officially left yet even if it has given notice.

Indeed, while the UK left the Energy Charter Treaty a couple of months ago, they cannot escape the 20 year sunset clause that applies after they leave. We can make a lot of money in 20 years.

Nice to see windfall prices back, even the Labour Party can’t steal more than c78% without falling foul of the Energy Charter Treaty and case law that says too much tax equals appropriation which equals damages. We are in a very good position as oil hopefully heads to $100+.

Nice that having been hit by windfall taxes, we are heading back to windfall prices.

Lots of draws in the US giving an extra boost today:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Rally-Extends-As-API-Reports-Draws-Across-the-Board.html

I mean I've been here years, the shareprice is down, there have been no dividends and most of our hope for the future has been robbed by thieves. So I get why you would have to have an enormous discount to fair asset value to buy here.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/zimalco-group-logistic-transport-0077a01b4_team-zimalco-group-partenaire-de-hummingbird-activity-7180575586459795459-iPlj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

They are at least in discussions. Not surprising given the performance and histrionics from their other mining contractor.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Up-as-Iranian-Embassy-in-Syria-Leveled-in-Airstrike.html

Energy security continues to worsen as Ukrainians blow up Russian production, Houthis block Suez traffic and Middle Eastern wars look to escalate. Guessing Ed Milliband is blowing at windmills about now.

Doing a bit of maths, $15m is £11.9m so this works out about a 4.6% shareholder return in buybacks based on a m/c of £260m.

Lots of nice promises about operating costs coming down in this update too.

Should have let the warrants expire. More crony capitalism at work.

Do you reckon they could get a placing away... and what price would it be?

With oil up $5 in two days and more draws expected (the IEA has just thrown in the towel on their forecasts and revised demand up) then the best investment is to hold here and buy popcorn.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Soars-Past-85-As-IEA-Recalculates-Supply-Demand.html

We need this played out for a few months...

API Inventory Moves

Crude Oil -5.521 million (exp. +400,000)

Gasoline -3.750 million

Distillates -1.162 million

Cushing -998,000

SPR +600,000

This is also promising.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/12/rishi-sunak-new-gas-power-stations-blackout-risk-net-zero/

Increasingly I think buying / holding Enquest is a bet against the UK politicians and Green Energy grifters.

I can’t see Harbour making much investment in the UK for example at current tax rates or 78% with no allowances. Or quite a lot of other firms. When production nose dives and green energy leads to supply shortages… they are going to have to row it back aren’t they? How strong are the unions? How many votes are lost if the lights go out or bills keep rising and eventually voters realise it isn’t the oil and gas companies that are evilly profiting?

That said, it’s hard not to just go, screw this I’m buying Aramco or Cenovus or Rockhopper or anything else that is hopefully out of the reach of thieving Uk politicians?

I suspect we are going to see the EPL put in for another year. Four thoughts:

1) We are kicking off plenty of FCF and have tax losses so its pretty irrelevant several years into the future for us

2) It will ensure no more investment in the North Sea by most companies, because changing it yet again and labour promises to worsen it still further show us to be a banana republic and uninvestable.

3) We need to point out how ludicrous it is that tobacco companies that kill hundreds of thousands of people a year pay 25% tax, weapons manufacturers that kill hundreds of thousands of people pay 25% tax, banks that are making enormous windfall profits are paying 25% tax, while the oil manufacturers are paying 75% and not getting any windfall since prices are down 40% or so from the peak.

4) I'm actually glad they keep shafting the industry as it will collapse sooner, and they will either have to cancel the tax or the country will feel the pain of lower production, lower taxes collected, fewer jobs, having to import more, and relying on despotic regimes and the risks of security of supply. Let it be seen it has been destroyed by the useless government of both colours.

I’d expect them to get better M&A offers after Labour bang the tax upto 78% anyway. Happy for them to use 90% of FCF to pay down debt, drill holes in the ground, buy assets etc. But time to find 10% for shareholders. Religiously. Every year. At least.

Last year they paid off $236m of debt, $286m if you include the golden eagle payment.

This year their interest cost saving should be significant, and it’s not like they have been struggling with low oil prices either. Plus there has been the 15% of Bressay money incoming.

I’d be amazed and appalled if they didn’t throw shareholders at least 10% of their fcf.

Sh… are pro…p.. hets

************* reckon 5-7p in 3 years. if you want the reasons sign up. tbh i’d be happy for a lot less than that but a good chunk more than now!