Member Info for Tommo1985

Grok is still quite incompetent. Apparently it hasn't read the Enquest RNS of 12/2/25 which states:

· Net debt c. $386 million at 31 December 2024; a c. $95 million reduction versus 31 December 2023.

Think you are a bit behind the times. Enquest has paid its debt down from $1.7 billion to $400m. It also has enormous tax credits that would shield group profits for a decade. Meanwhile Serica has profits but would be paying loads of tax. It's a great merger. My main concern is that Serica keeps having production issues.

Perfect time for the oil industry to sack as many people as possible in the North Sea, blaming low oil prices and high and unjustifiable taxation.

Is Milliband finally getting sacked?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2021377/keir-starmer-tipped-sack-ed

There’s a few interesting squares to circle at the moment.

A) We want to defend Ukraine / up defence spending. However we have closed our last steel furnace, shut Scotland’s oil refinery, have offshored loads of industry and cut oil production 14% in the last year. Harland and Woolf (shipbuilding) went bust. How are we planning to rearm?

B) Everyone, especially the government who want the tax revenues, want growth. But we have the highest energy costs in the world, killing industry. 78% tax rates have killed the North Sea. Why would there be any growth?

My guess is more of a war footing and a need for growth is going to put net zero on ice. It’s just a question of how long it takes and whether / when we get lower taxes on oil.

If the North Sea basically goes on strike, no new investments, no infill wells, just cratering production at some point they will have to reverse. Finally Bressay and Bentley would be worth developing. Meanwhile we can continue doing $100m+ a year FCF, using our tax credits and paying down our debt.

So between the promissory note and the sale, total received by RSG would be $214m Aussie or £105m/$133m. Small mercies for shareholders, who have made a loss this year after the Malian government grabbed $160m.

I do note from the RNS gold price realised was $2383 so on current $2860 there will be a decent bump to profits going forward, assuming these are also not stolen.

The oil companies will have to re-apply for consent, however if it is not granted the Energy Charter Treaty is the redress as per Rockhopper v Italy only on a much larger scale. There Rockhopper (MOG actually who were bought by RKH) explored around the Italian coast and found oil, at considerable expense but were banned from extraction by politicians. RKH successfully sued and were awarded c£200m on a lost profits basis on the entire basin. Note it was not lost costs of exploration that was the remedy, but the entire lost profits. Ithaca and Shell can crucify Ed Silliband if he doesn't allow them to drill baby drill. Taxpayers are on the hook in a big way. Tempted to bottom drawer some Ithaca, 300 million barrels at X profit per barrel... thats a lot of compensation!

IIRC Bishop is on a £60k salary here so those two tranches are a good chunk.

They had said they expect mountain use permit in the next month and the directors are flying out there.

He’s putting his money where his mouth is…

Heck, someone just took 10 million shares at 0.725 at 11.53....

Once it has dwindled a bit more it will be easier for them to give it up. IIRC production fell 14% in the north sea last year, with almost zero new investment. As it keeps cratering, at some point the 78% taxes will be pointless and the unions might lean on them a bit harder too...

With Trump landing, the overton window has moved on nut zero significantly. Add in Rachel from customer services having much higher government debt interest costs, and Milliband may be hung out to dry...

Stevo - the question remains how to value Bressey and Bentley. At some point hopefully the windfall tax will end and/or oil prices will rise so much as to make it economic (perhaps hedging production to guarantee a profit). I can’t help but think at present they are uneconomic but that keeping hold of them may be worth huge amounts in future.

Well, it’s hard for the market to value this deal at present. There is no indication of costs or profit estimations or even an idea of how complicated it is to do.

I assume they are doing this deal to make something on it, and note it mentions using existing infrastructure which suggests it might be a good margin but we really know very little. How long will it even take to begin?

Still as I outlined earlier it looks to be about 6000 barrels extra per day in oil equivalent and a useful extra mix of gas vs oil.

70 mmcf = 12407 boed

With 50% to Enquest that’s a good size deal!

This was and is ludicrously undervalued.

Net assets of £52m, cash on the balance sheet prob c£4m, making £6m in profit and current m/c of £12m.

I know it’s based in African places you’d send your mother in law. But the disconnect is enormous here.

I highly doubt the government will be stealing half of the value - which is the amount the share price has marked the company down.

Thieving governments need to learn more theft means less investment and hence less tax revenue in future.

Even Labour Party rags are getting the picture.

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/19/theyre-killing-us-aberdeen-braces-for-end-to-north-sea-oil-as-clean-energy-plan-takes-shape

Market hates the news again, however this time I don't. They only need the money when they have sourced and agreed to buy what they need. Equally I can understand why the other party would want a clear idea how it is being spent.

Now they have the PFS they can point to the economics successfully.

The market doesn't love the news - the $87m NPV is only obtainable when calculating with used rather than new equipment and a pretty high copper price. Current market cap is $42.5m...

This project only gets interesting when they bring in mining at depth, not the open pit, and if they can find some more material and extend mine life. There's money to be made here but its for the patient not get rich quick folks.

Labour condemned in Aberdeen

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/aberdeen-councillors-vote-to-condemn-labours-ruinous-windfall-tax-plans