Member Info for Tommo1985

Ps it’s payday soon. Given our CEO has been buying millions of shares at higher prices, I hope Ammu gets his wish. Keep loading up, this is a clear buy at these levels and above.

Surprised Enquest has dropped given the US is still releasing a million barrels a day from its SPR and that can’t go on forever. Mixed with significant underinvestment in capex in the sector and no sign of that changing at the present we should be good for a multi year run of supranormal profits. Biden isn’t off to Saudi for the food. He’s going because he’s desperate and the price of energy has set fire to his re-election campaign. Unfortunately for him I don’t think the Saudi’s can pump much more even if they want to so he is wasting his time.

Bit confused when us PI’s can buy via open offer?

Not surprised it was oversubscribed from II’s there’s a good chance OM result is more than the market cap…

The right thing for Enquest to do is to down tools on decommissioning (which can’t be written off against WT) and start drilling (which can be). And be very vocal why they are doing this.

Thanks to our tax credits which shield us from tax except the new windfall tax, we have an effective tax rate of 25%. Hardly the end of the world given the current and future oil price environment.

The logical thing to do would be to do enough investment in the North Sea to reduce the 25% windfall tax as much as possible. But otherwise to invest outside the North Sea so as to avoid being hit once (if!) we go through our $3bn of tax credits. And to avoid a jurisdiction that is apt to issue windfall taxes at the drop of a hat.

£2m buy, 5 million shares in one go…

Are we a takeover target?

I’m up to 6 recommends over on their board. This is what I wrote:

“Anyone considered an Enquest Serica merger?

Enquest has $3bn in tax losses which will shield 40% of the 65% tax charges of the larger entity for several years. Meanwhile Serica has the ready cash to allow drilling etc in Bentley, Bressey etc. This then shields the company from the other 25% tax to save 65 out of 65.

It would also be a massive player in the North Sea with both oil and gas production. Probably on a much higher Pe than either are currently and better able to hold its own against thieving government than two smaller companies.

Any thoughts?”

Anyone able to really critique such a deal?

85% of their production is gas which I like, ditto the cash. I’d thought of buying some SQZ but didn’t like the price pre windfall tax drops. But I like their assets.

Any fundraising would be small and may not be needed at all if the italy decision is of a decent size and fairly soon. It’s probably 3 months until they need to start shopping for a placing given they have cash until q1 2023.

Would first oil really take 5 years, given the scale is smaller than previous versions? I doubt it.

Also what 2022 has shown us is that developing nations are not too bothered about ESG. Coal is currently shooting the lights out against renewables, oil demand is rising. And there is a young population in many countries whose income is rising (which leads to more demand for oil). Especially in Latin America or Africa which would be decent export locations for us.

Currently ENQ are paying 7-9% on their loans, and despite this are looking at c $800m fcf…

I’m guessing SQZ wouldn’t object to 7-9% interest on their cash and aren’t getting anything near that atm?

Anyone considered a merger with Serica?

Their cash pile would save us 9% interest on the loans or give Us the cash to step up drilling campaigns and save on the windfall tax.

Equally our $3bn in tax loses at least cover their 40% profit bill…

Plus a larger combined entity would likely have a larger pe, and their gas is currently shooting the lights out?

Anyone considered an Enquest Serica merger?

Enquest has $3bn in tax losses which will shield 40% of the 65% tax charges of the larger entity for several years. Meanwhile Serica has the ready cash to allow drilling etc in Bentley, Bressey etc. This then shields the company from the other 25% tax to save 65 out of 65.

It would also be a massive player in the North Sea with both oil and gas production. Probably on a much higher Pe than either are currently and better able to hold its own against thieving government than two smaller companies.

Any thoughts?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/983370/north-sea-windfall-tax-presents-oil-majors-with-open-goal-as-incentives-nearly-double-983370.html

On proactive Investor it says only applies to North Sea assets. So Malaysian assets not affected. Wonder if we can give up all our hedged production from the Uk area… also investment shield much better than before. Should be fairly neutral for ENQ.

Edit: In sealion rather than RKH itself...

I wonder if any UK firms could take or try to buy stakes in Rockhopper. The windfall tax makes any investments 80% cheaper... assuming they are making profits.

Time for Enquest to move to a better tax jurisdiction and sell their oil overseas.

+14% today, is this a bit leaky I wonder…

I think we owe a thank you to Joe Biden. At a time half our production is hedged, good old uncle Joe is selling off the us strategic petroleum reserve, a million barrels a day until September, to keep oil prices under control.

Then as our hedges roll off this is going to stop and indeed they will likely have to start buying oil to refill. From September oil prices up up and away…

Well done clever cloggs. It’s still state owned and enforceable against.

“Italia Trasporto Aereo S.p.A., trading as ITA Airways, is the state-owned flag carrier airline of Italy. It is fully owned by the Government of Italy via the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The airline flies to over 41 scheduled domestic, European, and a few intercontinental destinations (to be expanded).”

Once they have judgment they can seize italian assets anywhere in the world a good example being Al Italia planes and governmental buildings and assets overseas.

Any doubts see Cairn Energy case. Didn’t take them long for a much bigger sum…

You do realise that an award is due within 120 days of the recent RNS, and that litigation has been underway for the last 5 years.

If there was going to be an out of court settlement it would have happened.

Rockhopper will be able to enforce or else seize assets. The judgment is not appealable.

I wish some people would do some research before spouting nonsense.

Cheers.